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Earnings Drive Both Bull & Bear Markets
Earnings Takeaways- Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) • 2Q26 revenue $460mn (+24% YoY), GP +72%, OP +125%; EPS $0.79 a beat, driven by higher utilization, better mix & accelerating silicon photonics demand
• 3Q26 guide: record $520mn (+31% YoY, +13% QoQ) suggests a strong growth 
• The co targets sequential revenue & profit improvement through 2026
• Raised 2026/27 EPS to $4.5 / $10; Maintain Buy, TP $260 (26x 2027E)
• $1.3bn contract SiPho revenue locked for 2027 from hyperscalers
• 2028 wafer order commitments expected to exceed 2027 levels
• Additional new SiPho customer qualifications underway
• Leading specialty foundry for NPO (near-package optics); CPO longer-term
• Capacity ramp focused on Japan Fab 7; NPO volume ramp expected 2H27 #TSEM# #Towersemi#
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Earnings Takeaways- AMD • Raised 2026/27 EPS by +8%/+23%; TP lifted from $640 → $700 on 45x 2027E or 31x 2028E • After-hours weakness as market digests high expectations despite solid results • 2Q26 revenue $11.5bn (+50% YoY) in line; EPS $1.66 slightly above consensus
• 3Q26 guide: $13bn revenue above consensus, GM 56% soft
• Mgmt sees datacenter >100% YoY growth in 2027 (CPU + GPU)
• MI450/MI455X on track. Helios ramping in 3Q/4Q26 with further step-up in 1Q27 • We see Helios rack supply chain build plan ROBUST (>20k racks 2H26-27) 
• MI500 expected to outperform Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra in hardware performance

• Business tracking well ahead of long-term model (>35% revenue CAGR, EPS >$20)
• Strength from AI GPUs (MI450/Helios/MI500) + server CPU TAM/share gains
• Margin wise, AI GPU margins to stay below corporate avg due to large-memory strategy, while CPU and Embedded recovery are positive drivers #AMD#
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Earnings Takeaways - MTK (2454 TT) * 2Q26 revenue NT$152.2B (+2% QoQ, +1% YoY) was above guidance. * 2Q26 GM/EPS in line: 46.2% GM; EPS NT$15.28. * Smart Edge +19% QoQ, offsetting smartphone weakness. * 3Q26 guide: Revenue NT$152.2–159.8B (flat to +5% QoQ) better than recent broker’s -5% but inline with us * 3Q26 GM: 46.0% ±1.5%, inline. * Maintain Buy: TP NT$6,420 * ASIC guidance raised: 2026 from $2B to >$2B. * 2027 ASIC share target: Raised to 15–20% (from 10–15%). * We estimate Zebrafish shipments to be 2–3 months earlier than Sunfish * MTK’s Triggersfish to drive inference share gains with larger SRAM (4x 250MB) in 2028 * Reit SpaceX is the likely 2nd datacenter ASIC customer * We est. MTK’s Icefish is by now the only official v10 project. * Smartphone better than feared; 2nm SoC to drive share gains in Android’a Ultra models #MTK# #Mediatek#
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Earnings Takeaways Note - FORM * 2Q26 beat across the board: Revenue $258.2M and 53.3% GM exceeded expectations * 3Q26 guided to ~$270M revenue with margins expanding to 54%. * AI recovery gaining traction: AI probe card share continues to rise, with stronger CPU and CPO demand supporting the next growth leg. * Rubin & Intel are key catalysts: Expect 10%+ share on Nvidia Rubin, further gains with Rubin Ultra/Humusfish, while Intel’s 18A ramp drives server CPU probe card demand and 20–30% pricing upside from node migration. * HBM to reaccelerate: Memory mix shifts toward DDR in 3Q26, but HBM revenue is expected to reach a record high in 4Q26 with next-gen AI platform ramps. * CPO momentum accelerating: Management expects CPO revenue to hit the high end of FY26 guidance by 3Q26, driven by Triton adoption and insertion leadership. * Valuation: Shares have corrected 38% from the peak and now trade at 25x 2027E P/E (vs. 33x/42x for MPI/Technoprobe), offering an attractive risk/reward. #FORM# #Formfactor#
