Amid a rapidly developing #ElNino# event and long-term global warming, China is facing a complex mix of climate-related risks this flood season, increasing the likelihood of heat waves, uneven rainfall distribution and changes in typhoon activity. #climatechange#

Here is another inflation risk factor I don't think the market has fully priced in yet - 2026 Super El Niño Iran conflict disrupted fertilizer supply. Now a Super #ElNino# is forming on top of it. → Two independent supply shocks → Same crop cycle → Same 2026–2027 window This is supply-driven inflation that monetary policy can’t fix. 🌡️ What @NOAA says: → 90%+ probability El Niño arrives Jun–Aug 2026 → 1-in-3 chance of a very strong event by year-end Peak pain in 2027 given 6–12 month production lag, with the most exposed being: 🔴 Sugar: India & Thailand production -20–30% 🔴 Cocoa: West Africa drought risk 🔴 Palm oil: Southeast Asia dry conditions 🔴 Wheat: Australia down ~9M tonnes in 2026/27 🔴 Rice: Indian monsoon failure risk The fertilizer double hit: → Urea prices doubled since Iran conflict → U.S. imports 90% of its potassium → Hormuz carries 1/3 of global fertilizer trade If the FAO food price index rises 50% by year-end ➡️ G7 food inflation hits double digits in 2027.

#OpinionLine# The super El Niño looming over 2026 and 2027 should not be seen as nature's punishment. It is a warning about the kind of world we are entering. Countries need to share climate and ocean data, coordinate responses to extreme weather, strengthen global food-supply chains and help vulnerable nations prepare before disaster strikes. #ElNiño# #climatechange#

El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that warms the Pacific Ocean and exacerbates extreme weather events, is reaching record strength in some areas. The FT’s John Reed explains how it could affect more than just temperatures — and what to do to prepare

El Niño is poised to help drive a potential record increase in the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide next year, as heat and drought weaken natural carbon sinks, the UK Met Office says