Oh 2026, where will we be when you are finally over? Perhaps, given the 2024 > 2025 > 2026 exponential trend, in a 2027 where aliens are doing the chat-show circuit to discuss the big issues of the day or the small gossipy ones…. or perhaps in a reality even more bizarre or scary than that(?)

If you back 🇪🇺+🇨🇦, as 🇩🇪 elections saw the far left & far right smash other parties, now add 🇧🇷, where pro-Trump Bolsonaro, Jr. might win the October election, and… Kenya. BEUCK? EUBCK? CEUBK? KEUBC? Their ‘Partners for Multilateralism’ makes as much realpolitik sense.

2026, day 263 Good morning from Asia - another 2026 day with rumours of yet more war and of rising far-left and -right populism. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Trump on Iran: ‘My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up?’’ (The Hill); ‘Iran claims US preparing to resume attacks, threatens bases, supporting regional countries’ (JPost); ‘CIA chief meets Egypt’s al-Sisi in Cairo’ (Al Arabiya); ‘What’s behind Iranian authorities’ push for a mass mobilisation campaign?’ (AJ); ‘Qatari Premier Says Gulf States Have to Act Together on Iran’ (BBG); ‘Qatar Energy Chief Says Bessent ‘Wrong’ About Hormuz Future’ (BBG) - “Bessent is “wrong” when he said that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years”; ‘QatarEnergy says Hormuz crisis may delay some expansion projects’ (Reuters); ‘Houthis Push to Expand Territory as Tensions With Saudi Arabia Rise’ (NYT); ‘Trump says Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have agreed not to fight U.S.’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Pew poll finds majority of Israelis and Palestinian say two-state coexistence impossible’ (ToI); ‘Ukraine fires new ballistic missile at Moscow’ (Telegraph) - “Kyiv deploys domestically-produced weapon in largest attack on Russian capital since war began”; ‘Russia’s secret plan to supercharge kamikaze drone production’ (Politico); ‘Trump to meet with Zelensky as Russia-Ukraine attacks intensify’ (Axios); ‘European spy chiefs warn Moscow is planning more decisive action against NATO’ (Guardian); ‘Canada, France to co-operate on space launches as part of Carney’s pivot to EU’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Trump Ramps Up Bid to Dismantle International Criminal Court’ (WSJ) - “Administration prepares sweeping sanctions that would cut the court off from much of the global financial system”; ‘PM’s UN bet: Middle powers must step up as superpowers break the rules’ (AFR); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Grassley urges Trump to place embargo on diesel exports amid high prices’ (The Hill); ‘Former WTO head Pascal Lamy on the EU’s China choice: get a rebalance, or go protectionist’ (SCMP); ‘US, China Begin Trade Talks in New York Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit’ (BBG); ‘China's trade limits continue to bite into Japan's imports of rare earths, other minerals’ (SCMP); ‘Time to lower our elbows and make a deal’ (National Post) - “The delaying tactic of refusing to renegotiate CUSMA until the current American tariffs are addressed has clearly failed”; ‘Trump’s Greenland Deal Eases Way for U.S. Business on Arctic Island’ (WSJ); ‘China's Path to Tech Self-Sufficiency Accelerating’ (BBG); ‘China’s CXMT touts new chip manufacturing platform as close to ‘world’s most advanced’’ (SCMP); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Far left wins in Berlin, far right in Germany’s northeast vote: Exit polls’ (AJ); ‘German chancellor Merz vows to stay on despite ‘disaster’ in regional elections’ (FT); ‘Germany’s AfD partners with radical Italian ‘sister party’’ (Telegraph) - “Senior figures join forces as part of a ‘European Right that extends beyond state borders’”; ‘Meloni announces ban on burqa and niqab in Italian schools, cap on foreign students’ (Euronews); ‘Trump says 250ft arch will be ‘military complex’ with drones and snipers’ (FT) - “President claims national security justification for controversial Washington monument”; MARKETS: 📈 ‘Sovereign wealth funds stay away from China due to lingering property woes’ (Nikkei Asia) - “US cements dominance as AI companies attract investment especially from Middle East”; ‘France's debt climbs to highest since 1978’ (Euractiv); ‘Wall Street expects US to issue about $1tn of short-term debt as borrowing costs climb’ (FT); ‘Why It’s So Hard to Work Out What the Bond Market Is Telling Us’ (WSJ) - “Did bond yields rise because the economy is strong or because America’s credibility is on the line?”; ‘Big Tech uses guarantees to keep $300bn of AI exposure off balance sheets’ (FT); ‘China slow-walks yuan appreciation as US, Europe demand trade rebalancing’ (Nikkei Asia)

