BILL GATES WHERE THE ART THOU?!
I hope you're watching the Tesla Semi event tonight...
Tesla opens the Semi factory tonight at 6pm PT, live on 𝕏.
In 2020 Bill wrote that an electric 18-wheeler would probably NEVER work.
"The problem is that batteries are big and heavy. The more weight you're trying to move, the more batteries you need to power the vehicle. But the more batteries you use, the more weight you add, and the more power you need. Even with big breakthroughs in battery technology, electric vehicles will probably NEVER be a practical solution for things like 18-wheelers. Electricity works when you need to cover short distances, but we need a different solution for heavy, long-haul vehicles."
BTW, he also bet against the company... he shorted $TSLA.
In 2022 Elon texted him and asked if he still had a $ half-billion-dollar short position against Tesla.
And he did.
On December 17, 2025, Elon said that short was about 1% of Tesla's shares, and that it might have cost Gates over $10 billion by now. Elon even once said Gates told him in person, at Giga Texas, that a long-range Semi was impossible.
The Tesla team has been grinding over the years as people gave up on the Tesla Semi program... every year it slipped, more of them walked away.
In The Master Plan, Elon wrote the goal down on July 20, 2016... Tesla was NOT going to stop at cars. Heavy trucks had to go electric too, bc that is where a ton of the fuel actually gets burned. The team showed the Semi on November 16, 2017 and PepsiCo took the first ones in December 2022, hauling real freight with them ever since.
And tonight they are opening the factory.
The building is 1.7 million square feet, next to Gigafactory Nevada. Tesla sized it for up to produce 50,000 Semis a year. And Dan Priestley has said there will be many thousands by the end of 2026. So here are the facts.
1/ Standard Range is about 325 miles. Long Range is about 500. Both of those are at a full 82,000 lb load.
2/ It uses about 1.7 kWh per mile. A diesel Class 8 usually gets around 6 to 7 miles per gallon. A gallon of diesel holds about 38 kWh of energy. At 7 mpg that is a little over 5 kWh of fuel burned every mile. The Semi uses 1.7. The diesel is burning about 3 times the energy to move the same freight.
3/ The long range truck can take up to 1.2 megawatts. Tesla says about 60% of the battery comes back in 30 minutes. That is a driver’s required break, and on the 500-mile truck it is on the order of 300 miles. There is also a 25 kW outlet on the truck, so a refrigerated trailer can run off the battery.
4/ After the driver, fuel is one of the biggest bills a fleet has. $4 diesel at 7 mpg is about 57 cents a mile. Electricity at 15 cents a kWh and 1.7 kWh a mile is about 26 cents a mile. The direction is a lot less $ money per mile, and the price of electricity does not swing around the way diesel does. You also drop the oil changes, the diesel exhaust fluid, and the emissions equipment that keeps parking diesel trucks in the shop. Regenerative breaking slows the truck down, so the brakes last longer. It's clearly a financially better decision for businesses.
5/ Medium and heavy trucks were 23% of US transportation emissions. Transportation was the largest source of America’s direct emissions. These trucks are a small share of the vehicles, yet a huge share of the fuel. Take one diesel doing 100,000 miles a year at 7 mpg. That is about 14,300 gallons. The EPA puts about 22.5 pounds of CO2 in a gallon of diesel. Call it 145 metric tons a year, out of one tailpipe. The Tesla Semi also has no tailpipe, no diesel soot, no NOx on the street next to the warehouse, the port, or the school by the highway. A diesel is stuck burning diesel for the rest of its life.
6/ 800 kW is about 1,070 horsepower, from three motors. A lot of diesel tractors are 400 to 600 horsepower, and a full trailer makes them crawl on a grade while cars stack up behind. The Tesla Semi has the power to keep its speed. Tesla says those three motors can also catch a jackknife. The battery sits low, which makes the truck harder to roll. And Tesla Semis are designed for autonomy.
