China's control over InP exports threatens AI data centre rollout (Reuters). With 70%+ control over global output. Just as a reminder on beneficiaries: -> JX Advanced Metals: ~10% InP share -> $AXTI: InP >50% Q1'26 rev -> $LITE: maybe the cleanest large cap beneficiary -> $COHR: ~1 yr early to 6-inch InP production -> $IQE: InP is "material growth driver throughout 2026 and beyond" Sumitomo Electric win in non-Chinese InP but they're so huge that InP revenue is basically a rounding error to them. Personally treating $AXTI as a trading vehicle separately to my core hold rn after taking decent profits over the past few weeks. As core holds, I have preference to $LITE / $COHR / $IQE over $AXTI for InP-thematic exposure w/ less regulator risks. - $LITE for lower China supply beta. - $COHR for higher InP permit torque if u want it. - $IQE for the most asymmetry

Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.

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Another massive week for PayFi and for the partners building alongside us. Headlines ↓ 1️⃣ @SolanaFndn, @Ripple, Visa, and Mastercard join x402 Foundation, pushing open payment standards and agentic platforms. 2️⃣ SBI Group and @DigiFTTech launched JX, bringing Japanese capital markets to Solana, enabled by ecosystem participants including Huma. 3️⃣ @galaxyhq launched GOFR (Galaxy Onchain Financing Rate), enabling borrowing at an optimized blended rate across top DeFi venues. 4️⃣ @HSBC and Marketnode completed Hong Kong’s first tokenized structured product issuance, testing tokenization across issuance, PayFi, and servicing. 5️⃣ The House Financial Services Committee holds a CLARITY Act field hearing tomorrow, pushing the market structure bill toward a Senate vote. 6️⃣ JCB and @Circle are exploring USDC for cross-border payments and merchant transactions. 7️⃣ @Tether led a $7M round in Pact Labs to grow adoption of USAT. 8️⃣ @dragonfly_xyz and @firstmarkcap co-led @velocityxyz_ $38M round, backing a platform that lets companies hold and settle funds in stablecoins across existing banking rails.

双兔兔祝你好运连连🫶✨ Have double bunnies to wish you good luck 🫶✨✨ Get full set HD pics at my Gank: It’s the first ever collaboration album of Viku and me! 💓 Blanc @Viku_li Noir @nekoneko_jx Photo: Vona #nikkenoir# #nikkeblanc# #nikke# #nikkecosplay#

$AXTI $LITE $COHR If MicroLED stalls, the gain goes to lasers, as Serenity says. But the two lasers he names grow on different wafers, and only one of them is short. VCSELs are gallium arsenide parts for short multimode links, the slot MicroLED was aiming at. The CW lasers that light co-packaged optics, and the EMLs in today's pluggables, are indium phosphide. InP has "only three primary suppliers," per AXT's 10-K: AXT in China, and Sumitomo Electric and JX Advanced Metals in Japan. The laser makers already say where the pinch is. Coherent: "indium phosphide capacity continues to be our primary constraint." Lumentum said in August that ultra-high-power laser demand "has surprised us" and that it has spent three months trying to "secure even more substrate supply." More supply is coming, mostly after 2027. Sumitomo plans about 3x its InP substrate capacity from 2024 to 2028. JX is spending up to ¥120bn over four years to reach 7 to 10 times its fiscal 2025 level. In China, Yunnan Germanium is going from 150,000 to 450,000 wafers a year and Vital Materials to 3 million by August 2029, and those wafers leave China under dual-use export licences. The average 4-inch InP substrate in China was RMB 6,250 in early August, up about 45% since January. So a MicroLED setback lands mostly on the wafer that's already short. AXT reports on Oct. 29, and its licensed exports to Europe are the line we'll read first.