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Summary of MTK (2454) Update - 100% EMIB, 100% Share in v9 •Street-high TPU estimates → raised TP to NT$6,650 (from NT$6,420) •MTK fell 7% yesterday on noise around potential v8t delay, EMIB/substrate supply issues & v9 share-loss fears — we take the opposite view •v8t/Zebrafish remains intact; demand well above 2027 CoWoS allocation of 180k, suggesting extended life cycle vol. •EMIB-T / substrate yields & supply tracking better than expected, at ~50% currently. Yield rate in every stage in report •EMIB Substrate delivery in small-volume ~100k mid-2027 → mass-volume by 4Q27 💯 100% EMIB-T for v9 (Humufish, Triggerfish). on-track substrate yields + suppliers dedicated support. Also no reason for TSM to be a back-up or 2nd source. 💯 100% market share in v9 (Humufish for training, Triggerfish for inferencing). We expect no other v9/2nm projects during the time period •Life-cycle volume for v9 expected >5m (vs bears at >2m) •2nd ASIC project (likely SpaceX ASIC, not AI6) more visibility expected in 4Q26 •Datacenter ASIC forecast raised to NT$2.8bn / $18.6bn / NT$75.7bn •Near-term watch: engineering tape-out in Nov (passing bar not high; chipset testing at TSMC largely on track) •For v10: still expect MTK to win major SKU Icefish (AMD+MRVL or AVGO competing for Merope) #TPU# #MTK# #AVGO# #AMD# #MRVL# #v9# #intel# #intc#
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Summary of MTK (2454 TT): NVDA’s $3.5bn investment + intact TPU progress 📈 Nvidia to invest $3.5bn in MediaTek via its $3.9bn CB. Alphabet also participating in the CB. * This marks Nvidia’s first investment in a Taiwan-listed company. * Nvidia/MTK expanding collaboration across AI infrastructure, local AI and automotive. * MTK to adopt NVLink Fusion for custom XPU integration. * Collaboration spans NVLink/NVLink-C2C, NVHBM, advanced packaging and SerDes. * MTK/Nvidia aim to provide chip-to-“””rack infrastructure”””, not just silicon. 🐟 Humufish EMIB progress is better than feared. * Japanese substrate suppliers’ yields improved from 20–25% → ~45% on recent testing vehicles. * Yield remains on track toward the first-stage 55–60% target. * Humufish lifecycle volume appears revised up, not cut. * Foe now, We maintain 4.6m Humufish/Triggerfish units in 2028E. * Triggerfish’s large SRAM should help MTK expand into AI inference. We expect MTK to gain TPU share across volume, value and workloads. 🤝Nvidia + Alphabet backing reinforces confidence in MTK’s datacenter trajectory. 📈 Remain positive #NVDA# #GOOG# #TPU# #Mediatek#
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Earnings Takeaways - MTK (2454 TT) * 2Q26 revenue NT$152.2B (+2% QoQ, +1% YoY) was above guidance. * 2Q26 GM/EPS in line: 46.2% GM; EPS NT$15.28. * Smart Edge +19% QoQ, offsetting smartphone weakness. * 3Q26 guide: Revenue NT$152.2–159.8B (flat to +5% QoQ) better than recent broker’s -5% but inline with us * 3Q26 GM: 46.0% ±1.5%, inline. * Maintain Buy: TP NT$6,420 * ASIC guidance raised: 2026 from $2B to >$2B. * 2027 ASIC share target: Raised to 15–20% (from 10–15%). * We estimate Zebrafish shipments to be 2–3 months earlier than Sunfish * MTK’s Triggersfish to drive inference share gains with larger SRAM (4x 250MB) in 2028 * Reit SpaceX is the likely 2nd datacenter ASIC customer * We est. MTK’s Icefish is by now the only official v10 project. * Smartphone better than feared; 2nm SoC to drive share gains in Android’a Ultra models #MTK# #Mediatek#
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BTW SPOILER BLIZZCON COSPLAY 🥰