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Danielle DiMartino Booth
@DiMartinoBooth
CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist #FedUp#
462 Following    338.4K Followers
Bad hair days?
A mass homebuyer exodus is hitting Miami. Transactions have fallen 47% from their pandemic peak. From 3,600 in August 2021. To only 1,900 in August 2026. This represents the lowest sales activity Miami-Dade has seen since the end of the last housing crash. In fact, sales today are about 25% below pre-pandemic norms. The reason this is happening is because locals in Miami cannot afford the prices. The typical mortgage payment in Miami-Dade, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $5,000/month. While the local median income is only $80,000. The math simply doesn't make sense, and buyers are locked out as a result. Zoom in to your ZIP to see sales and price data at
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“Syndicator firms that went big on multifamily during the pandemic are now barely afloat” Move-in fees have sunk 28.2% YoY even as @realtordotcom reports August saw 37th straight YoY rent decline. Apartment values fell ~3.5% MoM & are >20% below their 2022 peak @newsgreenstreet
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🎯 "He needs to be a little bit more forthright and articulate about how exactly raising interest rates after 3 years is going to help the average working man and woman in this country" says @DiMartinoBooth The central issue raised here is how the Fed expects the benefits of tighter policy to reach households while higher borrowing costs are already being felt.
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I'm back @KOAColorado for Ross Kaminsky w/ @KOAJeana, fresh off a @Broncos home win! 🏈 ☑️ Full coverage & analysis of Broncos-Jaguars ☑️ Fed Expert Danielle @DiMartinoBooth talks Fed moves, interest rates, bonds & more Listen LIVE 6-9a MT 🎧 📻 850 AM | 94.1 FM | KOAColorado 📲 Text the Show at 56690 🔗 Weblink in comments 👇
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Won’t be the last of these we see. It reminds us of the perils of Too Low for Too Long monetary policy.
The FBI has opened a probe into Texas-based multifamily syndicator Lurin Capital following a series of lawsuits alleging fraud. Launched in 2016, Lurin had amassed a portfolio of 10,000 Class-C apartments across five Sun Belt states. The company planned to upgrade the properties, raise rents and flip them for a profit. In 2025, ACORE Capital Mortgage moved to foreclose on 12 Florida Panhandle properties owned by Lurin that backed a nearly $400M loan. More than 2,000 units hit the auction block, TRD reported. ACORE also won a summary judgment against Venetos after he personally guaranteed almost $20M in mezzanine loans, TRD reported this month. #CommercialRealEstate#
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Read The Weekly Quill Now —  The Fed Blows Its Lead into the Fourth Quarter #federalreserve# #interestrates# #kevinwarsh# #dimartinobooth# #economy#
And if we invert?
TSY CURVE observations CONCLUSION: do NOT fade latter part of curve flattening. *USYC5Y30* 5 consecutive weeks flatter. 17 occurrences in 20 yrs. 59 % next week is flatter. 6 weeks flatter. 9 occurrences in 20 yrs. 89 % next week STEEPER Momentum halt-ONLY in a non hiking regime
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Why let facts disturb a perfectly choreographed narrative inhaled by uniformed masses drinking @tiktok_us Kool-aid? Fact: US Treasuries can be bought by those draped in drag, especially when said buying is funneled through dark off-shore entities #TradeTheNarrativeOwnTheTrurh#
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The "news": China holdings of US treasuries fall to the lowest since 2008. The facts: foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries are at a record high. via Bloomberg
I asked Danielle DiMartino Booth how the stock market has managed to stay so resilient despite interest rates climbing higher. Do you agree with her take?
Office special servicing rose 32 basis points to 16.90%. Retail also climbed 32 basis points to 13.60%, while lodging added 11 basis points to reach 8.74%. Mixed-use jumped 154 basis points to 13.47% because of the Los Angeles portfolio @TreppWire
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August @TreppWire show large maturity defaults pushed CMBS SS rate higher post July’s decline…increased 33 bps to 11.4% to Feb 2013 high. New transfers hit $3.2B across 32 whole loans, ~2x July total. Loans cured/returned to master servicing/paid off=$500M across 14 whole loans.
