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Binance Research
@BinanceResearch
Providing institutional-grade analysis, in-depth insights, and unbiased information to all participants in the digital asset industry.
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Time to explore August's market insights! Discover key insights on: 🔸 Rise of TradFi-Perps 🔸 bStocks Captured 1/4 of Tokenization Stock Market 🔸 Retail-Accessible Arbitrage 🔸 Equity Fund Flow Recap ...and more. Read here ⬇️
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AMD and SpaceX both reported Q2 after yesterday's close. Nasdaq doesn't reopen for another 17 hours. On Binance, the verdict was in within minutes. 🔸 AMDUSDT ~US$525 → ~US$475. Beat on revenue, EPS and guidance. Missed on gross margin, 54% vs 56%. 🔸 SPCXUSDT ~US$126 → ~US$115. Revenue +92% YoY. Capex US$18.4B, over 6x a year ago. AI's seller and AI's buyer, marked down on the same question. Price discovery no longer waits for the bell.
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Half-Year 2026: On-Chain Markets A full breakdown of H1's on-chain contraction, DeFi liquidity retreating, and the tokenized RWA and prediction market growth heading into H2. Read the full report 👇
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bStocks just crossed US$500M in AUM! A few more signals worth paying attention to: 🔸 85% of tokenized equity DEX volume 🔸 27% of tokenized equity market cap 🔸 92% of Monday's gap priced over the weekend Dive into the full research 🔽
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30% of Gen Z began investing during early adulthood. Gen Z is also the largest user cohort trading Direct Stocks, bStocks, and TradFi-Perps on Binance, contributing an aggregate US$80B in trading volume across these products. Learn more 🔽
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Crypto and traditional finance are converging — but most platforms still operate in silos. One exchange has built a different model: leading across every asset class, not just participating. A data-driven look at what multi-asset scale actually looks like. 🧵👇
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The closing bell isn't the end of trading activity. The data points to a shift toward a more accessible, 24/7 market. Here's what we're seeing: 🔸 44% of volume prints after hours 🔸 Flips underlying stock volume near 5x 🔸 Weekend prices call 87% of Monday's open 🔸 95% directional accuracy Read More 👇
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The tokenized market just crossed US$10B. About a year ago it was under US$1B. 🔸 80% of tokenized stock traded on Binance are from emerging market users 🔸 93% of trades are fractional 🔸 Median trade size: US$18.81 The stock market is being rebuilt from scratch. Read more ⬇️
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On-chain leverage ratio climbed to ~38%, matching 2021 levels, driven largely by TVL compression rather than renewed borrowing demand. April's DeFi exploits triggered ~US$13B in TVL outflows. Despite the broader market pullback, meaningful deleveraging has yet to materialize.
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BTC derivative leverage ratio sits at ~5%, above its 5-year avg of ~3.5%, even as BTC fell from ~US$126K to ~US$64K. Derivatives positioning hasn't contracted with spot prices. When it doesn't, volatility tends to get amplified on the way down.
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SPCX weekend trading volume reaches 74% of weekday levels, remaining robust even when traditional markets are closed. Notably, 17.2% of users trade with less than $100, with a minimum participation threshold of around $10 — clear evidence that mainstream retail users are actively participating during off-hours rather than institutions. These metrics highlight how Pre-IPO Perps give ordinary users on-chain access to primary market opportunities previously gated by traditional infrastructure.
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The largest IPO in history prices this week. Most of the world can't participate. Primary markets were built for institutions. Retail enters after the premium is already gone. On-chain pre-IPO infrastructure exists to close this gap. Find out more ⬇️
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The largest IPO in history prices this week. Most of the world can't participate. Primary markets were built for institutions. Retail enters after the premium is already gone. On-chain pre-IPO infrastructure exists to close this gap. Find out more ⬇️
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US-led selling pressure has dominated BTC since late May, with US selling pressure hitting -76.6% in May W4, the weakest reading YTD. Asia and the EU stayed balanced throughout. Key drivers from industry: 🟠 Worst monthly ETF outflows YTD — 4 consecutive weeks, US$2.4B left in May 🟠 Strategy first BTC sale since 2022 — while sitting on ~US$11B unrealized losses across 843K BTC The move is being amplified by a tougher macro backdrop: 🔴 Inflation accelerating — May CPI hit 4.2%, up from 3.8% 🔴 Payrolls still hot — 172K vs 80K expected 🔴 Full hawkish reversal — 4 cuts priced at start of 2026 → ~2 hikes by early 2027 🔴 Capital rotating out — AI equities correcting, SpaceX IPO competing for flows With ETF outflows, hawkish repricing, and Strategy's sale now priced in, the focus shifts to when demand returns and what crypto-native or policy catalysts could drive it.
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World Cup season is pulling prediction markets to another ATH. US$31.2B in May notional volume, up ~15% from ~US$27B in January. What began the year as a competitive field has consolidated into a two-platform market: 🔸Kalshi: $18B (58%) 🔸Polymarket: $8.8B (28%) 🔸Others: ~14% The growth is also broadening beyond event speculation. Industry-wide open interest hit $1.3B, and Polymarket created 520K new markets in May alone, up 50x YoY across stocks, commodities, sports, and AI. Both regulation and distribution remain key growth vectors.
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1/5 Why is crypto weak lately? The answer may not lie in crypto itself — but in equities. CBOE Dispersion Index hit 42 — 3rd highest ever. It means extreme capital concentration within the S&P 500. When a few hot themes absorb all the flows, BTC gets sidelined. 🧵👇
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Charting the Week 📊 Four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening and sell pressure is exhausted. 🧵
Crypto is not a safe haven for illicit finance. 📊 ~11% of illicit crypto volume was seized in 2025 – 55x the recovery rate for fiat. That figure comes from publicly reported actions by Tether, Interpol, the T3 Financial Crime Unit, and others — not a single agency estimate. 📌 For context: The UNODC estimates less than 1% of illicit fiat flows are seized globally each year. Even stripping out the Prince Group case alone (~US$15B in BTC), the remaining 2025 crypto seizures still run at roughly 10x that fiat baseline. 🔍 SlowMist and PeckShield tracked 8.3%–13.2% of stolen funds recovered or frozen in 2025 — reflecting fast incident response and tight coordination between exchanges, issuers, and law enforcement. The bottom line: Crypto crime isn't solved. But the idea that crypto is uniquely hospitable to illicit activity is increasingly a myth. Blockchain is transparent by design. Regulators and investigators are finally using that to full effect.
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Tokenized RWA growth is accelerating. Distributed value now sits at US$31.4B, with two-thirds added in the past year alone. Yet penetration remains just ~0.01% of the core addressable market. Even sub-1% by 2030 implies a trillion-dollar market ➡️
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1/ 🧵 Crypto already has 700M+ users globally. Over the past few years every catalyst — ETF approvals, institutional entry, stablecoin legislation — has driven growth. But the slope hasn't changed. Our research points to two reasons: user demand and awareness on one side, and crypto's product architecture on the other. By 2030, this number could be 3B. 👇
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