There have been a few key changes in crypto market structure.
I've written about this topic before but I found myself carrying some stale epistemological baggage about how the market used to be versus what it is at the moment, so thought I'd share.
1. More coins than ever before and the barrier to creating new coins has never been lower.
2. More competition for the hot ball of money (AI, semis, tech, even commodities) and instruments like 0DTE options - all of which are very attractive to normies.
3. Change in participant type and sophistication - ETFs, more tradfi shops, suits etc.
4. Normie flows that used to concentrate around a few CEXes and a limited token set have been fragmented by the infinite listings and existence of the trenches.
There are fewer normie flows, they're spread too thin, and it's difficult to come back to the casino if you get dumped on for holding longer than 15 seconds.
The main attractor to crypto used to be outsized, long-lasting, and well-distributed trend and momentum effects that were easy to access because there weren't that many venues or coins.
That's basically up only/alt season i.e. multi-month periods that were responsible for a disproportionate amount of a crypto trader's lifetime P&L.
A rising tide lifting all boats is an overused but appropriate analogy - it didn't really matter what coins you bought.
If you got the broader market conditions right, you'd enjoy significant uplift and basically get bailed out even if you made bad picks.
In the current paradigm you can't afford to make bad picks.
To be precise: in previous cycles if you got the conditions right but the assets wrong, you'd still make money but underperform. In the current cycle (even from the most recent BTC run) if you got conditions right but the assets wrong, you got shafted.
So asset selection went from a nice-to-have enhancer to one of the main drivers of returns, even if BTC is going up.
That's a pretty significant departure from what we've dealt with in the past
This type of dispersion is a symptom of the market maturing.
I think that's a net good thing and is likely to incentivise more intelligent token design, less ghost chain VC slop etc.
But that's a forward-looking view, and at the moment we're trapped in this awkward transition phase where the old rules don't really apply but we haven't figured out a new framework yet e.g. top N coins by market cap are still mostly shit vs quality.
Maybe I'm wrong and everything changes and we go back to the market-wide altseason paradigm when conditions are right. This could all be cyclical, but I think that's less compelling than before given the dispersion we saw on the way up too vs just to the downside.
I think it's a good time (especially with other markets and asset classes going crazy) to revisit where crypto sits in the speculative stack and how to approach it as the market is changing.
Cheers.
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Fable 5.1 hasn’t even been out for 24 hours, and my whole feed is about two things: how good it is and how fast it burns tokens.
I’ve already hit the limits on my accounts. Some initial thoughts.
1/ 5.1 is the strongest first impression I’ve had from any Anthropic model.
It feels more deliberate than Fable 5, sometimes almost Opus-5-like. Still, I haven't gained Fable 5 like trust for some tasks.
2/ I get why people are annoyed by the limits. For what I’m doing, they’ve been manageable.
We built a new design system and asked 5.1 to migrate nearly 5,000 components. It has been running since last night, with Opus 5 as fallback. We hit limits faster than Fable 5 for sure.
3/ When the first prompt is clear and detailed, I usually don’t need a second one.
The logic has been excellent so far. I haven’t done enough UI work with it to judge that side yet.
4/ Fable Orchestrator +
@grok is a mad combination.
Fable sets the task and checks the result. Grok does the work. In my runs, the orchestrator kept pushing Grok past the first acceptable answer until the checks passed.
For the first time, I hit the limit on my Grok plan.
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For me, this puts Anthropic way ahead of OpenAI right now. At least until Astra arrives.
The one thing I still love about OpenAI is its multi-agent harness. I hope Astra can retain that.
I doubt Astra beats Fable 5.1 out of the gate, but you never know. If it does, OpenAI will have pulled off something huge.