7/ PepsiCo has been running Semis since December 2022. Einride ordered 500, starting this month, across California, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, and Georgia, including Amazon freight. This week ZET SCALE, a shipper group with Microsoft and PepsiCo in it, picked Tesla as the primary truck for a program of up to 2,500 electric Class 8 trucks. Tesla’s own account said 2,500 Semis. Kenworth, Volvo, and RIDE are also named in that deal, so the split is one of the things to listen for tonight. IMC ordered 50 for California port runs. DHL and ABF already bought after real pilots. Semis spotted at the factory today already had customer logos on them - PepsiCo, US Foods, DHL, Einride, ABF, IMC, WattEV, OK Produce, and more.
So Bill, I hope you’re watching tonight.
The truck you said would probably NEVER work is now getting its own 1.7-million-square-foot factory ready to be built at scale.
The debate over whether an electric 18-wheeler can exist is over.
Now the question is how big this gets. And knowing Tesla, the Semi we see today is probably only the beginning.
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Thoughts on $NVDA later today:
Prediction:
- I don't see a revenue beat being a catalyst for NVDA.
- Everyone knows that revenue will be ~10-15% ahead of estimates thanks to GB300 (and GB200) volume expansion.
- Moreover, looking historically, recent beat & raise quarters have not been a positive re-rating catalyst for NVDA's share price... perhaps the quarter's already been priced-in due to a +12% move in the last month.
- On the flip side, maybe this time will be different thanks to the stock currently trading at extremely low valuations... I actually think broader institutional sentiment improved as of yesterday too with significant short covering which drove the share price up. Time will tell.
For next quarter:
- No surprises - guidance will of course increase thanks to additional ramps in rack volumes, plus first Vera Rubin orders filtering through.
- I expect gross margins to remain stable thanks to ASP increases offsetting continued memory price surges from $SKHY, $MU, and Samsung.
In terms of "qualitative" catalysts, there are a few areas Jensen and co. need to touch on though (common threads across the street):
1. HBM:
Per JPM/MS/GS (and wider industry comments), NVDA have made changes to HBM content for both Rubin and Rubin Ultra. This is of course due to memory supply being extremely scarce currently - but what does this mean for NVDA exactly? On the flip side...what does this mean for the memory players? Can NVDA keep passing on price increases to customers if memory prices continue soaring? I hope this is all expanded on on the call in some detail.
2. Competition such as $AMD, $CBRS, OpenAI Jalapeno:
Around ~40-50% of NVDA's revenue comes from four hyperscalers that are all deploying their own stuff - $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN Trainium, $META MTIA, $MSFT Maia. Plus OpenAI / $AVGO revealing benchmark results for their in-house Jalapeno chip which shows 1.5-1.9x more throughput per kilowatt + 1.7-3.6x lower end-to-end latency against NVDA's GB200 and GB300 rack systems. All of these factors have been working against NVDA recently, even just from a sentiment perspective. Jensen's updated views will be appreciated!
3. Funding partnerships:
A few weeks ago, NVDA announced a partnership with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR "to establish AI compute infrastructure financing platforms to mobilize over $500 billion of third-party capital." Again, what does this mean for NVDA? They quite clearly have sight over demand longer-term, but "circular financing" is still something that still comes up a lot these days (despite Jensen outlining why it's not in his X article).
Big day ahead, expecting some volatility thanks to last minute positioning adjustments.
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Honor Elizabeth Wainio: Four and a Half Minutes That Changed History
At 9:53 on the morning of September 11, 2001, a 27-year-old woman named Honor Elizabeth Wainio borrowed a fellow passenger's phone and made a call she never imagined she would have to make.
She was aboard United Airlines Flight 93.
The aircraft had been hijacked less than an hour earlier. Four terrorists had seized control of the cockpit. The pilots were either dead or incapacitated. Honor—known to family and friends as "Lizz"—understood the terrible reality unfolding around her.
She called her stepmother, Esther Heymann, in Baltimore.
She had only four and a half minutes.
And she used every second to tell the people she loved that she cared about them.
