It's Monday. Time to be honest. How's your portfolio actually doing this week? 📈 Up — I am the market 📉 Down — but I'm "long term" ➡️ Flat — stablecoins saved me again 🤷 I stopped looking Reply with your mood. No judgment here

$SPX What Monday may look like? First trading day of November since 2012: 2012: +1.09% 2013: +0.29% 2014: -0.01% 2015: +1.19% 2016: -0.68% 2017: +0.16% 2018: +1.06% 2019: +0.97% 2020: +1.23% 2021: +0.18% 2022: -0.41% 2023: +1.05% 2024: +0.41% 2025: +0.17% 2026: ???? 11 Greens, 2 Reds, 1 Flat Average return = +.50%

McCullough: One Currency Signal Is Driving Everything 🔊 Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough opened Monday's edition of The Macro Show with the one signal he weights above all others. "If you locked me in a dark room without any live quotes, but I could only have one, what would I take? I would take what is the dollar doing." The dollar is now bullish trade and trend, up 0.6% over the past month and up a lot last week, most of it against the yen. A firmer dollar is net negative on the margin for gold, emerging markets, and bonds. The two-year yield tells the same story from the other side. "We're at cycle highs for two-year yields because cumulative inflation is at cycle highs." The curve keeps flattening, the short end stays well bid, and the book stays long treasuries and utilities. Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else:

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post WARSHmaxxing - what is going on? markets seem to be pricing the consequence of the hike... - rate hike "winners" getting smoked - big banks and regionals smoked - homebuilders & industrials hit hard - AI did get crushed Monday ... more defensive today immediate reaction move is about the shape AND growth path... the front end rose with the hike while the long end rallied, so the curve flattened and margins compress. a hike into slowing growth means loan demand and credit go the wrong way. Regionals lagging big banks (funding costs, commercial real estate) is the classic hard landing tell (which the MACRO PULSE is confirming)

Daily Brief, 21 Oct: I hope they didn't panic you out of your bags Join Rekt Mkts: A better start for both stocks and crypto...memory is bouncing hard in Korea, BTC and ETH are recovering, and ZEC is comfortably ahead of the majors. As expected, Black Monday transpired into absolutely nothing...and even worse for the bears...both equities and crypto have displayed incredible strength this morning that I think will make bearish chartoooors question their positions. MACRO The 10Y is around 5.12%, up just 0.2bps from yday's close. Tuesday brought a fall of roughly 1.9bps in the 10Y and 4.7bps in the 30Y, with the latter around 5.43% in that session. Some relief at the long end...I do wonder sometimes though are we yet to see the real impact of rates on . Gold futures are around $4,141, roughly flat. December WTI futures are around $99.19. Yday's oil reversal came alongside reports of possible US-Iran diplomatic progress, but those talks are still uncertain. September US housing starts also fell 5.2%, while pending home sales dropped 7.3%. That gives the bond rally a weaker-demand backdrop too...it isn't all about oil or the next inflation print. Today's US oil inventories are the next scheduled check on the energy side. EQUITIES S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher, with tech leading. SK Hynix finished up roughly 5.8% in Korea and Samsung 5.7%, a much stronger move than the modest bounce discussed on Monday. Micron and Sandisk still finished Tuesday's US session lower, but they are up pre mkt today and I would expect them to have a good day today (I am still cautious on these tickers though). Supermicro expects preliminary quarterly revenue of $18.5bn to $19.5bn against its previous $14.5bn to $15.5bn guidance. Its shares are up more than 10% in premarket following the update, with Dell and HPE also higher. These are preliminary numbers, but at least the market is getting a stronger sales estimate and buying the stock on it. That was missing when good chip numbers failed to stop last week's selling. It doesn't settle what memory suppliers can charge, or how customers finance the next round of investment. Server demand is encouraging for the wider AI trade, but it isn't a direct answer to the competition question in memory. If buying carries into the US memory names and survives the close, the rebound starts looking more convincing. Another round of selling into strength would be a pretty frustrating response to better company news and I still feel like that's what I would personally be doing if I still owned these names (which I don't). CRYPTO BTC is up roughly 2.1% over 24H, ETH 2.9%, SOL 2.5% and HYPE 3.7%. A better showing than Monday's fairly quiet start, with ETH and HYPE ahead of BTC. The recovery isn't confined to stocks, and the majors are participating rather than leaving all the action to a couple of smaller names - this feels like a delayed reaction to "the market not nuking and actually performing well" this week and maybe we just needed a couple of days of green confirmed closes for crypto to really get going. US spot BTC ETFs took in $23.2m yday. ETH funds lost $103.3m on Monday, 19 October; Tuesday's ETH total is still unconfirmed here. Better PA, but those flows don't yet give a convincing picture of buying across both assets. ZEC is up roughly 12.1% over 24H and VVV 5.2%, both comfortably ahead of BTC. Those were already part of the privacy and AI-related discussion in recent briefs, but the leadership has flipped from Monday, when VVV was making the stronger move. ZCAT is also up around 17.8%. I think we've seen a good few days of profit taking in these popular names with associated consolidation - hopefully we're through that now and it's still my pick for a cycle narrative. Good luck today.