Here is another inflation risk factor I don't think the market has fully priced in yet - 2026 Super El Niño Iran conflict disrupted fertilizer supply. Now a Super #ElNino# is forming on top of it. → Two independent supply shocks → Same crop cycle → Same 2026–2027 window This is supply-driven inflation that monetary policy can’t fix. 🌡️ What @NOAA says: → 90%+ probability El Niño arrives Jun–Aug 2026 → 1-in-3 chance of a very strong event by year-end Peak pain in 2027 given 6–12 month production lag, with the most exposed being: 🔴 Sugar: India & Thailand production -20–30% 🔴 Cocoa: West Africa drought risk 🔴 Palm oil: Southeast Asia dry conditions 🔴 Wheat: Australia down ~9M tonnes in 2026/27 🔴 Rice: Indian monsoon failure risk The fertilizer double hit: → Urea prices doubled since Iran conflict → U.S. imports 90% of its potassium → Hormuz carries 1/3 of global fertilizer trade If the FAO food price index rises 50% by year-end ➡️ G7 food inflation hits double digits in 2027.