Heisenberg
@Mr_Derivatives
Daily Stock Market Commentary. Both Long/Short Ideas. Stats, Trends, Patterns Recognizer. Mostly Technical Analysis. Not Financial Advice.
413 Following 625.6K Followers
Earnings next week:
All eyes on $MU and $NKE
Here we go again.
How perfect to reject right after market close.
Get ready for another Taco next week?
$SPX Last two FOMC's in Oct and Dec visualized.
Some things to keep in mind:
1) All 6 FOMC's this year on the 2nd day when they announce rate hikes or not, the SPX was red that day. 4 of the 6 were quite large red days too.
2) Notice 5 of the 6 FOMC's (ex April's) we had either a dip heading into the FOMC or we had a dip post FOMC. Meaning there's volatility surround the event. April was the only one where it just kept trending higher pre and post FOMC.
3) November is a super strong bullish month. And I wouldn't really want to get ahead of the Santa Rally / Post T-Giving rally either.
4) Which basically means there is only a window left next month. October or bust for the bears for rest of 2026.
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$TSM or what I call $NVDA's little bro, hit $455 highs today. Eeesh
$TSM Down 7 days in a row, worst losing streak since June-July 2022!
Sitting right at this critical support line dating back to the April 2025 Liberation Day lows.
Last time it was down 20% was earlier this year and it marked the bottom. Will it repeat once again?
Watchlist!
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Trading is not for everyone.
It’s ruined some of my sleep. For years.
Sometimes it makes me not want to socialize or go out on big L days.
There are days I feel like damn I stared at a screen all day, 25 trades deep, only to make a net $5 bucks for the whole day. Makes me question myself.
Trading is not easy.
And if it ever comes to a point where it even remotely jeopardizes the things you love and cherish most in life, like your friends and family, maybe it’s time to recalibrate your idea of “investing.”
Not saying quit the stock market, but definitely quit daytrading it. Passive index funds and chill my man.
I wish you well. Family and yourself (and God) above all else.
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@blondebroker1 @Mr_Derivatives Sunday night I will cash out the $50 I have left in RH. Then I will delete the app. Then I will delete X off my phone. Trading is nothing but toxic and devastating for me and my marriage. Good look to you. Not sure how you always do so well. I have been trading for years. No more
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$SPY on pace for highest monthly close EVER.
$QQQ on pace for highest monthly close EVER.
🚨 The $VIX has only had three up Fridays since May 15th. And one of em was barely up.
So only two significant up Fridays in the last almost 5 months!
Wild stat.
$META -4% today
$GME -7% today
Sorry my fault guys.
In the entire stock market with a market cap greater than $6B, there are only 3 names with a Daily RSI currently above 80. That's it.
$META
$GME
Are two of them.
Wow.
$SPY In the last 3 years we have had just 10 red months.
Sounds scary? Well not really. Let's look at the daily red month closes:
-1.28%
-5.20%
-0.86%
-0.22%
-0.87%
-5.86%
-1.27%
-2.73%
-0.89%
-4.03%
So of the 10 down months, we have had only 4 months where the month closed greater than -1.30%.
In other words, just 4 terrible months out of 35. Of course each and every dip was a BTFD opportunity obviously as we are nearing ATH's today.
Hard to be a long term bear innit? Can be tactical and time short term pivots, but long term wise a losing proposition.
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$MRNA Going apeshit lately. Almost $204’s.
$MRNA Getting tight here.
Something has to give and soon...
We have been stuck at Fear/Extreme Fear for the ENTIRE September month. Didn’t once even hit neutral at all. Lol.
We have not seen Extreme Greed since July 2025.
The $SPX was trading at 6,200 back in July 2025.
And here we are nearing 8,000 without once crossing over into Extreme Greed, and actually never even coming close to it either.
They call this the proverbial Wall of Worry the stock market loves oh so much…
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$SPX Today is day 40 without closing -1% or greater. Longest such streak in over a year.
$VIX Today is day 41 without closing above 18. Longest such streak in over a year.
Just last month when $AAPL put in that cute little double bottom at $300, said it would bounce to $325. Well it gave us more than that. Bounced all the way $345’s to a new ATH.
The Oct monthly calls went from $2 to as high as $12 a few days ago. 6x in a month with plenty of time to spare. Wow.
Check out @OptionsFunding_ if you want to use Prop Firm's $$ to trade options now, not just futures. No affiliate link.
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$AAPL Chart Update:
Last month I said Apple was due for a pullback around the $338 area. Now that it's corrected 12% from ATH peak to trough, I think it's time to get a bouncer.
Bulls gotta hold this important $300 whole number psychological mark. Even if a mini breakdown of it in a "false breakdown" is ok. But gotta bounce back immediately if so.
Looking for a near term bounce back to $320-$325ish as a backtest of the former r/s area. Then we re-evaluate there.
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$MCD currently highest dividend yield in 11 years.
$MCD P/E currently lowest in 6 years.
$MCD going through one of its largest drawdown currently in history.
@grok I’m just a charts guy, can you confirm this?
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Tale of two tapes today:
$MSFT +3.4%
$META -3.4%
In the entire stock market with a market cap greater than $6B, there are only 3 names with a Daily RSI currently above 80. That's it.
$META
$GME
Are two of them.
Wow.
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and call this a bust.
$META Love the stock, but this is not it.
$SPX 4 more trading days left in September:
Tomorrow you got a Friday where 15 of the last 18 VIX on the last trading day of the week were red.
Next Wednesday you got a EOQ Window Dressing where it went green 7 of the last 10 EOQ’s.
Use this information as you wish.
But stats are stats.
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I’m 3-0 on my public NFL picks. And these are just for fun. I’m just guessing.
But Packers ML for tonight TNF.
