Ben Carlson
@awealthofcs
Trying to bring some common sense to the world of finance.
NEW BOOK:
687 Following 379.7K Followers
Animal Spirits: The Wobbly House of Cards
What if there is no AI crash?
The chart of the year
Why buy and hold is impossible
10 year return projections
Why did the Fed raise rates?
$30 billion for the Lakers?
The best 1980s movie & more
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Very cool to see Your Perfect Portfolio on Christine Benz's recommended list of books. All 8 of these are fantastic.
@awealthofcs @moneyover55 @JeanChatzky @MeasureTwiceMNY @MullaneySeanW @WadePfau @christine_benz
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Change in US household net worth from the end of 2019:
Total: +70%
Top 0.1%: +106%
Remaining top 1%: 63%
Next 9%: +57%
Next 40%: +74%
Bottom 50%: +129%
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Question from a reader:
I don’t totally understand bonds. Is the yield on the Agg the equivalent of a near guaranteed 5.2% annual return?
Some thoughts on 5% yields and why bonds are more governed by math than the stock market:
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Walking around Family Video / Blockbuster w/your friends in high school looking for a movie to rent is something I really wish technology didn’t take away from us even tho it has made our lives easier
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5% Bond Yields
"The starting yield plays a huge role in your forward returns, especially for short-to-intermediate-term bonds. For long-term bonds, interest rate movements and changes to inflation are a much bigger risk."
by @awealthofcs
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"Bonds, on the other hand, are driven more by math than emotions when it comes to forward returns." 🧮 - @awealthofcs
The Stock Market Keeps Saying Everything’s Fine
Long-term Treasuries now have a negative total return going back to the start of 2015
It's more than a lost decade for long bonds (and even worse after inflation)
This year:
Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7%
10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%.
Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%.
Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel
And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling
Why?
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This was too much fun. We talked about How Countries *actually* Go Broke and why Ray Dalio is wrong about the USA.
We also talked about how the US debt and inflation can have a very different impact on different bond durations and why bonds under 5 years actually look very attractive now.
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How to Talk to Your Clients About Ray Dalio
@michaelbatnick and @awealthofcs are joined by @cullenroche to discuss AI extinction fears, bearish hedge fund managers, why the stock market is so confusing, bonds looking attractive, Fed hikes, government debt fears and more LIVE from @FutureProof_HQ🌴🎙️
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Ask The Compound LIVE from Future Proof!🌴🎙️
@awealthofcs, @duncanhillphoto, Alex Morris, @billsweet & Barry @Ritholtz tackle questions on 5%+ bond yields, luxury spending, generational wealth, TIPS, baby boomers & building a “cowboy account” for speculative bets🎙️💸
Watch the full episode now on YouTube or find it on all podcast platforms🎬
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How to Talk to Your Clients About Ray Dalio
@michaelbatnick and @awealthofcs are joined by @cullenroche to discuss AI extinction fears, bearish hedge fund managers, why the stock market is so confusing, bonds looking attractive, Fed hikes, government debt fears and more LIVE from @FutureProof_HQ🌴🎙️
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It's not any one thing that makes real estate such a unique investment. It's multiple things stacked. @TheCompoundNews
#realestate# #historyhelps#
Ran into @TheStalwart at Future Proof
"People hate paying taxes even more than they enjoy making money." 😡 - @awealthofcs
"Peter Lynch once said: The real key to making money in stocks is to not get scared out of them"
--Risk and Reward by @awealthofcs
How to Help Your Clients Live a Rich Life 💰
@awealthofcs is joined by @dollarsanddata to discuss tax-aware long/short strategies, the psychology of paying taxes, when tax optimization can hurt your financial plan, and the tradeoff between maximizing wealth and actually enjoying it👇💸
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🍻 HAPPY HOUR WITH ANIMAL SPIRITS
Come hang with us at @FutureProof_HQ Festival! Drinks, good vibes, and the Compound crew. What more do you need?
📍 The Compound x Ritholtz Booth
🍹 5:45PM Happy Hour before the concert
🫡 See you there
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"If you are rich you should consider yourself lucky. There are more rich people than ever today but it’s still a tiny fraction of the world’s population." 🍀 - @awealthofcs
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