Just days before, Honor had been enjoying a trip across Europe. She had attended a friend's wedding in Florence, wandered the streets of Paris, shared meals with friends, and visited a church where she lit a candle in memory of her grandmother.
She once told her mother that seeing Paris was one of her dreams.
Now, sitting aboard a hijacked plane, she faced a future that had suddenly disappeared.
Yet those who heard her final call remembered something remarkable.
She remained calm.
No panic. No hysteria. No anger.
Only love.
By the time Honor made her call, passengers had already learned about the attacks on the World Trade Center. They knew two planes had struck New York. They knew another had hit the Pentagon.
They realized Flight 93 was not being hijacked for ransom.
It was being used as a weapon.
During her conversation, Honor comforted her family and reassured those she loved. Even in what she believed were her final moments, her thoughts were focused on others rather than herself.
Then, shortly before the call ended, events inside the cabin began to change.
Passengers had decided they would not sit and wait.
They were preparing to fight back.
At 9:58 a.m., Honor spoke the final words her stepmother would ever hear:
"I have to go. They're breaking into the cockpit. I love you."
The line disconnected.
What happened next became one of the most extraordinary acts of courage in American history.
The passengers and crew of Flight 93 had spent the previous minutes gathering information through phone calls. They learned about the attacks already underway and understood the likely fate awaiting them if they did nothing.
So they chose action.
Thomas Burnett Jr. called his wife multiple times.
Jeremy Glick spoke with his wife and described passengers discussing their options and taking a vote.
Flight attendant Sandra Bradshaw told her husband she was heating water to use against the hijackers.
Todd Beamer prayed with a phone operator before delivering the words that would echo across the nation:
"Let's roll."
Ordinary people, facing impossible circumstances, made an extraordinary decision.
They would fight.
At 10:03 a.m., Flight 93 crashed into a field near Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
Everyone on board lost their lives.
But the hijackers never reached their intended target.
Many historians believe the passengers' actions prevented an attack on either the U.S. Capitol or the White House, potentially saving hundreds or even thousands of lives.
Honor Elizabeth Wainio was born in Baltimore and raised in Catonsville, Maryland. She graduated from Catonsville High School before earning a communications degree from Towson University.
She built a successful career with Discovery Channel Stores, rising from sales positions into management through hard work and determination. Friends remembered her as energetic, optimistic, and deeply loyal. Her family described her as someone who embraced life with enthusiasm and joy.
She loved the Baltimore Orioles.
She loved her friends.
She loved her family.
At just 27 years old, she had an entire future ahead of her.
In the years following the attacks, Honor's legacy continued.
The Flight 93 National Memorial was established near the crash site in Shanksville, creating a place where visitors could remember the passengers and crew who sacrificed everything. A Wall of Faces displays photographs of each person aboard the flight, preserving their memories for future generations.
In 2014, the passengers and crew of Flight 93 were awarded the Congressional Gold Medal, one of the nation's highest civilian honors.
The medal carries a powerful inscription:
"A common field one day. A field of honor forever."
Towson University also created the Honor Elizabeth Wainio Memorial Communications Scholarship, helping students pursue the same educational path she once followed.
Her father, Ben Wainio, has often expressed a simple hope—that people remember who his daughter was and understand that her life, and her sacrifice, mattered.
Because Honor's story is not simply about tragedy.
It is about courage.
The quiet kind of courage.
The kind that stays calm when fear would be understandable.
The kind that spends final moments comforting loved ones.
The kind that chooses action when the stakes could not be higher.
September 11, 2001, remains one of the darkest days in American history. Nearly 3,000 people were killed. The Twin Towers collapsed. The Pentagon was struck. Four commercial airliners were hijacked.
Yet amid that darkness, the passengers and crew of Flight 93 showed the world something powerful.
Faced with overwhelming odds, they refused to surrender.
They called their families.
They said their prayers.
They told the people they loved goodbye.
Then they fought back.
Honor Elizabeth Wainio never reached San Francisco.
She never celebrated her 28th birthday.
She never returned home to share stories from Europe or enjoy another meal with her family.
