Warplanes launched a new round of airstrikes on Yemen's Houthi-held capital Sanaa on Friday afternoon, the Houthi-run al-Masirah TV reported, attributing the attacks to what it called "Saudi aggression"

Houthi-Saudi Escalation, Current Situation, and Forecast (General Access) ICOD-0900, 09/08/2026 BLUF The years-long running conflict between Yemen's Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia has entered its most significant period of escalation since the 2022 ceasefire. The Houthis are increasingly targeting Saudi military, energy and maritime interests while Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have engaged the Houthis in the most serious internal fighting seen since the ceasefire. The immediate escalation began in July after Saudi Arabia struck the runway at Sana'a International Airport as an Iranian aircraft carrying Houthi officials attempted to land. The Houthis subsequently launched missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and announced a naval blockade against Saudi-linked shipping. The conflict has since developed along two interconnected fronts. The Houthis are attacking Saudi territory and Saudi linked shipping while also increasing attacks against Saudi backed forces inside Yemen. Saudi Arabia has conducted retaliatory strikes against Houthi military targets, while fighting inside Yemen has intensified around Marib, Taiz and Hodeidah. On September 8, the Houthis conducted their largest reported attack against Saudi Arabia during the current escalation, striking areas around Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. Saudi authorities reported 73 people wounded and said several energy facilities temporarily suspended operations following fires and damage. Key Points • The Houthis are an Iran-aligned Yemeni movement that seized Sana'a in 2014 and established control over much of northern and western Yemen. Saudi Arabia intervened militarily in 2015 in support of Yemen's internationally recognized government. Major Saudi Houthi fighting declined substantially after the 2022 truce, although the underlying conflict was never resolved. • The immediate trigger for the current escalation was the July 13 Saudi strike on Sana'a International Airport. The strike disabled the runway and prevented an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. The Houthis responded with missile and drone attacks against southern Saudi Arabia. • On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade against Saudi linked shipping. On July 22, the Saudi flagged tanker *Encelia* was struck in the Red Sea. The incident was the first confirmed attack on a Saudi ship during the current escalation and marked a shift from threats against Saudi Arabia to sustained attacks on Saudi commercial interests. • Saudi energy infrastructure has become a major component of the Houthi campaign. ACLED recorded 16 Houthi attacks against Saudi assets between July 13 and August 14, including attacks involving seven oil facilities and six oil tankers. Some individual Houthi claims remain unconfirmed, but the broader pattern of attacks against Saudi energy and maritime infrastructure is established. • The Houthis have simultaneously increased attacks against Saudi backed Yemeni government forces. On August 6, Houthi attacks against government military camps in Hadramawt and Marib killed at least 30 soldiers, according to ACLED. On August 9, the Houthis launched a large combined drone, missile and unmanned explosive boat attack against the government held port of Mocha, killing seven people and damaging the port and other infrastructure. • Fighting inside Yemen has intensified further in September. Government forces have reported advances against the Houthis in parts of Hodeidah and Taiz, while fighting has also occurred in Marib and other areas. The available reporting indicates a significant increase in violence, but the conflict has not yet clearly returned to the large scale territorial warfare seen before the 2022 truce. • The September 8 attack represents the most significant Saudi homeland attack reported during the current escalation. Saudi authorities reported attacks affecting Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, with 73 people wounded and fires at several energy facilities. The Houthis said they used ballistic missiles and drones against Aramco facilities and a Saudi air base. • The conflict therefore now involves three overlapping concerns: attacks against Saudi Arabia, fighting between the Houthis and Saudi backed forces inside Yemen, and threats to Red Sea shipping around Bab al Mandeb. The latter connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a major maritime route between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal. Analyst Comment The current escalation should not yet be characterized as a return to the full scale Saudi Houthi war of 2015 through 2021. The more significant change is the combination of several pressure points that had largely remained dormant since the 2022 truce: attacks against Saudi territory, attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure, attacks against Saudi linked shipping and renewed heavy fighting inside Yemen. The Houthi campaign appears intended to impose costs on Saudi Arabia while constraining the ability of Saudi backed Yemeni forces to increase military pressure against Houthi held territory. The repeated targeting of energy infrastructure and shipping is consistent with an effort to increase the economic and political cost of Saudi involvement. ACLED assesses that the Houthis have calibrated attacks against oil infrastructure to inflict economic damage and pressure Riyadh for concessions. The geography is also becoming increasingly important. Fighting around Hodeidah, Taiz and the western coast places a significant portion of the renewed conflict near the Red Sea and approaches to Bab al Mandeb. At the same time, the Houthis are attacking Saudi infrastructure farther north, including Jazan, Najran and Yanbu. This creates a conflict that extends from the Yemeni battlefield into Saudi economic infrastructure and the maritime routes connecting the Red Sea to global markets. Saudi Arabia's dependence on its Red Sea infrastructure is particularly relevant while maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. The Houthis therefore have an opportunity to impose additional costs on Saudi energy exports by threatening an alternative route that has become more important during the current regional crisis. For the United States, the immediate operational implication is likely to be increased demand for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and defensive air and missile defense support. The United States already maintains an integrated regional air defense architecture with Saudi Arabia and other partners, including shared warning mechanisms and U.S. personnel working alongside partner Patriot units. Continued Houthi missile and drone attacks therefore have the potential to increase U.S. requirements for warning, tracking and defensive support without necessarily requiring direct U.S. offensive operations against the Houthis. A significant expansion of direct U.S. strikes should be treated as a separate escalation indicator rather than assumed to be the natural next step. Assessment The current trajectory indicates that the Houthi-Saudi conflict is likely to remain elevated in the near term. Both sides have demonstrated an ability and willingness to continue military operations, while the conditions that supported the relative calm following the 2022 truce have deteriorated substantially. Key Judgements - A continued Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia is likely in the near term. The group has established a recurring pattern of targeting Saudi military, energy and maritime interests. The September 8 attack demonstrates that the Houthis retain the capability and intent to conduct large missile and drone operations against Saudi territory. - Houthi attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping are likely to remain central to the campaign. These targets allow the Houthis to impose economic and political costs without having to seize additional territory. The repeated attacks against Saudi linked vessels and energy facilities indicate that maritime and economic pressure has become an established component of the current campaign. - Fighting inside Yemen is likely to remain a major driver of further escalation. Houthi attacks against Saudi backed government forces have increased substantially, while government forces have become more active against Houthi positions. Further increases in government military pressure would provide the Houthis with an additional justification for attacks against Saudi Arabia. - A sustained Houthi effort to disrupt Red Sea shipping is possible, but the current campaign remains narrower than the group's previous campaign against international commercial shipping. The current blockade is primarily directed at Saudi linked shipping, although attacks around Bab al Mandeb could have broader consequences if the campaign expands. - U.S. ISR and defensive air and missile defense requirements are likely to increase if the current tempo continues. The United States already has mechanisms for sharing threat information and supporting partner air defense forces. Continued Houthi attacks would increase the demand for warning, tracking and defensive support. Direct U.S. offensive action against the Houthis should be considered a separate escalation scenario. - The key indicator is whether the conflict remains contained or expands substantially around Bab al Mandeb. Continued attacks against shipping combined with sustained fighting around Hodeidah and the western coast would indicate that the conflict is increasingly becoming a struggle over Yemen's Red Sea coastline and the maritime corridor beyond the immediate Saudi Houthi confrontation. - A return to the relative calm that followed the 2022 truce is currently unlikely without a reduction in military pressure. Each additional Houthi attack creates pressure for a Saudi response, while additional Saudi or government military operations create incentives for further Houthi retaliation. Without a political mechanism capable of interrupting that cycle, the current elevated level of conflict is likely to persist. Sources:

