50ptMAE
@50ptMAE
$ES merchant.
I post a weekly market outlook + actionable setups 👇
44 Following 1.6K Followers
There wont be another yen carry flash crash like Aug 2024 for a very long time. That was a one time var shock and ams are not gonna get burnt the same way twice. Just like another pandemic wont cause another crash in the market like Covid did in 2020
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Gap up loading now that tictocs 260k followers all short
Crude bagholders still dont get it. Its sad.
Crude bagholders out again tonight saying the market is rigged because its going down on no deal.
When CL gapped up 50% on the first day of the war it already priced in 99% of scenarios. The war is turning out very benign for energy supply which is why the smart money is dumping their CL at 90 before it goes back to 60.
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US momo went from up 69% YTD in June, to being red on the year in under a month. Let that sink in
If you still have faith in momo nows the time to buy
One of the AI winers crowned by the market - SPX ex AI. The end users who get to enjoy the technology having invested basically nothing into it. As token prices decline, these companies have regularly made new highs, in contrary to both the s&p and nasdaq.
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I think you can make money both long and short here.
But a sustainable breakout probably unlikely with positioning still rather full. Unless theres a real end to the Iran war, not just a truth social from Trump with no actual change from the Iranian side
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Besides samsung and hynix, small cap korean stocks hammered to the Oct 2022 lows. BoK just recently hiked near the top too just as the bubble popped. 5 years of gains gone in about a month 🤭
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So whats the over/under on korea having a 17% down day next week? These degens clearly havent learned a thing
Citadel and other sharks know exactly what the Leopold news would do for semis/momo. They made a couple B, and now they know theres a fuckton of retail and other players who bot back in on Wednesday and prob have their stops right below, or worse arent even using stops. What happens next?
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Trump admin likely realizes that this war cant be resolved with diplomacy, its past that point.
So the question becomes when do you escalate? Soooner is better than later if you want to get it done and let things (yields, oil) normalize before midterms
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Day 1 of the V rally going well!
Ppl are buying momo anchoring to old highs as reasomable price targets. The market has changed. You think the guys carried out on stretchers are going to be able to put up billions and buy the same shit again? People are afraid fearful and its rational to be that way. Some of these prices reached on the frothy ai names will
Likely never be touched again.
Look at the archegos event, those stocks by and large never recovered, ever.
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Dumped my korea last night for a nice profit.
As expected this shit puked again, too many bagholders and trapped supply to really sustainably
Leopold news today was green lifht to buy anything AI/momo/korea related.
The crowd in aggregate bot the dip in semis like never before this month. They are all in for a V to new highs..
If there was a way to leverage a private investment in Anthropic this guy would probably be living on the streets lol.
-67% in a year would be an absolute horrible performance.
-67% in a month… on the other hand… was his entire portfolio just OTM call options? If you ex-his anthropic investment it was more like -80% or -90% in a motnh on his actual public equities
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If leopold’s +80% return includes his anthropic private mark at 1tr valuation, he basically lost his entires years worth of gains.
Maybe he will rebound, but its clear his strategy is just giga max yolo long the highest beta AI trades. If you want to invest in his fund but dont have access just full port SMH calls and youre 99% of the way there
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We had a technical deleveraging event that has largely passed, but dont forget there were other things dragging down AI and tech. China is rapidly gaining on the US and some would argue they are outright winning the AI race. Most companies, for most tasks, dont need the frontier models and would prefer using a more cost efficient chinese one
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If leopold’s +80% return includes his anthropic private mark at 1tr valuation, he basically lost his entires years worth of gains.
Maybe he will rebound, but its clear his strategy is just giga max yolo long the highest beta AI trades. If you want to invest in his fund but dont have access just full port SMH calls and youre 99% of the way there
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Said another way, there are people to this day who own (baghold) gamestop holding out for 500 bucks again.
Ppl are buying momo anchoring to old highs as reasomable price targets. The market has changed. You think the guys carried out on stretchers are going to be able to put up billions and buy the same shit again? People are afraid fearful and its rational to be that way. Some of these prices reached on the frothy ai names will
Likely never be touched again.
Look at the archegos event, those stocks by and large never recovered, ever.
Show more
Ppl are buying momo anchoring to old highs as reasomable price targets. The market has changed. You think the guys carried out on stretchers are going to be able to put up billions and buy the same shit again? People are afraid fearful and its rational to be that way. Some of these prices reached on the frothy ai names will
Likely never be touched again.
Look at the archegos event, those stocks by and large never recovered, ever.
Show more
Looking at past momentum analogs.
In past analogs it took approx 3 months to get back to old highs
Looking at past momentum analogs.
In past analogs it took approx 3 months to get back to old highs
Leopold news today was green lifht to buy anything AI/momo/korea related.
