US companies are borrowing at a rapid pace in Europe: US corporates have raised €149 billion, or $173 billion, in European bonds so far in 2026, the 2nd-highest annual total on record. This is also double the full-year amount seen in 2022 and 2023. At this pace, US firms are set to borrow a record €225 billion, or $261 billion, this year. This comes as heavy AI-related borrowing from Big Tech has crowded the US Dollar bond market, leaving other issuers facing worse pricing and less room to raise debt domestically. Euro-denominated debt is also cheaper to service for high-grade borrowers than US Dollar debt, a key advantage for global companies earning revenue in Euros. US firms are increasingly looking abroad for financing as the US market can no longer easily absorb the debt wave.

The US Dollar is strengthening. The Dollar Index just hit an 8-week high of 100.892, up 2.30% in the last 13 days only. Markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of at least one more Fed rate hike this year. A rate hike raises the cost of borrowing, so people spend less and save more. That savings comes out of money that would otherwise go into stocks and other markets. So more savings means the dollar gets stronger, while liquidity moves out of the market and into bank deposits which is a negative signal for stocks.

BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says all Iranian airlines will be "shut down" around the world on September 23rd. Bessent says any airport or company that provides Iranian airlines with fuel, landing services, ticket sales, or other assistance will be "knocked out" of the US Dollar system.

The US dollar is approaching one of its most consequential technical tests in years. A break below this support could mark the beginning of a much broader decline. If I had to choose one market move that could define the next few years… this would be it.

THE US IS ONE STEP AWAY FROM SANCTIONING CHINESE BANKS OVER IRANIAN OIL China buys around 90% of Iran’s oil exports, mostly through smaller independent refineries. Its imports have fallen from 823,000 barrels per day in July to around 534,000 in August, but it has not stopped buying. Bessent warned that anyone doing business with Iran could be cut off from the US dollar system. But China says sanctions are not the way to resolve the issue and has vowed to protect its own interests. If China continues buying Iranian oil, the US could target major Chinese banks, turning sanctions on Iran into a direct clash with Beijing.