Many people I talk to find it hard to understand how the same companies can both push the frontier of AI capabilities and believe AI is a massive danger for the world. How can you think this might kill everyone and also keep pushing the envelope? So I’ve tried to collect and summarize the main arguments for this apparent disconnect. Think of it as some sort of a guide to understanding the reasoning when Dario, Sam, or Elon say the danger is real. By the way, these people have been worried about AI for a loooong time, they were publicly discussing AI risks more than a decade ago. Sam in Feb 2015, writing on his blog that superhuman machine intelligence is "probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity." Elon at MIT in Oct 2014: "We are summoning the demon." Dario as first author of "Concrete Problems in AI Safety" in 2016. Okay so how do you go from saying something is extremely dangerous to being a front-runner in building the very dangerous thing? There are a few ways this can become rational. I'll take five of them, roughly in the order they developed. 1. We need to build it to learn how to make it safe The earliest argument can be summarized as: “You cannot study something [you’re worried about] if it doesn’t exist.” In 2015, AI barely worked. so people needed to make it work first to be able to even study some of the problems they anticipated. The updated version for today's capabilities is: “You cannot learn everything about airplane safety by studying paper airplanes.” You need a real aircraft to discover real failure modes and an increasingly complex one to learn about increasingly complex issues. Making AI more capable gives more chances to understand the issues and safety researchers something realistic to study But you could argue: if you're the one afraid of the explosion, why be the one gathering the dynamite? You could also just wait for other people to build it which leads to the question of who those other people will be -- which is the second line of argument: 2. Better us than them Knowing how to make something safer does very little good if nobody listens to you. So the idea becomes: let’s make sure responsible people build the AI that will be deployed and add safety inside. Basically, make sure the AI safety aware people will have the technical expertise, money, computing resources, and enough influence to make safety decisions stick. At a larger scale, and in a larger multipolar world, this brings the idea that a trusted country should lead rather than leave powerful AI in less responsible hands. This is where “we need to go faster than China” comes in, alongside broader defense and geopolitical concerns. These first arguments explain why someone worried about AI might still want to build it and stay ahead. But there are also arguments for why one might want to do it really fast. 3. Move earlier to avoid a bigger shock later This is probably the most counterintuitive argument: moving faster today can be seen as a way to give humanity more time later. There are two related ideas here. First, society needs time to learn how to handle powerful new tools. Introducing AI in manageable stages can be a way to let people discover problems, develop rules, and practice using AI responsibly. Releasing an advance earlier gives people more time to gain experience with smalle, burgeoning, capabilities before much more powerful and disruptive AIs arrives. Second, even if AI research slows down, computing power may keep improving. A breakthrough that happens later could therefore have much more hardware available to run on, potentially producing a larger, more sudden jump in capability and impact on society. That accumulated untapped potential is often called an “overhang.” The overall argument is that making and diffusing incremental progress as soon as possible might prevent a much more abrupt transition later. Obviously, it also means that we will reach increasingly powerful AI sooner, but the idea is to give more time to adapt and understand between the first useful systems and the really powerful ones. Note that generally this depends on this earlier progress keeping the transition gradual rather than simply bringing everything forward. ─── ❖ ─── For our two next arguments, we can take two roads depending on how difficult we think AI alignment will be, that is "How easy do you think it is to make AI reliably do what you want without it deciding to go hack Hugging Face along the way". Let’s take the first road: alignment turns out to be relatively tractable. Airplanes can fail, but careful engineering has made flying remarkably safe. Suppose we can do the same with AI. In that case: 4. Waiting has a huge human cost If AI can help discover treatments, improve education, or prevent cyberattacks, each week we delay it could bring preventable deaths and harm. From this perspective, waiting is a decision with human consequences too. In a world with huge issues like climate-change, inequalities and poverty, it even become a moral argument for developing AI quickly and bringing its benefits as soon and as widely as is safely possible. But let’s take a look at the other road: what if alignment is much harder than expected, and making highly-capable AI turns out to be easier than figuring out how to keep them from doing unhinged things? Well, if alignment is too difficult a problem for humans to solve, then maybe: 5. AI could help us make future AI safe And we arrive at the same conclusion again: if using AI to build safe AI is the way to solve alignment, let’s get the equivalent of a country full of geniuses helping us as fast as possible. These genius AI could be the solution to make AI safe by helping researchers find mistakes, test ideas, and develop protections. Instead of relying entirely on humans to solve alignment, we could build systems that help us do the work, each generation could help make the next one safe. Note that this requires the order of events to work in our favor: AI needs to become useful enough to help solve alignment before it becomes too dangerous to rely on. The hope is to build helpful, trustworthy research assistants before building systems powerful enough to become dangerous. There are more arguments but in general, these are the main ways people concerned about powerful AI have found rational reasons to end up being the ones building it (and even to build it as fast as possible). ─── ❖ ─── On my side, I think several of these arguments underestimate the complexity of the world and how interconnected people’s reactions are. Moving faster while warning about catastrophe has psychological effects across a whole network of participants: it changes what people fear, whom they trust, and what they feel compelled to do. And those reactions can change whether the original reasoning actually holds because we live in a world of interconnected humans, not machines (yet). I also think these rational chains leave some of their consequences for society insufficiently explored. For instance, the concentration of power, shifts in geopolitical alliances, and changes in public opinion. These consequences matter both because they affect whether the strategy works and because they shape the world we end up living in. But this post is already long, so I’ll leave those questions for the next one.

