"The details of the Advance Economic Indicators Report relevant for GDP tracking were mixed: trade data was softer than our previous GDP tracking assumptions while the inventories data was stronger. On net, we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.7%" - Goldman

#US# |🌍 #Globalization# isn't dying—it's reconfiguring! #IEA#'s @IEA_economics Lili Yan Ing says trade slowdown ≠ deglobalization. 📉➡️🔄 We've lifted millions from poverty, but inequality (look at U.S. wealth gap) fuels protectionism. 🏛️💸 Her fix? 3 priorities: 📊 Beyond #GDP—track# human capital & green transition 🛡️ Build domestic resilience via diversification 🤖 Govern #AI# & #tech# responsibly #Trade# #EconomicPolicy# #Inequality# #Sustainability# #HumanCapital# #Resilience# #Protectionism# #TrumpTariffs# #Reconfiguration#

MegaETH Economics Note 1 I want to start offering informal notes on the MegaETH economy so people can get a high-level view of what is going on. Please note all figures, tables, graphs, and commentary should be considered preliminary and not to be relied upon (including resolution of prediction markets). Since I wrote on the topic earlier, let’s kick off with an update on the USDM money supply. Full definitions of M0, M1, and M2 are at the bottom. We will ignore M3, since it isn’t relevant for now. April 30, 2026 (TGE Day) M0: ~60 million M1: ~360 million M2: N/A May 15, 2026 (Today) M0: ~51 million M1: ~653 million M2: N/A What we see so far is that USDM supply is overwhelmingly concentrated in Aave. Most of the M0 supply is in DEXes, serving as liquidity primarily on Kumbaya, World Markets, and Prism, in that order. The fall in M0 is appears to be driven by reduced LPing on those protocols, while the M1 supply grew quickly before leveling off at its current level. The main observed demand drivers look like looping USDe and for using USDM as a funding currency, since it can easily be converted to USDC and used to refinance higher-rate debt on other chains. Both appear to be at an equilibrium at the moment. I hesitate to make predictions, but if I were, I would expect M1 to consolidate around here until Aave or another lending protocol provide other offerings that would increase M1. There have been no collateral asset additions to Aave since USDe, and the rate environment on other chains has been settling down, reducing the demand to refinance foreign USDC debt into domestic USDM debt. It’s still early days on MegaETH, so as more apps come online - in particular DeFi apps - I would expect considerable movements in both M0 and M1 supply. It will take deployment of a protocol with time deposits before we begin to see any real difference between M2 and M1. M2 showing up will mean a structured credit market is beginning to develop. I’ll close by noting that the core strengths of MegaETH’s app portfolio at launch have been consumer-facing financial entertainment apps that don’t directly impact the USDM money supply, but increase the velocity of USDM. Given the unexpectedly large monetary base of USDM out of the starting gate, it won’t make discussion of the *overall* USDM velocity of money very high, but are producing legitimate MegaETH GDP. I’ll try to track GDP directly as it grows in relation to the monetary base. Definitions: M0 consists of USDM held by the public outside of deposit-taking protocols, centralized exchanges, and companies M1 consists of 1) M0, 2) demand deposits denominated in USDM at deposit-taking protocols, centralized exchanges, and companies, and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of Other Checkable Deposits and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) M2 consists of (1) M1, (2) time deposits and maturing assets (<6 months) denominated in USDM

At 6.6%, current YoY US Nominal GDP is at the highest YoY rate since 2005, outside of the COVID bounce-back period 1.5ppt higher on the 10yr? DB Since the early 1960s, 10 yr UST yields have typically tracked Nominal GDP

Trump promised to bring down the government’s debt. Instead, it’s continued to grow, passing 100% of GDP and on track to exceed its WWII record in the next few years. My @nytopinion Chart:

The 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global economic growth since the 1960s. Global GDP growth in 2026: 2.5%, well below pre-pandemic norms. "With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth," the World Bank's chief economist said in July 2026. The 1960s grew at 5%+ per year. The 1990s: 3.5%. The 2010s: 3%. The 2020s: currently tracking below 2.7%. The world is richer than ever, and growing more slowly than at any point in living memory.

U.S. debt surpassed 100% of GDP this year and is on track to reach 188% over the next 30 years, according to new analysis by @BBKogan and @econjared. They find the debt would instead be trending down toward 48%, were it not for the Bush and Trump tax cuts.