BREAKING: The Ukrainians have struck the Kaopotnya oil refinery in Moscow earlier today. They have now struck multiple Russia refineries in recent days after President Trump “claimed” Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking energy infrastructure. Yet further damage to the global energy markets.

2026, day 262 Good morning from and goodbye to Australia on a sleepy Sunday - but 2026 never sleeps. Not when the FT is talking about “the end of human existence” and Bloomberg says watch 50’s monster movies to understand AI. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Iran says it has conveyed conditions to re-engage in talks, end war with US’ (JPost) - “The conditions include ending the war on all fronts, unfreezing Iranian funds, and ending the US naval blockade”; ‘US working to keep Strait of Hormuz open and secure: CENTCOM chief’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Yemen’s Houthis Claim Attack on Saudi Capital After Fuel Depot Burns at Airport’ (WSJ); ‘Houthis say they targeted ‘sensitive sites’ in Riyadh, oil sites in Saudi port city Yanbu’ (AFP); ‘Houthis eye Yemen’s oil-rich east after seizing Red Sea coast’ (ToI); ‘Syria’s military is rebuilding, but foreign influence may slow security progress’ (FDD); ‘Al Jazeera fires 24 Gaza staff amid US lawsuit alleging Hamas, Islamic Jihad ties’ (Ynet); ‘Somali piracy rise tests China’s long-running Gulf of Aden mission’ (SCMP); ‘India Is Again Squeezed Between the Threat of Trump Tariffs and Russian Oil’ (NYT); ‘Turkey: We proposed Russia and Ukraine halt attacks in Black Sea, awaiting response’ (Reuters); ‘Putin accuses Ukraine of interfering in Russian parliamentary election’ (Reuters); ‘EU Allocates €100bn for Ukraine in 2028-34 Budget Plan’ (Kyiv Post); ‘Greenland, Denmark say Trump deal won't compromise sovereignty’ (Reuters); ‘Danes mock Trump for ‘status quo’ Greenland deal’ (Telegraph); ‘Trump’s Greenland deal aims to boost leverage at Xi summit, midterms: analysts’ (SCMP); ‘Carney’s Euro trip inflames Trump tensions’ (The Hill); ‘The economics of Alberta separation would be disastrous for everyone’ (National Post); ‘US state department under pressure to disclose Venezuelan oil takings’ (FT); ‘Inside Machado’s Plan to Return to Venezuela and Revive Its Democracy’ (WSJ) - “The Nobel laureate is planning her comeback from exile in Panama, setting up a clash with the U.S.-backed interim government”; ‘Koizumi and U.S. defense chief Hegseth agree to boost security cooperation’ (Japan Times); ‘Is Africa becoming a 'testing ground' for Chinese power projection?’ (SCMP); ‘Defense firms ride export wave, but supply chain stabilization poses new challenges’ (Korea Times); ‘‘Inspired by Israel? North Korea showcases mass production of suicide drones resembling Harop’ (Ynet); ‘The Rise of A.I. Is Raising Threats From Drones, Police Group Warns’ (NYT); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍✈️⛴️ 🚛 ‘World Running Short of Supertankers Threatens Long-Haul Oil Flow’ (BBG); ‘EU fuel prices hit records as ECB experts see diesel margins peak in October’ (Euronews); ‘US, China Trade Teams Set to Huddle in New York on AI, Iran’ (BBG); ‘Trump Announces an ‘AI Force’ After Industry Sounded Alarm’ (WSJ) - “The president calls for federal oversight of the industry as opposition toward AI grows among voters”; ‘Trump wants a new AI czar and an "AI Force" modeled on Space Force’ (Axios); The White House has officially characterized systematic abuses of the H-1B visa program as a "national security threat”: POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘‘There are no decent parties left’: Sham elections underscore Putin’s grip on Russia’ (Politico); ‘How Germany’s far right learned to put on a smile to win elections’ (Politico) - “The AfD is wrapping its dark vision of national decline in a package of hope and optimism”; ‘In Dubbo, the migration reality is a far cry from the political debate’ (AFR) - “Big regional employers rely heavily on foreign workers and scoff at One Nation’s view that unemployed Australians can take their place”; ‘Pip benefits bill set to double by 2030’ (The Times) - “The budget for disability payments is on track to reach £45bn a year, bigger than all but three government departments”; MARKETS: 📈 ‘How should investors position for the robot apocalypse?’ (FT) - “The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets”;

