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Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan says the Fed likely will need to raise rates by at least another 50 bps to ensure inflation doesn’t settle above the central bank’s 2% goal. Logan said those additional increases, together with September’s, would merely reverse the three cuts the Fed made last year. She said the Fed needs to set interest rates at a modestly restrictive level, a threshold that remains uncertain and could require even more increases. Logan drew a distinction on the run-up in bond yields. To the extent higher Treasury yields reflect expectations of a more aggressive Fed, those increases “don’t do our work for us,” she said. But if the increase in yields is driven by rising term premiums, or the extra compensation investors demand to hold longer-term debt, the moves “can slow the economy, reducing the need to tighten monetary policy.”

Dallas Fed respondents - uniform negativity: Tariffs and fuel prices are affecting incoming and outgoing products/costs. Customers have hit the limit on what they can pay. We are getting pushback and cancellations (Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing) Fuel costs (diesel, in particular) are adversely impacting our bottom line and that of our customers. We'd welcome a quicker resolution to the conflict with Iran as we believe that could potentially provide more favorable outcomes, improved margins and stability in interest rates. Insurance rates continue to increase in cost with a decrease in coverage. Overall, however, we continue to expand operations with an ever-increasing backlog that will provide a record year of revenue and net income for our enterprise in 2026 (Machinery manufacturing) We are now facing increased difficulty obtaining raw materials domestically. Items that were readily available now take long lead times or are not available in the same specifications we have historically purchased (Miscellaneous manufacturing) The price of diesel fuel is hurting our gross margin. We are unable to pass this through to our customers. We are bidding new jobs using $6.00 [per gallon] for diesel cost (Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing) Broadly speaking, very little to no manufacturing growth exists as pricing is being driven down by Asian and Chinese suppliers. AI and heavy transportation are growing. Other sectors are weak (Plastics and rubber products manufacturing) Our business has been able to maintain its volume, primarily because several competitors have experienced significant difficulties, including the largest producer in our industry announcing the closure of two plants, one of which is relatively close to us in Louisiana. Our primary concern going forward is the outcome of the U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations. There are significant flows of foreign aluminum into Mexico, including from countries with substantial non-market production and subsidization including Russia and China at prices far below U.S. prices. We are concerned that reduction in tariffs on Mexican aluminum products will give these non-market economies a significantly advantaged conduit into our domestic markets. Rules of Origin policies sound good in theory but experience shows that this relies on the honesty of those doing the reporting. PROSECs (Program for Sectoral Promotion) are also problematic in giving Mexican companies the ability to use these same foreign-supplied raw materials in downstream products. For U.S. aluminum producers, the issue isn't simply the tariff rate applied to Mexico. It is making sure that Mexico does not become a lower-tariff pathway for heavily subsidized aluminum produced in Russia, China or elsewhere in Asia to reach the U.S. market. (Primary metal manufacturing) Incoming orders have really slowed down, and now that we are finishing up on some large projects that have kept us very busy since mid-spring, things are slowing down. We have to believe it's due to the uncertainty around the chaos out of Washington, D.C. and lack of a clear path forward. Add to this the higher cost of living and rising fuel costs, especially for diesel that affects all modes of shipping, it seems to be a logical reason for slower levels of activity amongst our customers (Printing and related support activities) High interest and energy costs are a double hit. We can’t do any planning (Transportation equipment manufacturing)