Ben Carlson
@awealthofcs
Trying to bring some common sense to the world of finance.
NEW BOOK:
690 Following 401.2K Followers
Tech stocks are crashing so bad that the Nasdaq 100 is only up 13.7% this year
The S&P 500 is up 12.4%
How will I feed my family?
This is the worst decade ever for bond returns
Yields are now as high as they've been in 20 years
I'm buying
Here's why and how I think more broadly about bonds in a portfolio:
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My AI agent is saving me so much time and making my life more efficient
So you’re spending more time w/family?
Not really
Exercising more?
Well no
Relaxing?
Nope
So you’re actually just spending more time working
Yes but it’s more efficient work!
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AI Stocks Aren’t as Expensive as They Look
The 10 year Treasury yield has gone from just under 4% to 5.3% this year
Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 14% in 2026
Why aren't rising bond yields hurting the stock market?
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Stocks at All-Time Highs, Sentiment at All-Time Lows
We’re not reading Digger reviews
He gave us Top Gun is what he did. He gave us Rain Man and Jerry Maguire
In this house Tom Cruise is a hero!
Why is Consumer Sentiment So Low?
"Households don’t care that the trailing 12 month inflation rate was 3.4%. They do care that consumer prices are up 30% since the start of 2020...People hate high inflation."
by @awealthofcs
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Why We Need Some Inflation
Nike is now back to 2013 price levels
81% off the highs
It feels like a piece of my youth is dying with this stock price
The Psychology Trap of Paying Off Debt
Since 1948 the US unemployment rate has been under 5% just 37% of the time
In the past 10 years it's been under 5% more than 83% of the time
And most of that was during Covid
In the 1980s the unemployment rate never once fell below 5%
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The Agg dates back to 1976
On an inflation-adjusted basis this cycle is the first time in history bonds had negative 10 year real return
This is the most brutal bond market of all-time b/c:
1. Rates were too low
2. They rose too fast
3. Inflation
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Why U.S. Debt Doesn’t Mean America Goes Broke
The Baby Boomer Sell-Off Myth
The Stock Market Is Powering Consumer Spending
Why Higher Rates Don’t Always Hurt Stocks
Why Rising Rates Aren’t Crashing the Stock Market
🎥 Full episode:
When Will the Next Bear Market Hit?
Considering the speed and magnitude of the move higher in interest rates the returns for US Treasuries this year really aren't that bad:
2 year +0.2%
3 year -1.0%
5 year -2.9%
7 year -4.1%
10 year -5.2%
20 year -7.1%
30 year -8.1%
These are really bad days in the stock market
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