Notable takeaways from Kinsus’ August commentary:
- High-end ABF production remains constrained by T-Glass shortages, preventing the company from capturing approximately 10–15% of its potential monthly revenue.
- Kinsus plans to expand high-end ABF capacity by approximately 25% in 2027. The expansion will involve installing new equipment at its Taiwan facilities rather than converting existing BT lines, and the required material allocation has already been secured.
- BT and memory: Memory products currently account for roughly half of BT substrate revenue. U.S. customers have raised their DRAM and NOR demand forecasts for several consecutive quarters.
- Optical communications: The transition from 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T requires finer circuitry and better signal integrity, driving demand for mSAP. Optical-communications substrates have higher layer counts, ASPs, and margins, with the project expected to generate a gross margin of approximately 20%.
- BT utilization: Currently around 75% and expected to reach 85% by year-end. Existing capacity still has sufficient headroom, so there is no immediate need for expansion. Kinsus plans to begin discussing 2027–2029 capacity requirements with customers in Q4 and will make investment decisions based on actual orders. If optical-communications demand ramps meaningfully, the company could consider further expansion as early as mid-2027.