Spot has been bidding $BTC for 3 days now. Yet, BTC isn't rallying because of heavy shorting on perps. I think this is due to uncertainty around FOMC and US midterm elections, and once resolved, we could see a nice uptrend.

Fed will most likely pause today. But that doesn't mean no rate hikes will happen in 2026. The market is expecting a 84% chance of another Fed rate hike in 2026. And maybe Kevin Warsh will hint at it during today's press conference. The reason is rising inflation, which has been the primary goal for the Fed. I’ve got a special deal for my community: trade with me and get a $25 bonus when you trade $50:

FOMC interest rate decision will be out in 5 hours. After the last 2 FOMC meetings, Bitcoin had a decent pump. July: $BTC rallied 30% in 4 weeks. September: BTC rallied 16% in just 1 week. What'll happen this time?

$BTC morning run to $81,800 got fully sold back. Now we're sitting right on $80,700 support. Who is selling? Futures, not spot. How I see it: Sellers are in control short term. Losing $80,750 likely means a trip to $80,000.

Today’s decision may be less important than the message that comes with it. I don’t expect the Fed to change rates today. What matters more is whether policymakers leave the door open for another hike before the end of the year. There’s a good reason to expect that. Inflation is still proving stubborn. Demand remains fairly strong, while supply-side pressures are adding to the problem. At the same time, the labor market is starting to weaken, even if that isn’t fully showing up in the headline data yet. That puts the Fed in a difficult position. Cutting too soon could reignite inflation, but keeping rates high for too long could put more pressure on the labor market. For now, I think the Fed will prioritize inflation. So while today may be a pause, I don’t think the tightening story is necessarily over. I’d expect the Fed to keep a December hike firmly on the table.

$BTC tapped the 50D MA and is now around $81,500. US stock futures are up, while Gold and Silver are down. Pre-market stock trading insights: ▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.45% 🟠 ▫️S&P futures is up 0.18% 🟠

FOMC interest rate decision will happen today at 2PM ET. 91% odds of a rate pause, so it has pretty much priced in. At 2:30PM ET, Kevin Warsh's press conference will start, which is the most important one. Since the last FOMC meeting, both CPI and PPI have spiked higher, which means the inflation problem is getting worse. If Warsh hints at more future rate hikes, markets could selloff hard. And if he hints at a rate pause, BTC could tap the $82K-$82.5K zone.