This is your reminder of the great circle routes that ICBM would take to hit the center of the USA from: Iran (Red); Purple (Pakistani) [NB: these are also the routes from most of the Russian ICBM fields]; Russia (Yellow); PRC (Orange); NORK (White). Adjust actual launch sites and actual targets as needed. You can do this yourself on GoogleEarth. Greenland is the shield for North America from most of the worst places in the world. To have it under utilized as such has always been a threat to the USA since the invention of intercontinental bombers and missiles. This is by far an exceptional net good. Well meaning people can argue about how we got here, but we got here. No one else made it happen.

2026, day 261 Good morning from Australia - and it’s yet another day of major geopolitical headlines from Greenland to Russia to AI to east Asia. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘Trump claims deal with Denmark for ‘permanent’ US security control over Greenland’ (AFP) - “From now on, no US adversary can EVER have a base in Greenland, have a military presence in Greenland, or make sensitive investments in Greenland, without our express written approval…We will immediately begin the process of developing a large Military presence in the appropriate part of Greenland, of which there are many.”; ‘Putin preparing to escalate war’ (Telegraph) - “European leaders fear president will mobilise more troops and increase hybrid attacks on Nato after latest sham election ‘European leaders prepare public for ‘intensified threat’ from Putin’ (Politico) - “However, NATO sees no risk of “imminent attack””; ‘Macron orders protection of France’s infrastructure against ‘Russian hybrid attacks’’ (AFP); ‘Macron to call emergency G7 meeting as energy prices spike and Russian hybrid attacks mount’ (Politico); ‘Trump signs Russia sanctions bill that opens China, India to tariffs’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Law gives US leader authority to impose 100% levies on Moscow's top energy buyers”; ‘The world must force Russia to end mass starvation in occupied Oleshky’ (Kyiv Independent); ‘Drone hit Russian nuclear plant cooling tower, no fire: IAEA’ (AFP); ‘Trump touts plan for new U.S. base in Poland as NATO ally's leader warns of "real risk" from Russia’ (CBS); ‘Ukraine, Russia are done with Steve Witkoff. Trump sees no problem’ (Kyiv Independent); ‘More U.S. troops have died amid Iran war than Pentagon has disclosed publicly’ (WaPo); ‘US military had close call after using AI for false intelligence report, sources say’ (CNN) - “the intelligence report….A Chinese ship in the Middle East was transporting components of a nuclear weapons program…. was “entirely false.” But it also “almost started a war,””; ‘OpenAI's Sam Altman to brief UN Security Council next week’ (Reuters); ‘Australia must train AI at home to protect national security: ASD boss’ (AFR); ‘South Korea’s FM stresses to Rubio its intent to contribute to restoring free passage in Hormuz’ (Reuters); ‘Italy to escort its own ships through the Red Sea over Aspides delays’ (Euractiv); ‘Collision near Sabina Shoal sparks fresh escalation between China and the Philippines’ (SCMP); ‘CGA plans a historic 2027 visit to Philippines’ (Taipei Times) - “Coast Guard Administration (CGA) ships are scheduled to sail to the Philippines bearing the words “Taiwan Coast Guard” in a high-profile visit in October next year”; ‘Takaichi seeks Trump meeting early next week ahead of US-China summit’ (Nikkei Asia); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘Xi’s edge over Trump on AI’ (FT) - “The US president’s anti-regulatory stance fails to take into account that China is catching up”; ‘Irish Finance Minister says Hormuz closure, not Ukraine, causing energy crisis’ (Euronews); ‘Record US diesel prices squeeze farmers; food prices may rise’ (Reuters); ‘Shipping’s New Normal: Slower Trade, Higher Costs, Bigger Profits’ (gCaptain); ‘US, China Weigh Reducing or Eliminating China’s LNG Tariff’ (Reuters); ‘Trump Extends $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee as Legal Fight Plays Out’ (BBG); POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Germany’s Merz girds for a post-election fight for political survival’ (Politico) - “One conservative official predicts “all hell breaks loose” if the ruling CDU fails to win any seats in the regional election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania”; ‘Trump Says He Is Banning CNN, MS NOW and Politico From the White House’ (WSJ); ‘From vodka to vanished names: Russia’s parliamentary election gets off to a strange start’ (Ynet); MARKETS: 📈 ‘OpenAI expects to burn $280bn by 2030’ (FT); ‘The BOJ’s Balancing Act With Bessent Is Only Going to Get Harder’ (BBG); ‘White House attacks Fed official after review of Silicon Valley Bank collapse’ (FT)

