We are getting a bounce from a short term oversold condition, but if the market is truly under distribution, a one or two day bounce will fail abruptly and the indexes will make new lows. The market's technical condition weakened yesterday as the major indexes broke below short-term support. Volume was lighter than the previous session on both exchanges, avoiding additional distribution. However, the weakness beneath the indexes was more pronounced. The expanding weakness is important because it suggests the pressure is no longer confined to narrow areas of the market. Pockets of strength included: Energy up 1.5% the strongest major sector over the past five sessions, advancing 2.6%. Oil & Gas groups continue to populate the leadership ranks, along with Coal. Software remains a notable source of relative strength, but also felt pressure, while Farm Machinery, Agricultural Chemicals and Agricultural Operations are emerging as areas worth monitoring. We bought $DE on Monday and shorted $IWM. The message here is not that the bull market is necessarily over. It's that risk has increased and the market now needs to prove itself. For now, selectivity is paramount. Focus on high-quality stocks emerging from sound bases, while reducing exposure to laggards violating key support. This is not an environment to force trades or rationalize poor action. Tactically, this is the time to cut laggards, trim extended winners and hedge where appropriate—not wait until the evidence becomes obvious to everyone . Until we see signs of repair, capital preservation takes priority. Let the market earn your exposure.

I've been a stock trader for 43 years. Based on my experience, the market will never outsmart me and take my capital during bear markets or sky rocket without me onbosrd for the ride during bull markets. That sounds very arrogant, doesn't it. But wait until you hear the reason why. Because I never try to outsmart the market. What i have learned is humility. The market is always right. And if I am yielding to its message, I can never be outsmarted by the very force I am respecting and staying in gear with. There's a fortune in this one paragraph.

If you want to succeed in life, you need to learn to think and act independently of the good opinion of others. No one cares about your future as much as you do. No one is coming to make you successful. No one is going to make you rich. That’s your responsibility. You have to make decisions based on your own passions, your own dreams, your own goals, and your own tolerance for risk—not based on what someone else thinks you should do. And yes, that includes your parents, your kids, your spouse, your friends—and society. Listen to advice. Consider opinions. Learn from people you respect. But ultimately, you have to live your life—not the life other people have chosen for you. If you want uncommon results, you have to be willing to make decisions that other people may not understand, approve of, or agree with. Your life. Your decisions. Your consequences. Your future.

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As I noted in my weekend report, the 10-year Treasury yield would likely breakout, creating a headwind for equities. Today that is starting to become a reality. Compounding the issue is a rise in oil prices. Yesterday morning we shorted $IWM while adding $DE and $FTI on the long side.

The S&P 500 Cycle Composite—which blends the one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle—is now entering what historically has been its most challenging stretch of the year. The composite points to a period of increased vulnerability from roughly mid-August through early October, before conditions improve and the historical pattern turns more decisively higher into year-end. I normally view seasonal and cycle work as context rather than a trading signal. The market is ultimately going to trade on the weight of the evidence in front of us, and price action always takes precedence over a historical composite. But cycle work becomes more meaningful when several independent factors begin pointing in the same direction. That's what makes the current setup worth paying attention to. We are entering the historically weak September period at the same time that interest rates appear poised to turn higher (the short end of the curve has already turned up). Meanwhile, oil looks as though it may be troughing, and the Energy Relative Strength Cycle Composite is approaching a period in which the historical cycle begins to favor improving Energy leadership. Rising oil prices and rising interest rates occurring together would represent a much different backdrop than falling yields and benign energy costs. Both can tighten financial conditions and pressure areas of the market that have benefited from lower rates and subdued inflation expectations. This is why I think the cycle work could carry more significance than it would on its own. It's not simply that "September is historically weak." We potentially have three forces converging: a seasonal/cyclical headwind for the broad market, an emerging cyclical tailwind for Energy, and the prospect of higher interest rates. When independent pieces of evidence begin confirming one another, I pay closer attention. None of this means the market has to correct. Cycles identify tendencies, not certainties. If the tape remains constructive and leading stocks continue to act well, price action gets the final vote. But with September seasonality, oil and interest rates potentially turning higher at roughly the same time, I would not dismiss the historical cycle message. The convergence is the message—and right now, it argues for keeping risk tight and letting the market prove that it can overcome these developing headwinds.

Open House - Here's my weekend take on the market posted every Sunday for our Minervini Private Access members. Minervini On The Market - Weekend Report - August 30, 2026 via @YouTube