Fly to Australia 🇦🇺 To attend my brother convocation ❤️ 🙈 Showing off my new hair cut! 🙊 #justsushii# #asiangirls# #cosplay# #cosplayer# #cosplayers# #コスプレ# #sushiicosplayer# #inkol# #inkolmedia# #australiatrip# #melbourne#

Conviction in your investments is the MOST important factor if you're picking single stocks. Why? Downstream from conviction is the most important portfolio decision you'll make - concentration/diversification. In general, I think there's two important considerations here: 1. Higher concentration (less diversification) if you have a longer time horizon and you're genuinely patient. Be honest with yourself here. 2. Lower concentration (more diversification) if you pick companies at the beginning of the business/sector life cycle like AI, robotics, quantum and space type areas. With more mature companies and sectors, you get the benefit of having more history to base your investment decisions off of. These are boring companies in boring sectors with absolutely boring returns like McDonalds or Exxon Mobil. Meh. But with newer companies and industries like AI, basically all of the value in the business/sector is years away since so much can change so quickly. Things like a new memory technology, some weird data center laws, or even....frontier pacing. This is why with the AI trade, we often need a catalyst to re-rate a stock or entire theme/bottleneck. That could be things like an earnings release, new contract win, or a positive endorsement from a respected person in the industry like Jensen. Back in H1, any minor catalyst would lead to a re-rating of an entire sector. Photonics and memory are two of those sectors with a list of H1 catalysts that I can't be bothered to list here. However, I feel like many investors are currently struggling with conviction purely as a function of being too highly concentrated in the AI trade and not enough time/patience/grit to do proper DD. Of course, macro events and other factors do introduce some added uncertainty - so if you're constantly checking your portfolio, scared about the AI trade or pacing or even not enough time to keep up with developments - I'd probably suggest diversifying outwards a little bit into lower beta stocks. Survival is always the most important goal when picking individual stocks ✊

Conviction: Feeling of excitement you get from falling prices, so you can add more before moves higher Buy low, sell high Confusion: If you’re scared of dips this early in the bull, just not built for the full ride up Sell low, buy high

Conviction is not measured in months. It is tested across multi-year cycles. $NVDA: -66% in 2021–22, then about +407% over 3 years into 2026. $AMD: -65% in 2021–22, then about +447% over 3 years into 2026. $TSM: -56% in 2022, then about +409% over 3 years into 2026. $PLTR: -65% in 2022, then about +1,049% over 3 years into 2026. $HOOD: -90% from the 2021 high to the 2022 low, then about +1,600% off that low into 2026. Many missed the parabolic run by trading in and out. Many more failed to hold through volatility. And many more will never learn!

Conviction as strong as ever in $CRDO. The lower it goes the more I want to add to it. I don't mean that buying the dip in every company is a good way to make money. It is not. But Credo is quality and will outperform over time. Timeframe 2-5 years.

Conviction holds up under questions. The founders who stand out are calm, clear about what they're building, and focused on finding the best path there. @tbvxyz's @TobiasTBV and @Brent_Fulfer with Aptos Foundation's @aptAlix on evaluating founders.