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BREAKING: Trump made a deal with Yemen’s Houthis in a secret meeting, promising not to strike seized Houthi-held territory or support Saudi Arabia and Saudi-backed forces in any form, in exchange for keeping the Bab el-Mandeb open to shipping, except to Saudi vessels, per Reuters. The meeting, organized with Oman’s help and not made public, came days after Trump rejected MBS's request for US strikes on the Houthis. MBS called Trump twice asking for strikes and air support and Trump refused both times. US officials met representatives of Yemen’s Houthis at the US Embassy in Muscat on Sunday, days after the Houthis routed Saudi-backed forces and seized the entire Red Sea coast, with the Houthis telling the US they have no intention of attacking American vessels, remain committed to the 2025 ceasefire, and will not attack Israeli ships or any commercial vessels except those belonging to Saudi Arabia. The Houthi delegation included Mohammad Abdulsalam, who is under US sanctions, and the group has been a US-designated terrorist organization since March 2025.

Top Overnight News Oil fluctuated in jittery trading, as Saudi Arabia cut prices of its benchmark grade to Asia, the kingdom’s state producer warned about the risk of low stockpiles and as fighting in Yemen intensified: BBG Yemen’s internationally recognized government launched a full-scale military campaign to recapture Houthi-held territory after weeks of escalating conflict between the Iran-backed group and Saudi Arabia: BBG Flávio Bolsonaro surged to a surprise lead over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, making him the overwhelming favorite to win the runoff and take Latin America’s biggest economy sharply to the right: BBG The euro fell to its weakest level since May 2025, as France’s deepening fiscal crisis and the prospect of fresh political upheaval in the region rattled European markets: BBG Spanish PM Sanchez gambles on snap election to end parliament deadlock: BBG Democrats Inch Into Red Territory, but Have Problems on Home Turf: WSJ Intel stock slides as TSMC explores Terafab tie-up, analyst flags share losses: RTRS Savills’ Prime London index is down about 27% since its peak in 2014, as a cocktail of taxes, political and economic shocks have created more than a decade of misery for the owners of the city’s finest homes. When combined with the consumer price index, the real-terms drop is more than 49%: BBG US goes into midterm elections with a less dynamic form of full employment: RTRS US Senators Warren (D) and Hawley (R) are reportedly beginning a probe into how home and auto insurers process claims: WSJ. US Army tests counter-drone tech at Mexican border as cartel drone use rises: RTRS All B-1 Bombers Returning to U.S. From U.K. Base: WSJ Bank Stocks Are Haunted by the Ghosts of 2023: WSJ

