My co-founder
@ArmanHezarkhani broke down Kimi K3 (new 2.8T parameter Chinese model) on
@FoxBusiness today with
@cvpane.
We had our engineers testing it all day before he went on air.
Here's the gist:
1) K3 is very good. As good, if not better, than many of the American frontier models.
2) The cost story is being misread. Everyone expects a Chinese model to be the cheap one. Per token, K3 is competitive. Per run (the actual job you outsource to the model), it's as expensive as the frontier models. But it's supposedly open source, so developers will attack the cost curve. Give it weeks, not quarters.
3) The playbook should look familiar. It's the same one China ran on solar panels & EVs: flood the market with cheap supply, wait for the addiction, then move the price.
4) The internet & the space race were funded by the US government, and innovators competed on top of the platform. AI got funded by private markets, and now the same companies that spent those trillions are getting hamstrung right as China gives its models away.
5) On guardrails: the bad guys will have completely unconstrained tools no matter what we do. Foreign adversaries, and bad actors here at home. If the good guys don't have equally powerful tools, only one side is armed.
6) Commoditized models are actually good news for the hyperscalers. All that open source intelligence has to run somewhere, and Google & AWS will get paid a lot of money to run it.
7) The labs saw this coming too. It's why Anthropic & OpenAI are racing up the application layer instead of just selling tokens.