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The real cost to borrow money for 10 years is up more than 60% since the US-Iran war started. The 10-year real yield has jumped from 1.72% to 2.80%, its highest level since 2008. And this is important because the real yield shows the cost of borrowing after expected inflation is removed. The regular 10-year Treasury yield can rise simply because investors expect higher inflation. But real yields strip that out. So this shows that the actual cost of borrowing has become much more expensive.

How to understand 'real' yield trading - not just points farming Using @solsticefi eUSX on @ExponentFinance as an example Chapters 0:00 Intro 0:38 Brief on Farm (YT) and Income (PT) Positions 1:00 Understanding Implied APY 2:00 Implied APY Fluctuations 2:22 eUSX's Unique Case & Delta-Neutral Strategy 4:58 My Positioning on YT-eUSX 5:47 Closing Recap

🇺🇸Real Yield The US 10-year real yield is well above its 1.6% average since 1990. Rising earnings may keep stocks from falling, but higher real yields are limiting multiple expansion and leave valuations exposed if growth disappoints 👉 h/t @LanceRoberts

Below is a longer view of real yields vs real potential GDP growth and R-Star. For the ever-rising debt burden to remain sustainable, it’s essential that economic growth remains above the country’s funding rate. Based on the CBO’s real potential growth rate of 2.5% (and falling below 2% in the coming years), that is no longer the case. Hopefully, the CBO projections are too low given the AI boom that is currently underway. If not, we run the risk that the rising cost of capital will choke off the economy’s formidable growth. Note below that the last few times that the real yield spiked to or above the real potential growth rate were 2007, 2000, and 1994. Those were either rate shocks or growth shocks.