2026, day 226 Good morning from Asia. ‘US eyes indefinite Iran naval blockade as oil supply shortfall deepens’ (Reuters); ‘US Treasury Secretary Bessent says US to apply measures 'never seen before' on Iran’ (JPost); ‘U.S. Sending Fresh Aircraft Carrier to Middle East Amid Iran War Strain’ (WSJ) - “USS George Washington is set to replace USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for more than 250 days”; ‘U.S. military has lost roughly 25% of its Reaper drones as Iran war depletes arsenal’ (WaPo); ‘Houthis claim drone attack on Saudi Aramco refinery’ (Gulf News); ‘MBS meets top US general for Middle East to discuss defense cooperation, reducing tensions’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Saudi Arabia considers backing Yemeni ground offensive to retake Houthi-held Red Sea coast’ (JPost); ‘Prince Khalid meets Iraq’s top general to discuss Saudi-Iraqi defense ties’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Board of Peace confirms Kushner to visit Israel and Egypt next week to discuss Gaza plan’ (ToI); ‘Fidan: Türkiye will take radical steps if Israel insists on Gaza stance’ (ClashReport); ‘US military launches first-ever multinational attack drone task force’ (Gulf News); ‘Trump Orders Navy to Restore Older Tech on Aircraft Carriers, Costing Billions’ (WSJ); ‘US floats prospect of joint strikes on Colombian armed groups’ (Reuters): ‘Oil, Hunters and Dr. Phil: How a Long-Shot Project Is Shaking Up Greenland’ (NYT); ‘Covert CIA program said to be behind mysterious attacks on Galápagos boats’ (WaPo); ‘What Venezuela's renewed ties with Israel could mean for Iran’ (JPost); ‘Britain warned it lacks firepower needed to defend shipping from Russia’ (Telegraph); ‘’Much faster than originally planned': Ukraine warns of Russian rival to Musk's Starlink’ (Politico); ‘Flight-tracking data shows continued Russian air bridge to sub-Saharan Africa’ (Defense News); ‘Tokyo issues angry response as Putin makes his first visit to the disputed Kuril Islands’ (Euronews); ‘Japan needs deterrence and renewal — not managed decline’ (FT); ‘Sirens blare and the streets empty out. Taiwan prepares itself for war’ (Telegraph); ‘Satellite images show 50 per cent boost to China's Type 054B missile capacity’ (SCMP); ‘Inside North Korea’s Operation to Conquer the American Job Market’ (WSJ); ‘North Korea slams joint US-South Korea drill: 'Will respond to new threat level'’ (Reuters); In geoeconomics, ‘Are global oil stocks big enough to weather another six months of US-Iran war?’ (Reuters); ‘Russia’s Diesel Exports Crash to Multiyear-Low amid Tight Global Market’ (OilPrice); ‘Can Takaichi's $2.3tn bet on industrial policy revive growth in Japan?’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Japan’s Inflation Paradox Is Creating Its Own Winners and Losers’ (BBG); ‘Trump enlists US tech groups for cyber privateering push’ (FT) ‘US accuses Chinese exporters of masterminding 'Great Transshipment Scam'’ (SCMP); ‘Trump administration to impose tariffs on drone imports, White House says’ (Reuters); ‘Bangladesh seeks homegrown drone industry with Turkey, China partnerships’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘Microsoft retreats in China, but Al boom helps it keep a window open’ (Reuters); ‘Brazil opens reciprocity process against US over tariffs’ (Reuters); ‘US also wants trade deal before August 19 tariff deadline, Canadian source says’ (Reuters); ‘US court backs Trump's power to close 'de minimis' tariff exemption’ (Reuters); In politics, ‘Older Democrats walloped by midterms anti-establishment revolt’ (Axios); ‘Top Democrat Targets Supreme Court for Changes’ (WSJ); ‘China ‘funding pro-Palestine marches in UK’’ (Telegraph); In markets, ‘Diesel Crack Spread Tops $98 a Barrel to Hit Record High’ (BBG); ‘US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001’ (FT); ‘Anthropic investors bet on $2tn valuation in record IPO’ (FT); ‘Chinese banks test repo-linked corporate loans to make pricing more market-based’ (SCMP)

TRUMP WEIGHED HOUTHI STRIKES — THEN HELD OFF President Trump considered U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen over the weekend after renewed Saudi requests for military help. CENTCOM reportedly prepared strike options, but Trump ultimately held off, amid concerns retaliation could threaten the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait. Market angle: opening a second major shipping chokepoint could drive oil prices sharply higher.

TRUMP TEAM HELD SECRET CAMP DAVID TALKS ON IRAN, YEMEN Trump’s top national security officials met for hours at Camp David on Friday to discuss next steps in the Iran war and Saudi-Houthi conflict in Yemen, Axios reports, citing three U.S. officials. The meeting was not publicly announced. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Monday that the Camp David meeting took place

Yemen's military -- backed by Saudi jets -- attacks Houthi targets including in the capital as they launched an ambitious counteroffensive to recapture all territory held by the group following its recent lightning gains.