2026, day 261 Good morning from Australia - and a REALLY 2026 day so far today…more war - but when(?), AI warfare, energy in focus,…. and ‘First newts, now bats: Piddington migrant camp dealt another blow’. GEOPOLITICS: 🌍🔥 ‘The era of AI warfare has arrived’ (FT); ‘OpenAI discloses new ‘concerning’ model behaviour’ (FT); ‘Trump tells Axios he's approaching major crossroads in Iran war’ (Axios) - “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me."; ‘Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy says it struck oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz’ (ToI); ‘Trump administration approves $24bn sale of F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia’ (FT); ‘The New Offensive Raising Oil Prices and Complicating Trump’s Iran War’ (WSJ); ‘US investigating Iran ties to cyberattack on energy tankers bound for American ports’ (WSJ); ‘China presses Iran to help rein in Houthis after Saudi appeal, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Russia and China veto US proposal for UN experts to keep monitoring sanctions on Iran’ (AP); ‘Iran war puts future US military presence in Middle East in question’ (The Hill); ‘Ghalibaf’s maths missile at Trump decoded: Is Iran fixing US interest rates?’ (AJ); ‘Trump’s pressure on NATO is reshaping Europe’s defenses. Will it break the alliance?’ (Reuters); ‘Is NATO ready to fight? The Ukraine war is raising doubts among military analysts’ (Reuters); ‘Russian plans include strikes against Ukraine’s allies: Tusk’ (AFP); ‘Russia says new US sanctions, if signed by Trump, would make Ukraine peace deal harder’ (Reuters); ‘Trump says progress made toward establishing US Army base in Poland’ (Reuters); ‘Carney lays out case for deeper alliance between Canada and the EU’ (Globe & Mail); ‘A European alliance deserves more seriousness than Carney's treated it with’ (National Post); ‘Carney’s ‘meaningless’ EU offer unravels’ (Telegraph); ‘Canada applies to join Europe-led military partnership for Northern Seas’ (Euractiv); ‘China, US may unveil measures to boost military ties when Xi visits Washington’ (SCMP); GEOECONOMICS: 🌍 ✈️ ⛴️ 🚛 ‘China Stockpiled Oil, and Now It Could Dominate the Energy Landscape’ (NYT); ‘European leaders rush to counter looming diesel price surge as Saudi pipeline attacked’ (Euronews); ‘Is Fuel-Export Ban Trump’s Last Option to Ease Prices? How It Could Work’ (WSJ); ‘While Canada fights Trump, Mexico is preparing to eat our lunch’ (National Post); ‘US trade chief pressed Brazil to review Anglo American nickel sale to China’ (SCMP); ‘US Said to Delay Excess Capacity Tariffs Until After Xi Summit’ (BBG); ‘Japan, US in talks to build chip factory as part of tariff deal’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Total value of project could reach $19bn; GlobalFoundries to operate new plant”; POLITICS: 🗳️ ‘Farage’s mega-donors mask the wider threats to British democracy’ (FT); ‘Ten shades of Putin: Russia votes in first Duma election since Ukraine invasion’ (Ynet); MARKETS: 📈 ‘Turkish authorities rush to stem fallout from stock market scandal’ (FT); ‘Trump Says He Backs Warsh After Central Bank Raised Interest Rates’ (WSJ); ‘Yen's BOJ Day Comes With Many Lines-in-the-Sand’ (BBG); ‘Britain is now a global outlier on interest rates’ (Telegraph); ‘Wall Street warns trading boom is losing steam’ (FT); ‘Rising Rates Will Make Private Equity’s Bad Year a Lot Worse’ (WSJ); ‘Crypto shifts focus to Trump regulators after coming up short in Senate’ (The Hill)