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Are your listening ears ON?
Oil is $101. The guest on tonight’s show is talking $240 crude before this cycle is over without saying Iran as a premise once. Benny & The Squirrel Ep. 87 - “Oil to $240” with Rob Connors (@crudechronicle) is live - Enjoy! @SquirrelMacro via @YouTube
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New Episode 🎧 Every time I talk to @DiMartinoBooth I come away thinking the gap between the ‘official’ story and what's actually happening in the economy is wider than people realize. We sat down right after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023 to discuss what’s next. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Trailer 00:40 Rate increase reaction 1:17 What's happening to businesses 2:56 Another hike in 2026? 4:14 Nothing stops this debt train 5:57 Is AI driving growth? 7:48 How should investors position?
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My Lone Star State.
UPDATE: As of last night, Texas continues to lead the country on accidental landlords and this rate is accelerating. 13% of every single family home for rent in Texas right now is coming from people who tried to sell their home first and couldn't. Just 4 weeks ago this was 11%. There is so much supply in Texas people are trying all avenues to generate cash flow on their properties.
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The way I read this, someone is quite possibly chasing a chimera.
Whenever Warsh turns to specifics and get precise, it really stands out (because so much of the rest is fillers). Today he introduces another “Warsh” indicator for watching geopolitics. The three things he has told us he watches: 1) share of the 199 pce components at >3% inflation at 6 and 12 month annualized 2) the second derivative of ai capex 3) and today, on watching the inflation spillovers from geopolitical – the difference between spot prices for corn, soybeans, wheat and so-called crack spreads.  Of those 3, the first likely came down in August, the second probably ex post will have proved to have peaked this year.
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.@DiMartinoBooth discusses the Fed's rate decision, its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary. Looking ahead, she explains why upcoming economic data will be increasingly important. She also shares her thoughts on the AI trade, urging investors to be "careful" and maintain a diversified portfolio. For more:
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Credit Stress Is Here And The Only Place Left To Hide Is Precious Metals | Danielle DiMartino Booth Fed rate hike September 2026. Kevin Warsh raised rates and won't call conditions restrictive. Danielle DiMartino Booth on what that lands on. >> Full Interview at Kitco News: The @federalreserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, unanimously, with 12 of 18 officials projecting at least one more increase this year. Chair Kevin Warsh called it removing "a dose of accommodation" rather than tightening, and said he'd be hard pressed to describe financial conditions as restrictive. Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder of QI Research and a former advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, argues the opposite. She says US small business bankruptcies are up 64% year over year through August, that more than 200 companies have closed every month for five months running, and that 57% of Americans who took cash out refinancing in Q2 accepted a higher mortgage rate to do it. On the data behind the decision, she says the seasonal adjustments at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are "clearly broken" and the official numbers are "at best misleading." On where that leaves investors, she says that whenever there is stress in credit markets, the only place you can hide with any certainty is precious metals. Recorded September 16, 2026 Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on X: @DiMartinoBooth 00:00 The Fed Just Hiked for the First Time in Three Years 01:26 Why Warsh Calling It "a Dose of Accommodation" Spooked Markets 03:03 Would the Fed Really Hike Again Days Before the Election 05:07 The Retail Sales Number That Isn't What It Looks Like 07:31 The Warning Shot Aimed at the Treasury 09:18 Small Business Bankruptcies Are Up 64% 11:00 The Fed and Main Street Are Looking at Two Different Economies 12:00 How a Margin Squeeze Becomes a Layoff 12:45 What This Hike Costs a Household This Week 16:15 The Only Place She Says You Can Hide With Any Certainty 17:37 Why She Says the Jobs Data Is Broken 19:07 What Breaks First if the Fed Got This Wrong
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I joined ‘Bloomberg Surveillance’ to discuss today's Fed announcements — listen in now #federalreserve# #dimartinobooth# #kevinwarsh# #economy#
I will be speaking at the 52nd Annual NOIC — Register now to have a seat at the table! October 28-31 —  #NOICconference# #NewOrleansInvestmentConference# #federalreserve# #dimartinobooth# #economy#
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