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Earnings Note - AAPL Downgrade from Buy to Hold: * Valuation looks full after a 19% outperformance vs. Nasdaq in the past month; upside appears limited. * F3Q26 beat, F4Q26 guide softer: Revenue $109.4B (+16% YoY) and EPS $2.03 (+30% YoY) topped expectations, but F4Q revenue growth guidance of 9–11% YoY and 47–48% GM came in slightly below consensus. * iPhone remains the growth driver: iPhone revenue grew 22% YoY, Mac +29% YoY, while iPad and Services were softer than expected. * Apple expects broader Apple Intelligence rollout this fall alongside new OS releases and Siri AI enhancements. * iPhone 18 Pro demand risk: Higher 2nm silicon and DRAM/NAND costs could drive a $250–300 price hike for iPhone 18 Pro/PM, creating demand uncertainty despite resilient iPhone 17 builds. iPhone 18 Pro/PM suggests limited spec upgrade for consumers. * Still constructive on Fold: Expect the iPhone Fold (~7M units) to support the 2H26 product cycle, but remain cautious on mainstream iPhone 18 Pro demand due to limited hardware upgrades. #AAPL#
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Earnings Takeaways Note - ASE (ASX US, 3711 TT) * Reiterates Buy; TP lowered to NT$754. * 2Q26 inline: Revenue NT$191bn (+10% QoQ, +27% YoY), EPS NT$4.8 (+48% QoQ, +177% YoY). * Strong 3Q26 guidance: Revenue +21–22% QoQ, led by EMS +40% QoQ and ATM +11–13% QoQ. ATM margin to reach 28–29%, supported by AI-driven LEAP demand, high utilization, and pricing. * LEAP (advanced packaging) outlook raised: Mgmt believes LEAP revenue run rate is ahead of guidance and guide it to DOUBLE in 2027. * We lift 2026/27E LEAP revenue increased to US$3.8bn/7.7bn (vs. prior US$3.6bn/6.4bn). * AMD Venice (~5–5.5M CPUs supply chain builds) and Nvidia Vera to support Full Process growth in 2027z * Capex raised by another US$2bn. * we maintain 2.5D capacity forecast: 15K/45K/55K WPM by end-2026/27/28. #ASE# #ASX#
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Earnings Takeaways - QCOM * Maintain Hold; TP cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-mid term datacenter visibility. * F3Q26 mixed: Revenue $9.9bn (-6% QoQ/-4% YoY) slightly beat; non-GAAP EPS $2.21 slightly missed consensus. * F4Q26 guidance: Revenue $9.7–10.5bn, EPS $2.05–2.25; below recent buy-side chatters (~$11bn revenue). * Android headwinds continue with elevated wafer inventories and faster-than-expected decline in Apple modem revenue. * Co reaffirmed FY27/FY29 datacenter revenue targets of $5bn/$15bn+, with hyperscaler engagements and custom silicon programs progressing. * AI250 gains traction with four major U.S. CSPs, but the high LPDDR5 prices remain a key concern, limiting cost competitiveness. * Custom silicon on track; wafer production has started, with AWS expected to be the first wafer-based customer. * CPU roadmap remains a longer-term story; still years away. #QCOM#
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Earnings Takeaways UMC (2303 TT, UMC) * Maintained constructive view despite lower TP; >90% UTR guidance and firm pricing support margin expansion into 2027, yet higher depreciation a partial offset * Raised 2026 capex to US$2bn, driven by Singapore fab cleanroom and 12A P7/P8 shell construction. * Product upgrade (22/28nm, AI, optics) remains the key earnings driver, with AI revenue targeted to exceed US$1bn within 3 years. * Foundry landscape remains favorable as Samsung scales back mature nodes while AI/optics demand stays strong. * Intel collaboration remains on track, with tape-out expected in 2027 on Intel 12; we removed our previous expectation for Intel 3/4 due to lacking engineering power for leading nodes * 3Q26 guidance: shipments +high-single digit QoQ, firm ASP, GM in the mid-30%, UTR >90%. Celestica (CLS US) * Strong beat-and-raise: raised 2026 revenue outlook to US$20.5bn and EPS to ~US$11.3, reflecting improving AI demand visibility. * 2027 revenue expected to grow >65% YoY, driven by hyperscaler AI deployments. * CCS remains the growth engine (+84% YoY), benefiting from 800G/1.6T networking and AI compute platform demand. * Google TPU share loss is largely priced in, with upside from other hyperscalers and AMD programs. * Neutral #UMC# #CLS#
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Earnings boss fight unlocked 💸 This week’s volatility lineup: 🔹29th $MSFT + $META 🔹30th $AAPL 🔹31st $AMZN Wall Street has closing bells. Trade the action 24/7 on @HTXFutures Who’s watching? 👀
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