We have seen a structural power shift, yes. I fully agree that the only way to lower inflation now is to lower energy (and other commodity) prices … which demands winning physical control of them, and often the hard way. The recent joke is that rates strategists have had to become oil strategists… and I add, ‘who have to become military strategists.’ Central banks are not so central anymore…

If “associate membership” is created and 🇪🇺 starts a trade war with 🇨🇳 next month to reduce its massive bilateral deficit, will 🇨🇦 match those tariffs or press for more free trade with 🇨🇳 as a sovereign nation? Asking for a friend learning about applied economic statecraft…

RABOBANK’S NEW BASE CASE ISN’T PEACE IT’S PROLONGED STALEMATE That matters because the energy shock has spread beyond Hormuz. The East-West pipeline can be repaired. But Bab el-Mandeb is now a war zone, tanker insurance is rising, Fujairah is exposed, and even “safe” Gulf transits are becoming less certain. Repairing a pipeline is not the same as restoring reliable export capacity. That’s why Rabobank now sees Brent around $105–107 in Q4 and still near $100 in Q1 2027. The market is no longer pricing one damaged route. It is pricing an increasingly unreliable Middle East export system. 👇 Rabobank has moved decisively away from the idea that the Middle East energy shock will simply unwind once one piece of infrastructure is repaired. Its base case is now a prolonged stalemate: no decisive military outcome, continued threats to oil, products and LNG, and a persistent geopolitical premium. The East-West pipeline attack and the Houthi move into Bab el-Mandeb have turned what was largely a Hormuz problem into a multi-chokepoint export-system problem. That distinction matters. Even if Saudi Arabia repairs the East-West pipeline within a month or two, Rabobank says the Red Sea is now a hot war zone and those flows can no longer be treated as reliably available. Insurance rises, voyages lengthen, demand shifts toward non-Middle Eastern crude, and physical barrels command a premium to futures. Fujairah’s 1.8 mb/d of bypass capacity and even the CENTCOM-coordinated “dark transit” system must now be viewed as exposed rather than secure. So this is no longer mainly about repairing damaged infrastructure. It is about whether the routes themselves remain commercially and militarily usable. That is why Rabobank can have a “stalemate” as its base case and still raise oil materially. A stalemate does not mean normalization. It means persistent friction, unreliable capacity and recurring disruption—the sort of environment in which the physical market stays tighter than headline production capacity suggests. And their risk is still asymmetric. Rabobank explicitly says its forecasts assume a relatively contained escalation; further damage to energy infrastructure could push prices substantially above the base case. #Oil# #Brent# #Hormuz# #BabElMandeb# #SaudiArabia# #Iran# #Houthis# #Energy# #MiddleEast# #Geopolitics# @TheMichaelEvery @pumpingoilniron

Just as bond yields start heading higher again with oil we get this “unexpected” (ie, expected) news headline. Who is then next? Well, who is a western ally and so far hasn’t pledged that 3.5% of GDP total, “because reasons”? Let’s start with the letter ‘A’…. (& ‘N’)….