I don’t understand people who say BAYC and other blue-chip NFTs on Ethereum should do what projects are doing on Robinhood. Everyone in the space has strong opinions about projects that are in a downtrend. Not to mention, blue-chip NFTs on Ethereum and blue-chip NFTs on Robinhood aren’t even in the same league. Instead of criticising projects just because their floor price is down, start appreciating the teams for staying focused on their direction while everyone else in the space is jumping from one chain to another in search of quick bucks. Easier said than done. Like Gordon Goner once said:

🇮🇹🇻🇦🇺🇸 Italian PM SLAMS Trump after attack on Pope Leo: "The statements, particularly about the Pope, were unacceptable. I expressed my solidarity with Pope Leo, and I'll tell you more: frankly, I would not feel comfortable in a society where religious leaders do what political leaders tell them to do, let's say, not in this part of the world. So I did not agree."

one cool learning from writing Company Dispatches is that interviewing people is not enough. observing is where all the best texture and anecdotes comes from. what people say they do <> what they actually do. people are also pretty bad at describing their company's culture. how does a fish describe water?

The future isn't about AI replacing humans. The future is human plus AI. We often treat technology like it's a competitor in a race, but the best work has always happened when we treat it as a collaborator. AI brings the speed, the data processing, and the raw computational power. Humans bring the empathy, the nuance, the lived experience, and the soul. Think about it: ° AI can analyze thousands of medical scans in seconds, but a doctor delivers the care and context a patient needs to heal. ° AI can generate endless lines of code, but an engineer decides what problem is actually worth solving. ° AI can draft copy, but it takes human emotion to make someone truly feel something. When we stop worrying about being replaced and start focusing on being augmented, everything changes. The goal isn’t to build a world run by machines. It’s to build a world where machines handle the routine, so humans have the time and space to do what we do best: create, connect, and care. The most powerful tool in the world is still a human mind with a great assistant.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Tesla $TSLA rose 5% today, marking its best day since early July. The move comes ahead of Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab Launch Event, where investors will be watching for concrete updates on robotaxi deployment, Cybercab production, autonomy progress, and whether Tesla can turn the vehicle from a concept into a real revenue-generating fleet. Tesla has already disclosed that Cybercab production has started, with public-road engineering tests and employee rides beginning at Giga Texas. The key question is whether the event delivers actual deployment details rather than another demo, including timing, fleet size, city expansion, and cost-per-mile economics. 2. Treasury Secretary Bessent today at the G20 summit said he believes the Japanese government and Bank of Japan will take actions that lead to a stronger yen. On the Fed, he said he would not speculate on what policymakers may or may not do, but added that traditionally “you don’t raise into a supply shock.” On bonds, Bessent said he and Warsh are “on the same page,” while noting he does not believe he can change the market’s equilibrium price. He also said Trump believes Iran is not ready to make a deal yet, and that Operation Outcast is aimed at creating conditions that bring Iran back to the table. 3. Anthropic has reportedly signed a $35B cloud deal with Lambda, an Nvidia-backed cloud provider, according to WSJ. The twist: Nvidia $NVDA is effectively the landlord. The data center is being built by Hut 8 in Nueces County, Texas, and Nvidia signed its own agreement with Hut 8 a few weeks ago to lock down the capacity. Lambda will use that space to run chips it bought from Nvidia, which is also one of its investors. The deal highlights how Nvidia is extending its role beyond selling GPUs and deeper into the AI infrastructure stack with financing, capacity access, cloud partners, and the physical data center footprint behind frontier AI demand. 4. The FTC and 22 states are reportedly preparing to sue Amazon $AMZN over alleged secret ad price hikes. The FTC is expected to claim Amazon manipulated its ad auctions by inserting its own “soft reserve” bid above the runner-up bid, effectively raising the minimum price advertisers had to pay. The practice allegedly began in 2018 and generated tens of billions of dollars over 7 years. In recent years, Amazon allegedly used the mechanism to raise minimum bids 70%–80% of the time, with the FTC claiming it increased pay-per-click costs by as much as 50% on major shopping days. Amazon generated $68B in advertising revenue in 2025, and this would mark the FTC’s third major case against the company after its Prime case and ongoing monopoly lawsuit. 5. Retail investors bought roughly $250M of Nvidia $NVDA shares on Wednesday, their 3rd-largest daily purchase since mid-May. That extended the retail buying streak to 15 consecutive trading sessions, with investors purchasing more than $2.5B of Nvidia stock over that period. For context, the largest daily retail purchase came in late February at about $1.0B. Over the last 12 months, retail investors have bought roughly $30.0B of Nvidia shares, the most of any Magnificent 7 company. 