The latest market moves show that AI does not trade as a single theme. Weekend slowdown and safety headlines pressured capex-sensitive chips, data centers and optical names. Cybersecurity and software rallied, while cloud platforms held up. Different exposures, different reactions. The same headline can support several distinct positions across the AI stack. #USStocks# #ArtificialIntelligence# #TechStocks# #MarketAnalysis#

The Oil Market Is Disconnected From The Physical 🔊 On Friday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye Asset Management's R. Patrick Kent @Hedgeye_HELS and Ryan Ricci @HedgeyeAI explained why a down day in oil is not the all-clear the tape treats it as. As Ricci noted, the number one reason something falls is that it just rose 20% to 30% in a straight line, not a change in the geopolitics. Crude is still closer to the top end of its risk range than the low end, and prediction markets put the odds of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal by year-end at roughly 18%. RPK added two points: 1. The futures market is disconnected from the physical, where Brent priced across Dubai and Shanghai sits around $120 to $125 a barrel, a gap that closes when the contracts roll at month-end. 2. The disruption has spread well beyond the Strait. The East-West pipeline is running at half capacity at best for months, Red Sea traffic runs through Houthi-controlled waters, and moving barrels on small boats shepherded by US destroyers carries at least $20 a barrel in incremental cost. "I'll take the under on the 20% chance of it being normalized by the end of the year." That leaves the question of what normal even means now, and how far off it still is. Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily market analysis from Hedgeye: