It's Monday. Time to be honest. How's your portfolio actually doing this week? 📈 Up — I am the market 📉 Down — but I'm "long term" ➡️ Flat — stablecoins saved me again 🤷 I stopped looking Reply with your mood. No judgment here

McCullough: One Currency Signal Is Driving Everything 🔊 Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough opened Monday's edition of The Macro Show with the one signal he weights above all others. "If you locked me in a dark room without any live quotes, but I could only have one, what would I take? I would take what is the dollar doing." The dollar is now bullish trade and trend, up 0.6% over the past month and up a lot last week, most of it against the yen. A firmer dollar is net negative on the margin for gold, emerging markets, and bonds. The two-year yield tells the same story from the other side. "We're at cycle highs for two-year yields because cumulative inflation is at cycle highs." The curve keeps flattening, the short end stays well bid, and the book stays long treasuries and utilities. Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else:

Aerodynamic. Ergonomic. Delicious. Pick up Guile's Flat Top exclusively in AMC Theatres beginning 10/15. Tickets go on sale for STREET FIGHTER Monday 9/21 - set your ticketing reminders on our site or app and get notified!

post WARSHmaxxing - what is going on? markets seem to be pricing the consequence of the hike... - rate hike "winners" getting smoked - big banks and regionals smoked - homebuilders & industrials hit hard - AI did get crushed Monday ... more defensive today immediate reaction move is about the shape AND growth path... the front end rose with the hike while the long end rallied, so the curve flattened and margins compress. a hike into slowing growth means loan demand and credit go the wrong way. Regionals lagging big banks (funding costs, commercial real estate) is the classic hard landing tell (which the MACRO PULSE is confirming)

Premarket movers Mag 7 names are all lower (Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.3%, Meta -1%, Microsoft -1.1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Tesla -1.2%) Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the biotech company to overweight, optimistic about the prospects for deramiocel, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy Charter Communications (CHTR) inches 1% lower after the cable operator said CFO Jessica Fischer will step down in mid October to relocate for another professional opportunity. Duolingo (DUOL) is up 6% after Evercore ISI upgraded the language-learning software company to outperform, noting investor opportunity following severe weakness in the stock, which is down more than 70% off a peak hit in mid-2025. Fervo Energy (FRVO) jumps 13% on a Wall Street Journal report that the geothermal company has signed a deal to sell power to Alphabet’s Google. GoPro (GPRO) soars 76%, with the stock set to extend gains after rallying more than 46% Monday. Kroger (KR) slips 1% after Citi analyst Paul Lejuez cut his price target on the grocer to a Street-low $57 from $61, and adds a downside 30-day catalyst watch on the stock ahead of Kroger’s Sept. 11 earnings report. Medtronic (MDT) gains 4% after the medical device maker boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year. Micron Technology (MU) dips about 2% after the Taipei-based Liberty Times reported that Micron will deliver its highest incentive pay plan to its Taiwan-based employees in response to a potential strike by its labor union. NIO ADRs (NIO) slip 1% after the carmaker reported vehicle deliveries for August that were largely flat from the previous month. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rises 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the exchange to overweight on growth from prediction markets.

ZEROBASE WEEKLY 8.24-8.30 ZBT traded in a relatively tight $0.075–$0.082 band through most of the week before a late bounce toward $0.083–$0.086 on August 30. Crypto market capitalization held in a $2.62T–$2.78T range after the prior week’s sharp expansion, settling near $2.63T–$2.70T by the weekend. The week was a classic digest-and-test sequence: residual bid from the prior 22% Bitcoin surge, a probe of resistance above $81,000, then a hawkish-policy fade. Bitcoin opened the week near $77,700 on August 24, advanced through $80,000, and printed a three-month high around $81,300–$81,455 on August 25–28 before reversing. The Friday close near $77,840 reflected a roughly 3% session drop after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. By Sunday, Bitcoin had recovered into the $78,200–$78,800 zone, leaving the week modestly higher from Monday’s open but well off the highs. Ethereum moved in parallel, starting near $2,460, tagging the mid-$2,500s, sliding toward $2,420–$2,440 on August 28, and finishing near $2,450–$2,480. Derivatives confirmed the late-week de-risking. Friday saw about $488 million in liquidations, overwhelmingly longs, across nearly 98,000 traders. Open interest stayed elevated after the prior week’s short-squeeze, while funding on major pairs flipped from constructive to more cautious as hike odds repriced. Macro and geopolitics dominated the tape. The Jackson Hole symposium (August 27–29) was the focal point. Warsh, in his first keynote as Fed chair, called the 2% inflation target a “firm, fixed” objective, said forward guidance had “overstayed its welcome,” and warned that policymakers “have work to do” if underlying inflation does not move to target “clearly and at sufficient speed.” July PCE remained sticky at 3.7% year-over-year (core 3.3%). CME-implied odds of a September rate hike jumped from about 35% to around 57%. Two-year yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets faded into the Friday close. Other data mixed the picture: initial jobless claims fell to 203,000, supporting labor resilience, while July new-home sales dropped 10.5% under high borrowing costs. Trade friction intensified after the U.S. moved toward 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods following collapsed talks. Washington also widened Iran-related sanctions; oil still posted its first weekly decline in three weeks, with WTI near $83.40 and Brent near $89.30 as Hormuz-related risk was reassessed. Gold firmed toward $4,500. U.S. equities finished the week modestly higher despite Friday’s pullback. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,711.76 (−0.25%), the Dow near 53,560 (essentially flat on the day), and the Nasdaq weaker. Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter print was the offset: revenue of $96.2 billion, data-center revenue of $89 billion, and guidance that produced an 8.7% single-session jump and a roughly $442 billion one-day rise in market value—one of the largest on record. That AI bid kept Communication Services and Tech among the week’s better sectors even as rate-sensitive names and the Russell 2000 lagged. Institutional flows remained the structural support, then cracked at the margin. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $337.6 million on August 24, $314.4 million on the 25th, $232.1 million on the 26th and $242.2 million on the 27th, before a $201.8 million outflow on August 28 ended a nine-session, roughly $3 billion inflow streak. The August 24–28 trading week still netted about $924.5 million. ARK 21Shares led Friday redemptions (−$114.9 million), followed by Bitwise and a modest IBIT outflow. Ethereum ETFs did not follow: they added about $102 million on August 28 and extended a 10-day inflow run. Solana and XRP products also stayed in positive flow on the reversal day. Crypto Fear & Greed spent the week in greed rather than the fear readings of mid-August, oscillating roughly in the mid-60s to high-70s and ending near 69–76. On-chain data continued to show a holder split. Wallets with 100+ BTC added more than 39,000 BTC over the recent week, extending a 60-day accumulation of about 43,000 BTC (larger cohorts above 10,000 BTC added even more over that window). Retail-sized wallets (0.1–1 BTC) remained in distribution, with accumulation-trend scores near −0.98. Exchange flows flipped positive on the Friday dump (net coins onto venues) and quieter thereafter. A large share of supply remains dormant; long-term holder behavior stayed more constructive than the short-term cohort that sold into strength. In summary, August 24–30 was a consolidation week after Bitcoin’s strongest weekly dollar advance in years. Spot prices tested $81,000, ETF demand stayed heavy until Friday, and whales absorbed retail supply. The Warsh speech reintroduced rate-hike risk, ended the BTC ETF streak, and forced long liquidations—without breaking the higher range established the week before. Sticky 3.7% PCE, U.S.–Canada tariff escalation, and residual Middle East energy risk keep the macro overlay two-sided.

$SKHY closed down 3.89% in Seoul on Friday. Its Nasdaq ADS, $SKHY, is up 1.67% as I write, on the same calendar day. Same company, 5.6 percentage points apart, and neither tape is wrong. What Seoul was pricing: KOSPI down 1.8% to 6,909.91, under 7,000 for the first time in three sessions. Samsung Electronics 005930 KS down 4.09%, SK Hynix 000660 KS down 3.89%, SK Square 402340 KS down 5.20%. The Korean press put the blame on the overnight Wall Street session, on Brent at $107.95, and on a US ten-year approaching 4.97% while the Middle East conflict dragged on. Then about twelve hours passed. US August CPI came in on consensus, 3.4% headline unchanged and core down to 2.4%. Crude gave back 2.8%, with Brent at $104.57 as I write. The ten-year sits at 4.95%, roughly flat on the day. Seoul closed before any of that existed. It priced the fear version of Friday. New York got to price the resolution version of the same Friday, and the two versions are 5.6 points apart on one company. This is not an arbitrage. The time difference is structural, the ADS only listed on Nasdaq in July, and it trades nothing like the depth of the Seoul line. But it is the cost of information arrival, and it is unusually legible today because we can see both quotes on the same date. The rest of the New York session ranks cleanly in one direction. Semiconductors $SMH +2.10%, technology $XLK +1.58%, industrials $XLI +1.23%, Nasdaq 100 +1.14%, S&P 500 +1.05%, small caps +0.62%, software $IGV +0.31%, cybersecurity $CIBR +0.02%. Hardware that ships this quarter at the top, cash flows that arrive later at the bottom. The curve says the same thing from the other end. $SHY down 0.08% at the front, $IEF down 0.04% in the belly, $TLT up 0.27% at the long end. Short end sold, long end bid. That is the shape of a market pricing a hike, and futures have the 16 September move at about 71%, up from 61% before Thursday's producer prices. Which makes Friday two different trades stacked on one date. Asia traded the macro at its worst reading of the week. America traded it after the print that settled it, and after crude broke. And in memory specifically, the split inside New York is its own story: $SIMO +9.42% and $SNDK down 3.16% on the same afternoon, controller silicon and the flash itself moving opposite ways. What would change my read: Monday in Seoul. If Korean memory gaps up to catch what New York did on Friday, this was purely the clock. If it keeps falling, then the Korean tape was pricing something New York is not, and the candidates there are the won, domestic policy, or a view on memory pricing that the US names do not share yet. One session is one session, and I would not build a position on a single day's dislocation.