6. The White House published details of the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal, saying Venezuela has granted North American Blue Energy Partners 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields. The fields reportedly contain roughly 65B barrels of proven oil reserves, while NABEP plans to invest up to $100B into Venezuelan oil infrastructure to rapidly increase production. As part of the deal, the U.S. government receives a 35% equity stake in NABEP’s parent company at “zero cost to taxpayers,” the right to purchase 20% of all current and future production at production cost, and the right of first refusal on the remaining 80%. The U.S. also gets veto power over board appointments, with a majority of NABEP’s board required to be U.S. citizens. Venezuela is expected to receive roughly $200B in royalties and tax payments over the first 25 years, while the White House is calling it the “biggest oil deal in world history.” 7. U.S. annual interest expense has climbed to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue, officially surpassing the prior record of 18.4% set in 1991. This share has more than quadrupled over the last 4 years as interest costs on public debt have surged. Annual interest expense now stands at a record $1.25T, more than 4x the level seen in 1991. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield is trading around 5.21%, just 13 bps below its highest level since 2007. For context, the 30-year yield was around 8.00% in 1991, highlighting how much larger the U.S. debt burden has become. 8. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on Meta $META with an $810 price target, highlighting the potential launch of Meta’s consumer AI agent Hatch in early September inside Instagram and WhatsApp. Hatch can reportedly browse websites and navigate user interfaces to complete autonomous tasks like purchases, restaurant bookings, form filling, and communications. Meta is also reportedly targeting an October launch for its new AI model, Watermelon, which has shown frontier-level performance on certain internal benchmarks, with Hatch expected to integrate Watermelon’s automation capabilities after launch. BofA sees a major long-term opportunity in consumer AI agents, with Meta’s global user base giving it a significant adoption advantage, but said success will depend on ease of use, real utility, ecosystem integration, user trust around automation and security, and subscription pricing that creates consumer value while earning a return on Meta’s compute investment. 9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 4.4M contracts, $NVDA with 3.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $AMZN with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 952K contracts, $META with 606K contracts, $SPCX with 561K contracts, $INTC with 470K contracts, $PCG with 460K contracts, and $GOOG with 453K contracts. 10. Trump said interest rates are “too high” and said he has “a lot of respect” for Fed’s Warsh, adding that Warsh will “do what he has to do.” On Iran, Trump said any strikes would be limited, while noting that a lot of oil is still coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. He said ships came through Hormuz last night with Navy assistance and that the U.S. is averaging about 30 ships per night out of the Strait. Trump also said Iran “doesn’t know who the leader is,” adding, “we’ll see what happens.” 11. Take-Two $TTWO fell 7% as GTA 6 leaks continued ahead of the November 19 release. Recent leaked footage has reportedly shown combat, vehicle theft, the return of the six-star wanted system, a biplane flight over Vice City, and a 4.5-minute Lucia story clip. The pressure reflects growing concern around how much of the game is being revealed before launch, even as GTA 6 remains one of the most anticipated releases in gaming history. 12. China’s CXMT has reportedly started small-scale production of HBM3E, the advanced memory used in AI processors including Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs, according to The Information. Alibaba’s T-Head and Cambricon are already testing CXMT’s HBM with their AI chips and could begin using it in products as early as 2027, with CXMT planning to expand production next year. The development could ease a key bottleneck for China’s domestic AI-chip industry, which remains restricted from buying the most advanced foreign HBM. The caveat is that CXMT is still facing low yields and remains roughly 3–5 years behind the leading HBM players, while $SKHY SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron $MU are already mass-producing HBM4 and sampling HBM4E. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Today is the last “Mike’s Thoughts from the Porch.” For more than 60 days I’ve shown up here every single day with whatever random thought was rattling around in my brain. Here’s the truth: it’s not doing what I hoped it would do. What I pictured in my head was a show. Something you’d actually want to come back to every day. That’s not what I made. I made 60 days of thoughts. Admitting that out loud is harder than it sounds. I’ve been in marketing a long time. I’m supposed to know how this works. But that changes tomorrow. Tomorrow I’m going to ask you for something I’ve never asked for before. And then I’m going to run with it for months — in public, on this porch, where you can all watch whether it works or it falls apart. I’m not telling you what it is today. I just hope you show up tomorrow. If you’ve been here for any part of these 60 days, thank you. The next thing is going to need you a lot more than the last one did. See you tomorrow 👇 #AIinMarketing# #FounderLife# #MarketingTips# #SocialMediaExaminer#