But her courage—and the courage of every passenger and crew member aboard Flight 93—ensured that their final moments would be remembered not for fear, but for heroism.
A borrowed phone.
Four and a half minutes.
A final expression of love.
And a legacy that endures more than two decades later.
Honor Elizabeth Wainio.
Daughter. Sister. Friend. Professional. Dreamer.
And forever, a hero.
We will never forget.
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As AI agents accelerate coding, what is the future of software engineering? Some trends are clear, such as the Product Management Bottleneck, referring to the idea that we are more constrained by deciding what to build rather than the actual building. But many implications, like AI’s impact on the job market, how software teams will be organized, and more, are still being sorted out.
The theme of our AI Developer Conference on April 28-29 in San Francisco is The Future of Software Engineering. I look forward to speaking about this topic there, hearing from other speakers on this theme, and chatting with attendees about it. We’re shaping the future, and I hope you will join me there!
It is currently trendy in some technology and policy circles to forecast massive job losses due to AI. Even if they have not yet materialized, these losses certainly must be just over the horizon! I have a contrarian view that the AI jobpocalypse — the notion that AI will lead to massive unemployment, perhaps even rioting in the streets — won’t be nearly as bad as dire forecasts by pundits, especially pundits who are trying to paint a picture of how powerful their AI technology is.
Among professions, AI is accelerating software engineering most, given the rise of coding agents. According to a new report by Citadel Research, software engineering job postings are rising rapidly. So if software engineering is a harbinger of the impact AI will have on other professions, this expansion of software engineering jobs is encouraging.
Yes, fresh college graduates are having a hard time finding jobs. And yes, there have been layoffs that CEOs have attributed to AI, even if a large fraction of this was “AI washing,” where businesses choose to attribute layoffs to AI, even though AI has not changed their internal operations much yet. And yes, there is a subset of job roles, such as call center operator, that are more heavily impacted. Many people are feeling significant job insecurity, and I feel for everyone struggling with employment, whether or not the cause is AI-related. And many other factors, such as over-hiring during the pandemic and high interest rates, have contributed to the slowdown in the labor market, and the notion that AI is leading to unemployment is oversimplified.
In software engineering, I see a lot of exciting work ahead to adapt our workflows. It is already clear that: (i) As AI makes coding easier, a lot more people will be doing it. (ii) Writing code by hand and even reading (generated) code is not that important, because we can ask an LLM about the code and operate at a higher level than the raw syntax (although how high we can or should go is rapidly changing). (iii) There will be a lot more custom applications, because now it’s economical to write software for smaller and smaller audiences. (iv) Deciding what to build, more than the actual building, is becoming a bottleneck. (v) The cost of paying down technical debt is decreasing (since AI can refactor for you).
At the same time, there are also a lot of open questions for our profession, such as:
- In the future, what will be the key skills of a senior software engineer? And for junior levels, what should be the new Computer Science curriculum?
- If everyone can build features, what skills, strategies, or resources create competitive advantage for individuals and for businesses?
- What are the new building blocks (libraries, SDKs, etc.) of software? How do we organize coding agents to create software?
- What should a software team look like? For example, how many engineers, product managers, designers, and so on. What tooling do we need to manage their workflow?
- How do AI agents change the workflow of machine learning engineers and data scientists? For example, how can we use agents to accelerate exploring data, identifying hypotheses, and testing them?
I’m excited to explore these and other questions about the future of software engineering at AI Dev. I expect this to be an exciting event. Please join us!
[Original text: The Batch newsletter.]
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I need some help, I need you to give me some perspective.
I’m serious. Please help.
It seems like every day the Jew hatred around the world is escalating at unprecedented speeds.
I’m sure the algorithms play a significant role in my perception, but I also think that there is a serious escalation.
I am not going to lie, it depresses the heck out of me.
I am deeply concerned about the future of Jews in the diaspora and the Jewish people in general.
I’m trying really hard to come up with some sort of a script in which this doesn’t end tragically.
