Binance Research
@BinanceResearch
Providing institutional-grade analysis, in-depth insights, and unbiased information to all participants in the digital asset industry.
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Management uncertainty at $Nvidia emerged over the weekend. With US stocks closed, stock perps provided early price discovery — Binance NVDAUSDT printed a −4.2% low vs the last US close ahead of the US reopen.
Over the past 24h, @Binance ranked #1# in NVIDIA perpetual volume (US$360.35M, 44% of the top 8) and #1# in open interest (US$90.57M, 30.1% of the top 8).
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Sticky inflation is masking softer demand.
September real spending stalled, durable-goods volumes fell 0.8%, and real disposable income dropped 0.3%.
Absent another oil shock, this strengthens the case for an early-2027 inflation peak and spring relief.
#PCE# #Inflation# #Bitcoin#
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Bloomberg says Marvell is close to buying Lumentum.
Usual takeover math: the buyer $MRVL drops because it's the one paying the premium, and the target jumps because it's the one getting paid.
$LITE perp was up 14% within an hour of the 5pm ET headline, then gave most of it back overnight. Nobody's pricing the deal as done yet.
#Marvell# #Lumentum# #MRVL# #LITE# #AI#
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Marvell is in advanced talks to buy data center optics maker Lumentum, according to sources, a potential megadeal amid the race to scale up in the artificial intelligence sector
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$MSFT and $GOOGL both reported after the close. One up, one down hard.
Both are spending heavily on AI.
Difference is free cash flow: Microsoft still has some left, Alphabet has been negative two quarters in a row.
#AI# #Earnings# #MSFT# #GOOGL#
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Dec still looks like one hike.
What’s softer is everything after that — markets just took about half a hike out of 2027.
#FOMC# #Fed# #Rates# #Macro# #Markets#
#NeoCloud# companies are carrying a timing problem on their balance sheets.
GPUs bought at peak prices are depreciated over 5–6 years. Nvidia now ships a new generation roughly every year, so last year's flagship can be mid-tier long before it's off the books.
For $CRWV and $NBIS , infrastructure already makes up nearly 60% of operating costs.
The winners won't be whoever bought the most GPUs. They'll be whoever earned back the cost before the next generation landed.
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History says #FOMC# days move $BTC.
12h after a decision, the median move has been ~2.5x a normal day.
Options are pricing tonight about like any other day, and next week a touch higher.
Data from Binance Spot and Binance Options 👇
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@AnthropicAI IPO filing puts pre-IPO perpetuals in focus.
Among the major venues, Binance accounts for 47.6% of open interest and 31.0% of cumulative volume since June 2.
USD/BRL surged as markets repriced Brazil’s macro risk, with the FX rate reaching its highest since December 2025.
@Binance’s 24/7 USD/BRL perpetual closed at 5.380 on Oct 26, with trading volume reaching 114× its prior 34-day median.
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Binance’s @AnthropicAI pre-IPO futures signal a more bullish valuation. 👀
ANTHROPICUSDT traded at 1,880 USDT on Oct 27, implying ~$1.88T using Binance’s 1B-share reference, vs.
Anthropic just filed for a Nasdaq IPO. FT-reported expectations of $1.5T–$1.75T.
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Investors are getting nervous about AI companies' debt.
🔸 Cost of hedging AI hit a record high
🔸 Investors now pay for marginal returns on AI expenses
🔸 Pokémon cards are up 60% in 2026, beating $SPY and $BTC
Read the full Weekly Macro👇
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Nasdaq carries an unusually high volatility premium vs the S&P 500.
After the Fed and tech earnings, smaller-than-priced swings, resilient stocks and a narrowing premium could signal easing risk concerns.
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Volume is one measure of adoption, breadth is another.
BNB Chain stablecoin holder addresses doubled YoY to 89.6M in Sep 2026, with about US$4.3T settled since Sep 2025.
It led all chains in new addresses in Q1 to Q3 2026, and ranks second in total, 0.2M behind TRON.
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RESEARCH: Stablecoins settled roughly $35T onchain in 2025, more than @Visa and @Mastercard combined.
Only about $390B of it was a real payment.
A new CoinDesk Research report maps where the value actually went, and why @crediblefin is building for the gap in between.
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The key paradox is that these six neocloud companies generate gross margins of 40–77%, yet ROA and ROIC remain at or below zero.
The challenge is the cost of capital-intensive infrastructure, GPU depreciation and interest expenses on debt-funded expansion, can absorb much of the gross profit before it translates into positive returns.
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'Not all neoclouds are created equal': Goldman Sachs says buy the dip on CoreWeave after sell-off last week
What do people ask Binance AI?
We classified prompts into 10 intent categories:
🤖 ~55% build & run automated strategies
📊 ~34% market data & research
🎯 Only ~11% are “give me a trade”
Plus, daily MCP calls topped 1M in mid-Oct, ~8.8x a month earlier.
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binancecoin:native ’s 37th quarterly burn removed ~1.65M BNB (~$1.2B), its third-largest by USD value.
Floating supply is now 131.5M, down a third from 200M in 2017 and 68.5% of the way to the 100M target. Since 2017, ETH, ADA, TRX and XRP supply rose 21% to 64%, with SOL up 129% since 2021.
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The 37th quarterly $BNB token burn has been completed directly on BNB Smart Chain (BSC).
~1.64M $BNB has been burned, worth approximately $1.197B USD 🔥
View the details of the burn below 👇
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bStocks hit US$1B AUM in just 125 days. What’s behind this growth?
🔶 Net inflows made up about two-thirds of AUM growth
🔶 46% of users are Gen Z
🔶 ~70% of trading volume comes from emerging markets
Read more ⬇️
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$BTC tops @JPMorganAM 's long-term return forecasts at 10% a year, ahead of US stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
A modest call for an asset that compounded at ~63% a year over the past decade and ~42% over the past three. JPM is taking the conservative route.
Even so, JPM's 55% vol assumption implies a Sharpe of ~0.32, matching US large caps. And realized vol has already fallen from ~74% (10Y) to ~50% (3Y). At 42% vol and a 13% CAGR, the Sharpe rises to ~0.45.
Bitcoin isn't just a high-return asset anymore. It's becoming a better risk-adjusted one.
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🔥 BIG: JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.
Its base case projects a 10% annualized return for bitcoin:native over the next decade, the highest of any asset in its comparison.
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Spot ETF in 2024. IBIT options that November. Now a buffer ETF filing.
Buffer ETFs hold US$100B+, mostly in stocks. That’s more than IBIT, the biggest Bitcoin ETF, at about US$65B. Lots of cautious money on the sidelines, and Wall Street’s big name is building the on-ramp.
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BREAKING🚨 @BlackRock just filed for another Bitcoin ETF. This one will be a "buffer" Bitcoin ETF which will means it will offer downside protection but investors will give up some upside to get that protection. Ticker will be $PBIT.
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Inflation is energy-led: CPI may peak near 3.9% in October, then ease to 2.6% by March.
🔸 AI demand and AI credit cooled in the same week
🔸 Dip-buying on Binance hit a record US$426M
Read full Binance Weekly Commentary ⬇️
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