50ptMAE
@50ptMAE
$ES merchant.
I post a weekly market outlook + actionable setups ๐
49 Following 1.6K Followers
The biggest lie they tell you in finance is that rising yields is bearish for stocks.
German 10y bund is at 3 yr highs, DAX is at ATH
JGB 10y is at 3 yr highs, Nikkei is at ATH
US tsy 10y is at 3 yr highs, SPX is at ATH
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Folks are completely wrong about whats pressuring long end yields.
The consensus is that its the deficit, and fed credibility.
Its almost all just market pricing in an elevated inflation regime, because all global yield charts look exactly the same.
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Looks like NVDA got the ORCL treatment.
When anthropic is throwing out 30tr, spcx with 28tr, the fy28 guide of +70% revs looks kinda light no? ๐
You dont know what you got till its gone ๐
Jay powell steered the global eocnomy through covid, crushed inflation after definitively, and overall guided to $spx to almost quadruple during his 8 year tenure. Literally anybody on planet earth would be a step down from him. Youll miss him when hes gone. So will the market.
#fomc#
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Warsh has been extremely inpressive. No matter what he says everything dumps. Not easy to do
Jackson hole tomorrow.
Historically the Fed has avoided any political interpretations by avoiding policy surprises leading into the midterms.
Nvdaโs latest fy28 rev projection puts 27/28 p/e in the low teens. Historically nvda has traded in the mid to high 30s. Every sucker yesterday selling the upside vol into earnings after it was down everytime for 2 years got bagged
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If you did your homework you wouldve known statistically the least likely time the market corrects is right after opex.
I did a backtest with claude (excl the covid crash, extreme outlier), and found that volatlity actually contracts post opex it does NOT expand contrary to what everyone says
Source: Claude (so maybe he made it up like he does alot of things)
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Is the -10% correction post August opex in the room with us right now?
After a bloody July that wiped out like 50 hedge funds, would a September ripper just be downright mean?
So lendale white getting stuffed at 4th and 2 cost pete caroll a national chanpionship and superbowlโฆ
Above 7650, there is no bear case. Its really that simple
The crowd was bearish on nvda because of CDS.
The market is pricing in two dramatically different probabilisitic distributions for equities vs credit. To trade indicies based on the direction credit spreads are travelling is overly simplistic.
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Imagine circling the 3rd friday of every month, and thinking youre the smartest guy in the room. What a joke lol
Every single furu on twitter says a correction begins post August VIXEX/OPEX. Guess what is guaranteed not to happen.
Yields typically fall after jackson hole. Not to mention bessent himself will be at the desk with his mouse hovering over the Mkt Buy 1000 lots /ZB on Friday
After a bloody July that wiped out like 50 hedge funds, would a September ripper just be downright mean?
What everyone on fintwit expects for the Fall/3Q.
10% correction, into 7000 spx and buy the dip for a 4q rally to 8000. Sound about right?
Druckenmiller would leave your grandmother to bleed out in a ditch if it meant he could improve his funds performance by 10bp. He didnt put out that 10 second AI slop article out in the WSJ to try and help you, dont be so naiveโฆ
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Sold the exact highs today and rebid the morning puke type of day ๐ด
Everuone turned bearish after yesterday ๐
What everyone on fintwit expects for the Fall/3Q.
10% correction, into 7000 spx and buy the dip for a 4q rally to 8000. Sound about right?
@TicTocTick Hiking becase of rising input costs in the ai supply chain, doubt it flows thru to their gross margin
