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Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing:
- Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer).
- AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality.
- Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples.
"X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x"
I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players.
But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver.
But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.
I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility.
Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America.
Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov.
And they’re the first comprehensive pure play foundry for SiC/GaN.
So it’s very compelling exposure as $NVDA pushes 800 VDC and as other power semi players from $NVTS and $WOLF are all re-rating hard.
For long term photonics exposure:
They were literally listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints… with $NOK / $NVDA evaluations right now.
And production ramp up in 2027/volume production H1 2028 expected.
So you have a company at $1.5B MC:
Critical both on the power semis front to the US government.
And critical to both photonics front to the EU government.
Coming off of a legacy drag cycle with auto and others (similar to Soitec).
I think I’d follow EU/US government signals for what’s critical infrastructure given expected dual continent subsidies…
Over random media analysts trying to cause unnecessary volatility saying it’s a memestock with no fundamentals.