Note: At the time of writing, no threat has been identified or reported against U.S. bases and infrastructure in Jordan, and reports of sirens sounding should be taken as a potential test until reports/information dictates otherwise.

Note the divergence in the chart below between the models that include rates and the one that doesn’t. You can also clearly spot previous bubbles, including 1987, 2000, and 2021, when none of the P/E multiple at the time could be explained by these three variables. We are not there today, provided margins and credit spreads hold up (which they are). The point of the chart is to highlight how damaging rising rates can be if they are not offset by growing earnings.

Note: Jenner activates on BSC testnet tomorrow, Oct 28. If you operate a testnet node and haven’t upgraded, complete the upgrade before activation. Check your client’s release instructions for the exact activation time. Block builders and application teams should finish their compatibility checks, including Payment Lane accounting and affected Reth RPC overrides. Keep the Jenner upgrade guide handy for the preparation checklist and release-note links 👇

#Notebook# production outside China is estimated to fall from approximately 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026, potentially below 20% in 2027—higher costs could push brands to move some capacity back to #China# if tariff pressures don't intensify.💡More: 🔗

Notes from Managing Partner @ag_dwf's @TOKEN2049 keynote "The Power of Vision". Change is constant. Each year comes with unique challenges and factors - from politics, regulatory and technological shifts, the macro economy, and good/bad actors. There's a conflict between old and new: - New generation teams are lean and adapt quickly. They make bigger moves. - Older teams are bloated and struggle to keep up, trying to continue with old habits and safe moves. In established markets, for example the CEX landscape, it’s extremely difficult to compete. Teams that find ways to capture blue ocean markets are ones with large upside such as @tether for stablecoins in the early days, @HyperliquidX for perp DEXs. Areas of potential growth: - TradFi perps in the next 12-24 months - Payments - AI x Crypto The markets flows between quantity and quality, freedom and regulation. #DWFLabsxTOKEN2049#

Notes from today's $CIFR (Cipher Digital) fireside chat with CFO Greg Mumford at the KBW Virtual AI Summit. 1. The market is now focused on pricing the build not new lease signings. Mumford said Cipher is in the hardest stretch: leases signed, projects financed, construction underway, and no cash flow coming in yet. Investors used to ask when the next deal was coming. Now they ask whether the last one gets delivered on time. The stock shows it, down about 48% from its $30.14 52-week high to $15.51. 2. Financing got more expensive. The 10-year Treasury rose about 80 bps from the end of Q2 to the end of Q3. Data center debt spreads (the extra yield over Treasuries) widened by even more. His read is that bond buyers now charge for the construction risk between signing a lease and delivering the building. He expects the next deal to price higher. The existing bonds are holding near par (face value): Cipher Compute (Barber Lake, priced at 7.13%) trades about a point above par, and Black Pearl (6.13%) and Stingray (6.00%) trade about a point below. "The cost may change, but I don't think our access to capital is diminishing." 3. Higher costs get passed through the lease terms more than the rent. He was asked whether tenants will accept a higher yield on cost (annual rent divided by build cost). He said yes, then pointed to other levers: lighter SLA penalties for late phases, tenant termination rights that only apply after longer delays, and pre-agreed cost splits with tenants on some leases. My read is that rent alone can't fully adjust to the new rate environment, so Cipher is shifting risk to the tenant instead. That protects the downside. It does little for upside. 4. Power is the constraint and demand is not slowing. His evidence: standard terms have moved from 10-year modified gross leases (landlord covers some operating costs) to 20-year triple net leases (tenant pays taxes, insurance and maintenance). The tenant pool has also widened beyond AWS and Google to chip developers and other high-grade credits. Asked directly about the 2027 pipeline at Ulysses, Reveille and Odessa, he cited the quiet period and gave nothing site-specific. 5. Texas lease announcements could slip. Colchis has conditional approval for 1 GW of grid power in ERCOT's first large-load batch, called Batch Zero, with final approval expected after an audit in December. Separately, the TCEQ, the Texas environmental regulator, has paused data center permits until the audits are done. Mumford called this a timing problem, not a demand problem. Asked whether Texas leasing is on hold until after the midterms, he didn't rule it out. He said tenants may do diligence and reserve sites with options, and he couldn't say whether a Texas lease would be announced before or after the audit. He did say Cipher has some sites outside the audit process. 6. No capex per megawatt figure. He said tenant specs set the cost: how much redundancy, whether there are backup generators, evaporative versus liquid cooling. So there is no single number. KBW floated $11M per MW, and he neither confirmed nor rejected it. He only said the all-in budget includes land, permitting, soft costs, engineering, and a development fee paid to Cipher itself. Keep that in mind when comparing $/MW across peers, since companies don't all report it the same way.