Zephyr
@zephyr_z9
AI & Chips | Not Investment Advice | DYOD
762 Following 168.8K Followers
Well, model layer revenue is growing at an extraordinary pace
So the chances are minimal
U can get around 300k Rubins in 1GW
So, for it to monetize at $50B/GW/yr, the hourly rental rate has to be around $19.4/hr, which is 5x-6x higher than GB300 LTAs
Jukan got unfairly attacked over this
Even though he is clearly saying that optics will outperform memory in the "short term"
This also happened in the February to March period of this year
Memory requires a sentiment change
Buyside expectations were too high
ASP increases were overestimated, and nobody expected that Hynix would sell HBM to Nvidia at a steep discount
Now, what can cause a change in sentiment and multiple expansion??
Higher than expected ASP hikes for Q3 2026(low chance as the consumer electronics players are resisting it) and durability of LTAs
Investors still believe that customers will break their LTAs just like previous cycles due to CAPEX spending going down/peaking soon
U may believe that this is false, but everyone isn't as AGI pilled as u, anon
The boomer fund managers certainly aren't
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Meta will be renting a lot of TPUs (rumors turned out to be tru)
Gavin: "SSI says that they are going to come out with their model in August"
BREAKING: SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LP HAS HIRED @jukan05 TO HANDLE RISK MANAGEMENT
As predicted, DUV mass production has started
Besi making bank in China
Likely supporting LogicFolding and other 3D IC initiatives
Wenfeng articulated the Nvidia bear case quite well in the leaked investor call
Looks like we may get an Intel-Hynix JV
Huawei will have control of around 260k WPM of 1z/1a DRAM capacity by the end of 2027 through JHICC and Swaysure
Korean brothers ready to go all in
@RYANHINGSHING @lithos_graphein @ShanghaoJin @orstep3oxj @xueyuanjoey 950 is a 400 mm2 die
33% smaller than 910B
Minimax's license is already non-commercial
They will open-source the weights
From Dylan Patel @ semianalysis "There are multiple Chinese model labs who are telling all the inference guys our next model is not going to be open source, we're going to license it to you. Open source is dying, quickly"
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Victory Giant's recent manufacturing hiccups have shaken up the supply pie, leading to a noticeable share gain for Taiwanese heavyweights Unimicron and Zhen Ding.
Meanwhile, due to the brutal upstream material crunch, Nanya Plastics has been pulled into the Switch Tray supply chain as a newly validated supplier to secure raw material availability.
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Skin in the game
A letter from our CEO today:
Markets will fluctuate, and external noise will come and go, but our direction remains unchanged.
Being at the forefront of this industry, we have a clear understanding of the pace of technological evolution and the long-term value we are building together.
Starting today, and until the day we reach AGI, I will no longer receive any compensation from the company.
Over the next four years, I will allocate shares equivalent to 4% of the company’s total equity from my personal holdings to reward team members who choose to build this journey with us for the long term and create value together. In addition, I will allocate 1% of my shares to establish a dedicated fund supporting the continued growth of open-source communities and the broader AI ecosystem.
I will devote all my time, energy, and resources to this mission.
This is my long-term commitment as a founder — to our company, our team, and the future we are building together.
We will keep going until we get there.
Intelligence with Everyone.
IO
CEO & Founder, MiniMax
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> Starting today, and until the day we reach AGI, I will no longer receive any compensation from the company.
MiniMax CEO decided to min himself to max the company…
I welcome the commitment
Quote from OpenAI on the livestream.
'Already, Sol has been transforming our research program. As one example, GPT-5.6-Sol autonomously post-trained GPT-5.6-Luna.'
Very impressive