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day 1 observations for grok 4.7
ignore the reports that say “it’s terrible” and the only thing they reference is a public benchmark. the same benchmarks told us opus 5 was better that fable - they are useless
also ignore the reports that compare models with 3d games - that’s not real work. it's made for attention on social media
i used grok 4.7 for a whole day as my firstmate, and it has been a really solid model with visible improvements over 4.5 (i'm ignoring 4.6 because 4.5 has been working better in my experience)
key differences with 4.7 -
1. it follows system prompt very, very closely
i noticed firstmate showing many new behaviors that i've never seen before, such as asking me to name specific red CI checks that i'm ok with bypassing, and refuse a simple "yolo" instruction
i traced it and it's indeed how i instructed it in firstmate's system prompt, but none of the other models followed it closely enough to make this behavior visible - grok 4.7 is the first to pick that up
there were a few other similar examples as well. so to me this is a clear behavioral difference
2. it's very "stable"
if you've used astra then you know what a "spiky" model is. it can have some genius moments but you occasionally also wonder "how could it be so dumb and doesn't get me". grok 4.7 is the opposite of that
throughout the whole day so far, i'll be honest i haven't get a "wow this is absolutely genius" moment yet, but grok 4.7 has been very steady with no big surprises. its behavior feels predictable, which does help it gain trust from me quickly
3. it's a conservative model
it doesn't like to take actions without asking, and would explicitly say so
this is a bit of a double edged sword, because it means i sometimes have to state the obvious "yes i do want that", but in hindsight a lot of those cases are indeed a bit ambiguous and i may not have preferred the model to just move forward without my confirmation
4. it's a bit slower and costs more than 4.5, visibly
turns are taking a bit longer and my quota is draining at a visibly faster pace. i haven't quantified exactly where this is coming from yet
so overall, i think it's showing some clearly different traits, and i mostly like the changes. i'm going to keep it as my primary firstmate and observe more
if you've been using it, what qualitative insights have you gathered from real usage so far?
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The gap between US earnings growth and the rest of the world has never been wider:
Earnings of US companies have grown nearly +1,300% since 1990.
By comparison, earnings of global companies excluding the US have risen +500% since 1990.
In other words, US earnings growth has been 2.6 times larger than the rest of the world.
This comes as global ex-US profit growth has remained roughly unchanged between 2008 and 2025.
The US economy is in a league of its own.
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Big tech has never been bigger.
The 2 largest S&P 500 companies, Nvidia, $NVDA, and Apple, $AAPL, now account for 15% of the index’s market cap, an all-time high.
This comes as $NVDA represents a record 8%, while $AAPL accounts for 7%.
By comparison, the combined weight of Exxon Mobil, $XOM, and Apple, $AAPL, peaked at ~8% in 2011.
During the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, Microsoft, $MSFT, and General Electric, $GE, topped at ~9% in 1999.
Before 2020, the 2 largest stocks never accounted for more than 10% of the index’s market cap.
The US equity market has never been this concentrated.
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This has never been more true than right now …
"A wise man's heart inclines him to the right, but a fool's heart to the left."
Ecclesiastes 10:2
There have already been 2 KOL farming incidents in the ARC ecosystem
First, the OTC bridge, where people bought USDC at 60x the real price, then started vamping over 300K USDC after it got shilled by vamp KOLs
Second, trading through some unclear bridge mechanism into a USD platform, handled by one person, while ARC USDC is not even officially live yet
What comes next??? It is obvious that the people promoting this are cancer across multiple chains, They come in, take profit in one day, then leave everyone else stuck there holding losses
Why not just build for the ecosystem instead, and start trading when ARC officially launches its bridge and mainnet announcement?
You are not going to find the next $CASHCAT like this, $CASHCAT started in a fair way, without forcing too much hype
Excessive FOMO is never healthy for a chain ecosystem
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Tomorrow at 2:01:
"Failing CHOKE ARTIST Kevin Warsh (such a loser!), must be on the DUMBOCRATS Payroll! Our economy has never been STRONGER and inflation is NEGATIVE 10% (so LOW!), the lowest it has been in years. If he doesn't know how to cut, I will put in a EMO CHICK Next!!! President DJT"
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