Earnings Takeaways
UMC (2303 TT, UMC)
* Maintained constructive view despite lower TP; >90% UTR guidance and firm pricing support margin expansion into 2027, yet higher depreciation a partial offset
* Raised 2026 capex to US$2bn, driven by Singapore fab cleanroom and 12A P7/P8 shell construction.
* Product upgrade (22/28nm, AI, optics) remains the key earnings driver, with AI revenue targeted to exceed US$1bn within 3 years.
* Foundry landscape remains favorable as Samsung scales back mature nodes while AI/optics demand stays strong.
* Intel collaboration remains on track, with tape-out expected in 2027 on Intel 12; we removed our previous expectation for Intel 3/4 due to lacking engineering power for leading nodes
* 3Q26 guidance: shipments +high-single digit QoQ, firm ASP, GM in the mid-30%, UTR >90%.
Celestica (CLS US)
* Strong beat-and-raise: raised 2026 revenue outlook to US$20.5bn and EPS to ~US$11.3, reflecting improving AI demand visibility.
* 2027 revenue expected to grow >65% YoY, driven by hyperscaler AI deployments.
* CCS remains the growth engine (+84% YoY), benefiting from 800G/1.6T networking and AI compute platform demand.
* Google TPU share loss is largely priced in, with upside from other hyperscalers and AMD programs.
* Neutral
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