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Earnings Season starts: 35% growth would not surprise!! The road to 10,000 runs through lower yields and earnings. My S&P 500 target of 8,000 for this year stands, with upside to 8,400. I set it this time last year, not last week, as Wall Street tends to do. For 2027, my target is 10,000. The case rests on earnings delivering while bond yields fall, supporting profit growth and multiple expansion. Earnings season kicks off this week, with third-quarter profits tracking towards 29.6% year-on-year growth. History suggests the final result could exceed 35%. Actual growth has beaten the quarter-end estimate in 37 of the past 40 quarters. But strong profits conceal weak participation. Only about 29% of S&P 500 companies have outperformed the index over three years, near the roughly 25% reading at the dot-com peak. AI is where investors are hiding. Warsh and the Federal Reserve are repeating the 2018 playbook: tightening into a midterm election. Expect good earnings, but a choppy market until after the vote. Once oil drops, I expect rates to follow, triggering a significant asset-allocation rotation into cyclicals. Wall Street’s consensus is that the 10-year Treasury yield will not fall. My call is 4% by the end of 2027. With S&P 500 earnings of $450, that would widen the earnings-yield spread from roughly 52 to 176 basis points at an unchanged index level. This is a valuation proxy, not a complete measure of equity risk. The market will be driven by earnings growth and Non inflationary supply side economic growth. Holding the original spread roughly constant implies an index near 10,000, approximately 22 times earnings. Ignore the doomers’ end-of-the-world debt refrain. We are in a secular bull market. Negativity sells newsletters; it does not generate returns. Earnings must deliver, and bonds must cooperate. If both do, today’s narrow advance can become a broader bull market, with cyclicals taking the lead. The opportunity lies in positioning for that rotation, not mistaking every correction for the end of the cycle.