Heisenberg
@Mr_Derivatives
Daily Stock Market Commentary & Charts. Both Long & Short Ideas. Options Writer. Stats, Data, Trends, Streaks, Patterns Recognizer. All Technical Analysis. NFA.
982 Following 636.5K Followers
$NVDA Jensen Huang timeline:
Nov 17th: Earnings
Nov 18th: Congressional briefing
Dec 1st: Nvidia GPU Tech Conference Keynote speaker
In all seriousness the stock market needs Jensen Huang to tighten his belt (pun intended) and really make sure his stock doesn’t spiral.
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$NVDA Stats:
At one point last week was down almost 27% ATH peak to overnight trough at $179.
At one point last week hit a Daily RSI that was the most oversold in 7.5 years.
Currently both candlesticks closed well below the lower Bollinger Bands.
Price is currently the furthest away from the 200dma above since the April 2025 Liberation Lows.
Is now significantly trailing $AAPL as world’s largest company and there is only 37 trading days left now.
Nvidia is no longer the largest weight in both the $SPY and $QQQ index. Apple is.
Earnings in 7 trading days next Tuesday Nov 17th.
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Also another fun $VIX stat:
Since 2017 annual close:
2017: Red
2018: Green
2019: Red
2020: Green
2021: Red
2022: Green
2023: Red
2024: Green
2025: Red
2026: Green (so far, just needs to close above 14.95)
So wonder what 2027 will end like…?
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Fun VIX stat time:
If the $VIX closed November today where it stands at 25.64, it will be the third highest monthly close for a November since 2008.
Here’s the interesting part:
The $VIX has never closed higher than 25.64 the following month in December since 2008. And in many circumstances the VIX was WELL BELOW it for December.
That’s 18 years of sample sizes or half of the VIX existence right there in data.
Extrapolate how you see fit.
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My entire newsfeed this weekend:
Citrini Research says to cover $NBIS now and begin shorting $IREN.
Giving me Citron Research vibes with this much shorting activity lol
I mean their names are almost identical.
JUST IN: Citrini Research advises clients to cover $NBIS short position and to go short $IREN instead.
"One quick swap we are making is $IREN for $NBIS on the short leg of the neocloud pair mostly to derisk on earnings (IREN announced and popped harder than the sector today, NBIS earnings is next week). IREN is also more stretched in balance sheet, which matters since financing reflexivity is a huge part of this."
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Very interesting $VIX chart!
This year is ALMOST matching the last 20 year VIX seasonality to a tee! Obviously not going to be exact, but this is the closest I ever seen it.
If this is the case, is the VIX crush coming starting as soon as next week and for the remaining 37 trading days in 2026?
Interesting right?! 👀
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The $VIX just had its highest weekly close since the March 23rd week.
If the $VIX closed the month of November today, it would be the highest monthly close since September 2022.
And if the $VIX closed the 2026 year today, it would be the highest annual close since 2008!
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Earnings next week.
While everyone else is focused on $CRWV $NBIS, I got my eyes set on Grocery Outlet and Noodles & Co.
I keed I keed.
All 👀’s on the neoclouds…
YTD:
$AAPL +26.33%
$AMZN +14.48%
$MSFT +12.19%
$NVDA -1.17%
$META -6.19%
$GOOGL -9.64%
$TSLA -18.23%
We have not seen this much disparity between the Maggy 7’s since 2018!
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$NVDA In the stock market we often use the phrases “bull trap” or “bear trap”.
Well in this situation, allegedly, Jensen Huang fell for the “honey trap”.
The signing of the boobies in 2024 was a tell if this is true lol.
Jensen, I emplore you, don’t give in to man’s biggest weakness! The AI frontier is right on the cusp, no distractions!
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‼️ BREAKING: US officials believe Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is the target of a Chinese spy plot.
They believe Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive seen at his side in Taiwan, is a Chinese intelligence asset.
President Trump has been briefed about the matter.
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$SPY $QQQ $DIA $RSP
Huge huge huge lines the bulls gotta defend here...
$WYNN +17%
$LVS +16%
$MGM +15%
In the last two weeks.
Decent bounce in the casino operators.
Casino operator stocks all hitting fresh 18 month lows yesterday.
$WYNN $LVS $MGM
At some point these highly cyclical names have got to bounce…right?
I mean if you look at WYNN and LVS since exiting the GFC, all they have been doing is ranging trading for years (on the monthly chart) lol.
We are definitely getting close to the bottom of that range yet again.
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Fresh 52 week lows today on some notables:
$AVGO
$ORCL
$COIN
$AXON
$DKNG
$ASTS
It’s been almost 2.5 months since the Fear/Greed meter registered a Greed reading.
It’s been almost 16 months since the Fear/Greed meter registered an Extreme Greed reading.
$MRNA hit another fresh multi year high today.
Meanwhile $SNDK is down 7 weeks in a row.
I mean at +250% ytd is still damn good for Sandisk, buuuut it was near +1000% ytd near the peak earlier this year.
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$BAC
The second largest bank in America just closed at a fresh 7 month low today…
At 1.5 yr lows relative to the $XLF.
And is now trading back to the same levels as January 2022.
What is going on here…?
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$SPY Yes November is still young, but currently where it stands the S&P500 is down 3 months in a row.
The last time it dropped 4+ months in a row was waaaaaay back in 2011!
So if November doesn’t bounce, we gotta believe December will?! Right? RIGHT?
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$KORU 3x Korea etf -90% from ATH’s
$SOXL 3x Semiconductors etf -86% from ATH’s
Not for the faint of heart.
Now with that said, these 3x “daily reset” bull etf’s work beautifully once the underlying truly bottoms and works on the next bull market cycle.
I would watch them soon.
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I think one of the great characteristics to have on Fintwit is to always (or at least try) to remain humble. Be a student always, never stop learning. Never make fun of those who are trying or starting.
Whether you have 10 followers or 100,000 followers, we are all still students at the end of the day in this massive dynamic Oasis type game (shout out to Ready Player One IYKYK) we call The Stock Market.
Stay humble! 🥧
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