Fable 5.1 Masked a green screen on multiple shots And it did it around 90% quality of a human! Instruct your Claude: 1. Prompt a flat, unobstructed green screen. 2. Get word timings for slide cues. 3. Detect green per frame (HSV threshold). 4. Restrict detection near previous quad. 5. Fit four-corner quad to blob. 6. Smooth quads over five frames. 7. Mask only green inside quad. 8. Never key green outside quad. 9. Foreground objects preserved by mask. 10. Cover-fit slide, crop evenly. 11. Perspective-warp slide into quad. 12. Hard-cut slides at cue timestamps. 13. Despill: clamp G to max(R,B). 14. No add-back, avoids magenta. 15. Green-hued pixels get full alpha. 16. Raise thresholds where hands cross. 17. Static shot: freeze reference quad. 18. Fast motion: unsmoothed per-frame fit. 19. Video slide: warp every frame. 20. Grade slide: darker, slight blur. 21. Re-render only changed clips. 22. Normalize clips before stitching. 23. Stitch with concat demuxer only. 24. Verify audio per segment. 25. Check frames with your eyes. If you still think AGI won't happen this year I invite you to think again After effects people Your days are numbered

🚨 Fantasy football injuries of note: Josh Jacobs - groin Jaylen Waddle - leg DeVonta Smith - hamstring Makai Lemon - hamstring Luther Burden III - leg Mike Evans - quad Zay Flowers - quad Josh Downs - groin

Nvidia got FAFOed multiple times with Rubin/Rubin Ultra design - They pushed for higher pin speed HBM4, but Micron's & Hynix's base die were subpar, so they had to change plans & face delays (lower pin speeds) - They pushed for a quad die Rubin Ultra design, yield and warpage issues forced them to switch to 2 die and 2+2 die MCM design - They pushed for 16 Hi HBM4E for Ultra, yield issues forced them to come back down to 12 Hi - They pushed for a dual profile 2.3kW/1.8kW Rubin, but indium-graphite TIM was unstable and now they are switching back to graphite TIM

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McCullough: The Yield Curve Is The Biggest Problem Since 2022 🔊 On Tuesday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO @KeithMcCullough explained why the falling yield curve is the biggest macro problem since 2022 and why it is a reason to stay away from the financials. "It is probably the biggest problem we've seen since the beginning of 2022," the year Hedgeye called the crash after 2021's Quad 2 top. The sequence is the same, first Quad 2, then Quad 4, and the curve is now diving toward 19 basis points. It draws attention only once it turns negative, and by then the damage is done. On the way there, while stocks push higher, almost no one flags it. "Do not buy the financials on that," McCullough says. Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else:

High quality call. The expert spent 31 years at $INTC, 24 of them inside the fabs, running 24/7 operations across lithography, dry etch and thin films metals as an area manager. He traces Intel's derailment to one call: for 10nm, Intel decided it did not need EUV, despite having been one of the largest investors in ASML to create the technology. The company committed to technical specifications that could not be delivered reliably without it, then tried to hit them with quad patterning. "Despite Intel being one of the biggest investors in ASML to create EUV technology a decade earlier, by the time that technology was ready, we said, 'Nah, we don't need it.' That was a watershed decision... Yields, costs, throughput, all of it suffered." The mechanism that turned a process error into a company-level failure is the IDM coupling. Intel products depend on Intel Foundry. When 10nm underdelivered, the product line had no competitive process to design onto, and the only remedy was outsourcing, which is why a meaningful share of Intel's chiplets are built at TSMC. Low internal volume then starved the fabs of the very thing they needed to recover. His framing of the node sequence is bracing: Intel 7, Intel 4, Intel 3 and 18A were a chain in which each node inherited the unresolved problems of the one before, and 18A arrived initially without yield or parametrics. He puts the effective slip on 18A at roughly two years. Process improvement is a data-limited exercise. TSMC runs full loading for Apple, AMD and NVIDIA, which generates enormous volumes of process data, which enables fast learning cycles, which sustains leadership, which attracts the volume. Intel is fabbing almost exclusively for Intel products, and Intel products have been weak for a decade. The data turns are not there. "They're basically only fabbing for Intel products, and Intel products have been struggling. The volume of data is just not there for Intel to innovate faster... I think sometimes the reason Intel hesitates, the reason they waffle a little bit on making claims is because of this, because they just can't get the data turns fast enough to know with confidence where they're at." He flags Foveros and wafer-level packaging as equally critical to 18A and increasingly the harder problem. Panther Lake does not ship without it, and a packaging failure destroys yield at a far higher cost per unit than a front-end failure, because you are scrapping fully processed die. Lip-Bu Tan's original position was that Intel would not commit to 14A without external customers putting skin in the game. The expert's point is that this position was internally incoherent with the stated commitment to remain an IDM. If Intel does not build 14A, Intel products cannot design competitive parts, so Intel products must be allowed to outsource wafers. Do that for a couple of years and the foundry loses its largest customer and is finished. He also thinks the original statement was a strategic error in communication terms, since no prospective customer is motivated by a vendor signaling it might stop investing. "Intel products cannot design competitive products if the foundry is stuck on an old node. If Lip-Bu stuck to that initial declaration, he is then required to allow Intel products to outsource their wafers. By default, over time, not very long either, within a couple of years, he puts his own foundry out of business, because his number one customer is Intel products." He knows that prospective customers have been running test chips, samples and data reviews with Intel Foundry for at least two years. The absence of commitment after that much engagement is itself the datapoint on process competitiveness. What could change it, in his view, is not purely technical. Two exogenous tailwinds are now in play. TSMC leading-edge capacity is on allocation, so second-source conversations are being driven partly by desperation rather than preference. And there is a political layer around domestic capacity that he assumes is present in the shadows of these decisions. He credits Lip-Bu Tan with identifying waste and making necessary decisions into a genuinely broken situation. His objection is to method rather than direction: capable long-tenured people pushed out because the incoming CEO did not know them, replaced by people brought in from adjacent industries. He also puts the start of the decline around 2012, well before Gelsinger, and characterizes Gelsinger's plan as broadly right but poorly executed and over-committed. Conclusion: Intel is obviously far behind TSMC when it comes to process know-how and yields, but has an opportunity in the coming years to pick up volumes as TSMC is at 100% utilization. Larger volumes should lead to better yields and increase the learning curve for Intel, but obviously, this remains a difficult story. TSMC is obviously far ahead and is building additional N3 and N2 capacity to address wafer supply shortages themselves. $INTC $TSM $ASML

Autopilot Update: I have reviewed the positions and there's nothing I feel like should be changed. We were well diversified enough that we handled recent drag with minimal downside, and are now positioned for what may be a decent leg up. Repricing is done from yesterday. The hike was priced in, not Warsh's tone or pressure, so that down and bounce repricing is c o m p l e t e. Oil price is falling. This means, despite the dot plot on the SEP, the next likely rate hike date (Dec) might lose traction if pass-through inflation dies out. Granted, we have yet to see much of the sustained oil prices it hit economic data in my opinion, but it would be lagging. So the market will be guessing. AI trades are running. Quad witching tomorrow. So: hopeful that this sustained period of stagnation and consolidation in prices is being broken out of, but we will have to see if it's a relief rally or a run with sustainable legs. Time will tell, as always. Adam

Following consultations with our allies and others, we support a short-term technical rollover of the UNSC resolution on Sudan’s arms embargo. This step creates additional space for diplomacy at a critical moment for the Sudanese people. As we have made clear, a long-term technical rollover of this mandate is not an option. We call on the UNSC to use this time to negotiate in good faith an expansion of the embargo that will address the current realities of the conflict. Any member considering opposing an arms embargo expansion risks abetting those who are destroying Sudan. Inaction means more suffering and death. That is unacceptable, and we refuse to rubber stamp another year of maintaining the status quo. Our priority remains achieving an immediate humanitarian truce, protecting civilians, and enabling the safe, rapid, and unhindered delivery of life-saving assistance. We remain committed to the Quad Roadmap, the Berlin Declaration, the Quintet political track, and to a genuine and inclusive Sudanese-Sudanese peace process that ends the conflict and leads to a credible transition to a civilian-led government reflecting the aspirations of the Sudanese people.

Laughably, stag hunts claim they chase deer for "research and observation", a loophole in the Hunting Act. Two hounds are allowed, so they also run relays of hounds in twos, backed by quad bikes, until the stag collapses and is shot. Defra must close every exemption, not one. Please use our handy tool to send a letter to Defra, telling the government not to allow a new loophole - drag hunting - to replace current loopholes. If you tried to send this letter before and it failed, please try again! All errors should be fixed. Via @ProtectTheWild_.