I see Jews being beaten in the streets of Europe, American podcasters embracing some of the most insane conspiracy theories about Jews, a western parliamentarian calling for military action against Israel, synagogues being vandalized and attacked constantly, American politicians calling for camps for Zionists and blaming Jews for all the world’s problems, and Jewish businesses being boycotted, among many other things.
The horrible lies about Jews showing up in my feed have become absolutely outrageously ridiculous. And it keeps getting worse. And based on the engagement on those posts, millions of people believe this insanity.
I truly don’t want to believe that we’re headed for tragedy, but I simply cannot come up with a script of how this ends well.
Please don’t turn this into an argument about whether we are back in Europe in 1935 or not, or whether Israel is any better.
I literally am asking you to describe a scenario where this doesn’t end in disaster for the Jewish people.
Is it going to get better when Trump is out of office? Is it going to get better when this war ends? I am seriously asking, please tell me how this doesn’t end badly.
I’m searching for some hope here.
Please describe the scenario to me of how you see this ending, in any other way besides Jewish life becoming impossible across the West.
Right now, the only thing that reassures me that things are going to be OK is that we have Hashem in our corner, other than that I’d be absolutely freaking out right now.
We’ve seen this exact script before. We’ve seen it over and over and it always ends the same way.
Tell me why I should not be scared.
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Two hundred and fifty years ago, a group of Americans signed their names to a piece of parchment and made a promise no nation had ever made before: that we're all created equal, endowed by our Creator with unalienable rights — life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
We're the only nation in history built not on ethnicity, or blood, or geography but on an idea. That's always been what makes us exceptional. We chose that path 250 years ago but that’s where the work began, not where it ended. Every generation has had to choose it again. At Valley Forge, at Gettysburg, on the beaches of Normandy, in the streets of Selma. Americans recommitted themselves to the principles on which our nation was founded.
Now it's our turn.
There's nothing guaranteed about our democracy. We have to fight for it, defend it, and earn it. Over and over, year after year. That's not a burden. That's what it means to be an American.
250 years in, we still haven't fully lived up to those words in the Declaration. But we've never walked away from them, and this July 4, I hope all of us can commit to one thing: that we never will. I don't believe we're as divided as we're told we are. I've bet my whole life on the American people, and I'm not stopping now.
Happy 250th birthday, America. Our story isn't finished. Let's keep writing it together.
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Elon Musk on a future where America and China grow more prosperous together while keeping AI safe for all of humanity
"I hope there's some reduction in tariffs and fewer restrictions on trade, and that we can have a period of great mutual prosperity with America and China
I think a really important thing that would be good for the safety of the whole world would be for China and the U.S. to agree on a platform for AI regulation that ensures safety of AI for all of humanity
I mean, I've seen it firsthand. Like, if you visit China and you see the amount of progress that happens from one year to the next, or even within a year, it's very visible
Like, you can see the new buildings, the new infrastructure, and it's also obvious to see that, just walking around the streets, the increased prosperity of the average Chinese citizen has increased tremendously"
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Today marked one month since I became Prime Minister.
Cutting tax on electricity bills. Capping bus fares at £2 in England. Making subscriptions easier to cancel. Cracking down on fake discounts. Giving 14-year-olds early access to technical education. Opening 159 new mental health centres. Investing to get all rough sleepers off the street this winter. Supporting farmers affected by the drought. Cutting business rates for pubs, clubs, and music venues. Shutting down 13 more asylum hotels. Giving mayors a share of income tax. Extending the 16-17 Saver Railcard. Bringing buses in the West Midlands under public control. Fast-tracking new homes near train stations. Cleaning up illegal waste dumps. Giving communities and councils more power over what opens on their high street. Opening No10 North. Giving disabled people 24/7 free bus travel. Delivering the biggest transfer of power, funding and responsibility from Westminster in a generation.
It's a start, but I’m not complacent. I know that people need more and I promise that I will do everything I can to make yours and your family’s lives better. We're doing things differently to give people more breathing space and bring back hope.
Here’s to the next month.
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