50ptMAE
@50ptMAE
$ES merchant.
I post a weekly market outlook + actionable setups 👇
55 Following 1.7K Followers
Bulls be like:
Nvda @ 220 - “long, its too cheap on a forward p/e basis”
Nvda @ 210 - “long, its too cheap on a forward p/e basis”
Nvda @ 200 - “long, its too cheap on a forward p/e basis”
Nvda @ 190- “long, its too cheap on a forward p/e basis”
Nvda @ 180- “long, its too cheap on a forward p/e basis”
Nvda @ 170 - “long, its too cheap on a forward p/e basis”
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Oh shit. It might be over for bond bears
Big banks reporting next week. Whats interesting is how hard these got sold into earnings.
WFC, BAC, GS (not listed by down -3%ytd) are all RED on the year, the others green but not by alot
Semis were the first to price peak AI capex
Banks just did it
Whos next?
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Imagine not being OW Mag 7 since the Summer
Its literally in the name, they are called magnificent for a reason, beacuse you make a lot of money being long them 😂
So OW Mag 7 both in MAGS and QQQ its not even funny.
Remember when the people who never looked at credit before in their lives kept crying about hyperscaler CDS?
SPX open: 7778
SPX close: 7765
Shorts wrecked: trump tweet
Longs wrecked: open ai rev article
Imagine sitting in the cuck chair during NY session while the move already happened in London
The fake breakout was actually chefs kiss
Sold all my calls this morn. 7850 breakout buyers getting bagged. Lets gooooo
Straight up 🤮🤮🤮 since every experienced trader realized the same thing I did
Its very unusual to see the SPX breakout, then immediately trade back under the breakout level to let everyone get on board
Dumped my ES longs yesterday at 7855. In my experience, when they give you a breakout backtest to buy so early, its a bull trap.
Should be noted when US first invaded Iran it was under the fake pretence of talks and while no threats were being made
*TRUMP SAYS US WILL NOT ATTACK IRAN BEFORE NOV. 3 MIDTERMS
Imagine sitting in the cuck chair during NY session while the move already happened in London
Its very unusual to see the SPX breakout, then immediately trade back under the breakout level to let everyone get on board
Real moves only happen overnight now 😂
As posted here, credit carries all the risk of the AI capex buildout with a CAPPED UPSIDE. So its natural and normal that is trading much weaker than equities. Its not some secret predictor of future equities price action. Its an asset class that has a poor risk/reward to express this mega theme (AI).
If AI transform businesses, and double profit margins you can see equity prices explode. If you bot the AI hyperscaler paper, you still only make 5.5% or whatever.
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If you think the AI trade sees imminet downside, ground zero will be credit. Credit has not followed equities to new highs, and it has the same if not more downside. AMZN with anoter 25bn raise this week. ORCL cds back at wides. NDX/SPX iv spread at multi year highs and it is prohibitively expensive to buy options rn on Qs, which has been just chopping since June. Also credit doesnt have the retail buy the dip flow that has been instrumental in the tech stocks rally.
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HYG has diverged from SPX since April, when SPX was 7000. Again, trading equities on what credit is doing, isnt some cheat code you unlocked. They trade different and diverge because they are -wait for it- different asset classes.
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Paramount/Oracle are trading wide because of idiosyncratic risk. The credit both ORCL and PSKY are essentially backed by the price of ORCL equity, which has been very volatile lately. Has nothing to do with broader macro.
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Alot of fear mongering on HY lately, its mostly accounts reposting what other people post without really understanding it.
HY spreads are now about 300. Record tights in the past decade were about 230. Credit spreads are still extremely tight and speak to how strong growth is and how easy it is to access capital.
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Alot of fear mongering on HY lately, its mostly accounts reposting what other people post without really understanding it.
HY spreads are now about 300. Record tights in the past decade were about 230. Credit spreads are still extremely tight and speak to how strong growth is and how easy it is to access capital.
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Gs prime has global L/S funds up 12.5% YTD.
Hedge funds broadly having a fantastic year and there will be a a year end chase to deploy their capital and maximize their incentives
Hedge fund net leverage among L/S funds is at Liberation days lows.
Read that again.
Yall remember what happened to the markets after Liberation day?
Thank god france is collapsing so i can BTFD 🙂
NVDA, despite closing at aths of 240/share, still trades at a bargain bin 17 fwd P/E
