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Bull Theory
@BullTheoryio
News, Research, and all other Global market stuff simplified.
141 Following    251.3K Followers
BREAKING: US and China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods and set up a new channel for AI incidents, following Trump's meeting with Xi.
BREAKING: President Trump rejects Iran's proposed 7-day ceasefire that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
If you invested $10,000 in Hunter Biden's LAPTOP token 16 days ago, it would be worth $3 today.
🚨Oracle might be in big trouble. Its credit default swaps just hit a record high, and its 2056 bonds are now yielding over 8% for the first time. Oracle is one downgrade away from junk status. If that happens, $120 billion of its bonds get automatically pulled from investment-grade indexes. This comes right after Oracle's force majeure notice on its New Mexico data center, and while long-term US yields are hitting multi-decade highs. This isn't just an Oracle problem. Credit default swaps are rising across Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and SpaceX too. The market is starting to worry about how this entire AI buildout is being financed.
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BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's President Pezeshkian says Iran "no longer trusts" talks with US after repeated attacks and sanctions.
This is what a global bond market crisis looks like.
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BREAKING: OpenAI's AI agents reportedly went rogue and accessed multiple US government websites without the company realizing for months, per NYT. The agents reportedly used credentials found online to access Census Bureau data and also interacted with SEC and Commerce Department systems.
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump rejects Iran's ceasefire proposal and expects US strikes to resume after the midterms, per WSJ.
BREAKING: OpenAI says its own rogue AI agents leaked at least 53 ChatGPT user images online. That is the 15th incident since the agents hacked Hugging Face in July. OpenAI says the investigation could take months.
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BREAKING: The SEC just issued new guidance on crypto tokens, staking, and investment contracts. 1. Once a crypto network is functional, work to maintain, improve, or grow it no longer counts as "essential managerial efforts" under the Howey test. 2. Staking receipt tokens can be treated as digital commodities, not securities, depending on how they're structured. 3. A crypto asset itself can be a non-security, even if some transactions involving it are still investment contracts. 4. The SEC's framework now covers digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities. These FAQs reflect SEC staff views only and carry no legal force, unless the Commission itself adopts a formal rule later. Another major step toward clearer crypto rules in the U.S.
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🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: 1. Meeting with Xi was one of *Friendship, Strength, and Success" for both countries. 2. Will meet Xi again in China in November and at the G20 in Miami in December.
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BREAKING: WTI Oil is down nearly 3% in the last 30 minutes after Al Jazeera reported US-Iran talks have entered a "technical stage."
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How long can the US actually sustain this? Last time the 30-year yield was this high, back in 2004: • Debt: $7.35 trillion (61% of GDP) • Deficit: $412 billion (3.4% of GDP) Today: • Debt held by the public: 101% of GDP • Deficit: $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), more than 4x higher The US is now borrowing more, at a higher cost, with far less room to absorb it. And every 1% rise in yields adds over $300 billion a year in extra interest payments alone.
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🚨 There is no stopping US bond yields. The 30-year bond yield just hit a new 22-year high at 5.525% Yields are now moving like AI stocks, straight up, no matter what gets thrown at them.
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🚨 There is no stopping US bond yields. The 30-year bond yield just hit a new 22-year high at 5.525% Yields are now moving like AI stocks, straight up, no matter what gets thrown at them.
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 President Trump says he had a very productive meeting with President Xi on his three-day visit to the US on AI and other matters. The details will be reportedly disclosed on Monday.
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🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING IN THE STOCK MARKET. The S&P 500 is near all time highs, but beneath the surface, a completely different market is forming. Almost half of S&P 500 stocks now are moving differently from the overall market. Goldman says this kind of divergence looks very similar to the Tech Bubble. The biggest reason is market concentration. The 10 largest stocks now make up around 40% of the S&P 500, and many of them are riding the AI boom. Because these companies are so large, they can keep pushing the entire index higher even when a large part of the market is struggling. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is dealing with rising bond yields, $100+ oil, a stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs. These pressures are hitting companies that are more sensitive to rates, energy costs and the broader economy. So the S&P 500 being near record highs doesn't mean everything underneath is doing well. A small group of massive companies is making the overall market look much stronger than many stocks actually are.
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BREAKING: Tanker rates to ship oil from the Middle East to Asia are up 900% in just 7 months, hitting a record $1.2 million a day. Around 15% of the world's tanker fleet is now stuck waiting off Oman, and rising shipping costs are already forcing some Chinese refineries to cut production.
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🚨THIS IS INSANE Japan's 30-year bond yield just hit 4.223%, its highest level ever in history. Japan is now paying over 4% to borrow for 30 years - a historic reversal from decades of ultra low rates.
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BREAKING: Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Russia's Perm oil refinery, triggering a fire at one of the country's largest fuel plants. Perm produces around 5.3 million tonnes of diesel a year and is one of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries, which together account for roughly half of the country's diesel production. Last week, Ukraine's record drone attack damaged Moscow's largest oil refinery and forced it to halt crude processing. These strikes come just days after President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop targeting each other's energy infrastructure.
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BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran offers the US a new "7-day" plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations for a final deal, per FT.
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