Change in the global macro condition that might happen and surprises the shit out of market in 2023: 1. Massive drop in inflation rate in a few months 2. Fed could stop the QT or cut the rate 3. Ukraine&Russian war ends

What a move in silver. Game on. We are in a structurally higher metal price environment driven by decades of underinvestment, constrained supply growth, and a global macro environment that continues to favor hard assets. Markets are still very slow to fully appreciate this shift.

Why did BTC move 4% today? Could be because core CPI came in flat month over month vs +0.2% expected, with core year over year at 3.5% vs 3.8%. 2 year yields fell 10bps, the biggest move in 10 months. Softer inflation data pulls forward rate cut expectations, and risk assets are repricing accordingly. Kraken Institutional stays on top of the global macro environment shaping crypto markets 🌎👀

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS!! Kevin Warsh will officially become the new Fed Chair on Monday. Every time a new Fed Chair stepped in, markets dumped 50–80% within weeks. But the real problem is the macro pressure building underneath the entire system. And nobody is talking about it. Here’s what’s happening right now: Japan bond yields are exploding higher. China has been steadily reducing exposure to U.S. debt. Treasury markets are becoming unstable. Oil is rising again because of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. And global liquidity is starting to tighten all at once. That is NOT a normal setup. This is exactly how fragility builds before major market repricing events. And there’s another detail most traders are ignoring: Every Fed Chair transition in recent history has coincided with major market drawdowns. Yellen - major correction. Powell - massive volatility and liquidity stress. Then Powell again during policy transition fears - another brutal dump. That’s THREE separate examples. And now we’re approaching another shift in leadership while the global macro is already weakening. That matters because markets hate uncertainty. More pressure on yields. More stress on refinancing. More pressure on risk markets. And now add geopolitical risk on top of all of it. If the U.S.-Iran situation escalates further, oil spikes higher. Higher oil means higher inflation pressure. Higher inflation means tighter policy expectations. And tighter policy is exactly what risk assets do NOT want. This is why the current setup is dangerous. It’s not one isolated event. It’s multiple macro stress points happening simultaneously. That combination has historically ended very badly for speculative markets. Especially crypto. THIS IS A WARNING. I’ve studied markets for 10+ years and called nearly every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post my next move publicly here before the crowd sees it. Because by the time it becomes mainstream news, it’ll already be too late.

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