Amid a rapidly developing #ElNino# event and long-term global warming, China is facing a complex mix of climate-related risks this flood season, increasing the likelihood of heat waves, uneven rainfall distribution and changes in typhoon activity. #climatechange#

El Niño is emerging even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong — a rare "Super" El Niño — by fall or winter.

An El Niño Advisory has been issued and you may have recently heard the term "Super El Niño". One of our meteorologists explains the terms NOAA uses to describe ENSO intensity and some basics of what El Niño is and is not. The forecast calls for El Niño to strengthen into the winter months. See the advisory: More at

A rapidly strengthening El Niño is raising the risk of costly weather shocks across global markets, threatening crops and supply chains. Explore where and what could be hit the hardest: 📷: Camilo Freedman/Bloomberg

A powerful “super” El Niño is developing in the Pacific and could drive global temperatures to new record highs. The climate phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific, was officially declared this month by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). What has caught scientists’ attention is the rapid pace at which it is intensifying. NOAA estimates a 63 percent chance that this El Niño will become a “very strong” event by late 2026, potentially ranking among the most powerful since records began in 1950. Some climate models project sea surface temperatures in key Pacific regions could rise more than 5.4°F (3°C) above average by year’s end. The significance lies in El Niño’s global reach. As the ocean releases stored heat into the atmosphere, worldwide temperatures typically increase. A very strong El Niño can add roughly 0.4°F (0.2°C) to Earth’s average surface temperature. While that increment may seem modest, it occurs against the backdrop of long-term human-caused warming. With the planet already experiencing some of its hottest years on record, this additional boost could push global temperatures into uncharted territory in 2027. The last strong El Niño, in 2015–16, contributed to what was then the warmest year ever recorded. However, today’s baseline climate is substantially warmer than it was a decade ago, raising the potential for even greater extremes. Beyond temperature records, El Niño influences weather patterns worldwide. It often brings increased flooding to parts of South America, East Africa, and the southern United States, while heightening the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America. It also tends to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Although no two El Niño events are identical and regional impacts can vary, scientists warn that the climate system is entering a phase historically associated with some of the most extreme weather events on the planet.