FOMC + Unemployment Claims Recap: Yesterday, the Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with Cook and Hammack pushing for another 25 bps hike. The Fed upgraded its economic outlook from "solid" to "strong," while warning that inflation remains elevated. Warsh offered no clear signal on December. Markets still see a significant chance of a December hike. BTC reaction was muted around the decision, softened overnight back near $80k, classic “priced-in hold + ongoing inflation concern” price action. Today's jobless claims: • Initial claims: 194K vs. 199K expected • Previous week: 195K (revised) • Continuing claims: 1.701M, down 21K Layoffs remain low, suggesting the labor market is holding up despite elevated interest rates. That's good news for economic growth, but it also gives the Fed less reason to ease policy while inflation remains stubborn.

FOMC holds at 3.75–4.00%. Vote: 10–2. Both dissents (Cook, Hammack) wanted another 25bp hike. That’s two votes for back-to-back tightening less than a week before the midterms. What Warsh put on the table: 1) H1 GDP revised up to 2.4%, from 1.8% 2) Q3 likely tracking above 3% 3) Inflation above target for close to six years No clear signal on December. Overall, the meeting delivered an expected hold with hawkish undertones. Scheduled rate decisions drop to seven in 2027 and six in 2028. Fewer decision points and no guidance between them means each meeting carries more weight, and more risk of surprise.

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FOMC Summary 🏦 - Rates unchanged - No surprise, this was 92% consensus - 10-2 decision, Cook + Hammack dissented, they wanted a hike - Inflation remains "elevated" - Situation in Iran adding to this Stage is set for a December rate hike Let's see what Warsh has to say

FOMC Key Interest Rate Unchanged; Target Range Stands At 3.75% - 4.00%, As Expected - Reverse Repo Rate Unchanged At 3.75% - Interest On Reserve Balances Rate Unchanged At 3.90% - 10-2 Vote; Hammack And Cook Dissented In Favor Of A 25bp Hike #FOMC# $USDPY $DXY