Who knew that immigration, emigration, and tourism could all be parts of economic statecraft? Anybody who knew anything about the topic: EVERYTHING can be! China will now restrict overseas trips for mid-to-senior-level civil servants, CCP cadres, SOE employees, and private citizens working in sensitive areas. By contrast, the West will open its doors wide for anyone going in and out. Question: which works better in a Cold and hot war environment, and why? Years ago, I lived in a Moscow suburb that had until then been a closed Soviet science city: its highly-educated population had been shielded from others for national security reasons. Question: With contacts in elite universities saying many western scientists are underpaid, autistically apolitical and focused on their research, or utopian or anti-western thinkers, and universities focus on making money, how long until a western politician argues their scientists and experts need to have restrictions imposed on travel and contact with outsiders, etc.? Economic statecraft is not just tariffs!

2026, day 258 Good morning from over Australia. ‘US in direct contact with Yemen's Houthis, VP Vance says’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Saudi Crown Prince to meet Egypt's al-Sisi in Cairo on Tuesday’ (Al Arabiya); ‘US imposes Iran-related sanctions on Russia's VTB’ (Reuters): ‘Oil tanker exploded after colliding with mines in Hormuz, Iran's Fars reports’ (Fars); ‘Saudis Seek to Boost Hormuz Oil Exports as Key Pipeline Attacked’ (BBG); ‘Saudi Arabia may be just days away from not being able to export much oil’ (BBG); ‘Burnham Mulls Saudi Support Amid UK Fears of Houthi Economic Hit’ (BBG); ‘Israel unlikely to improve Saudi ties despite Houthi threat, expert tells 'Post'’ (JPost); ‘Hezbollah trying to establish footholds within gaps in southern Lebanon's Yellow Line, IDF reveals’ (JPost); ‘Golan Druze increasingly embrace Israel, reject Syria in seismic shift triggered by tragedy’ (ToI); ‘Donald Trump claims Russia and Ukraine have agreed energy truce’ (FT); ‘Russia Is Churning Out Smart, Cheap New Weapons Faster Than Ukraine or the U.S.’ (WSJ); ‘EU states to raise game as Arctic becomes strategic geopolitical frontier’ (AJ); ‘London gains largest weapons factory since Second World War’ (Telegraph); ‘Canada seeks Ukraine loan role to deepen EU ties’ (FT); ‘Carney seeks 'unique alliance' with EU’ (Telegraph); ‘Ottawa seeks tighter ties with EU without sacrificing sovereignty’ (Globe & Mail); ‘Mark Carney's elitist quest to turn us into Europeans’ (National Post); ‘Japan's LNG needs stymie response after Putin's disputed-island visit’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘U.S. has deployed first space-based weapon, Air Force secretary says’ (WaPo); ‘China Also Thinks Al Could Kill Us. But First, It Wants to Match the U.S.’ (WSJ); ‘China's Top Spy Chief Warns Artificial Intelligence Is a Threat to Party Rule’ (NYT); ‘How the Clash Between Money and Safety Created a Monumental Crisis for AI’ (WSJ); ‘Trump says a strong, smart president is the only "guardrail" Al needs’ (Axios); In geoeconomics, ‘EU trade chief to visit Manila to finalise Philippines trade deal’ (Euronews); ‘Germany explores pharma proposal with team Trump as tariff threat looms’ (Politico); ‘TD and Scotiabank join other banks in promising to deploy over $250 billion dollars worth of capital’ (Financial Post); In politics, ‘In a drab New Jersey building, Trump finds his voter fraud 'smoking gun'’ (Telegraph); ‘Second judge freezes Trump mail ballot plan as Supreme Court ruling looms’ (The Hill); ‘Nationalist leaders say U.K. union "coming to an end"’ (Axios); ‘Swedish election leaves government up for grabs’ (Euractiv); In markets, ‘Rate increase baked in, attention turns to BOT's outlook and mood’ (Japan Times); ‘Brics leaders act to hedge - not revolt - against US dollar dominance’ (SCMP); ‘China's Hunt for Barrels Threatens Oil Market Balancing Act’ (BBG); ‘Ten-year Treasury yield hits 5% for first time since 2023’ (FT)