Waller pinned his December rate hike view on October CPI above or below 0.3, despite the fact that oil has dropped 22% in a straight line since that data was collected and energy is by far the number one driver of inflation. Absolute silliness. Hard to identify what framework he's using at this point. I don’t want to overreact because he is turning max hawkish right after a massive drop in oil prices and that seems objectively silly. He said today’s CPI will influence his decision, which is odd, because that figure does not include U.S. voters’ rejection of the war last week and Trump’s apparent climbdown. So this is a strange week for him to turn max hawkish-–he was the leader of the doves less than a year ago.

I asked my Warsh-bot: Q: October cpi printed 0.30% above Wall Street estimate of 0.2%. How does that change your thinking going into the December 2026 meeting? *simulated response, not actual Warsh words “A bit of self-deprecation first: I'm told one-tenth of a percentage point is the sort of thing that launches a thousand research notes, and I will try not to add to the pile. My own sense is this. First, trends matter more than data points, so I want to know what happened to the six- and twelve-month rates and how many components are running above 3 percent, against the 54 percent we saw in August. Second, I'd want to know whether it was energy or something that broadens, because the second- and third-order effects are what concern me. Third, what are inflation swaps and expectations doing, since those are our signposts. Fourth, how did financial conditions behave around it? If markets are tightening on their own, that is policy working. It strikes me that the Committee will have more information by December than it does today, and I would want the family fight to be about substance. What matters in the end is that we deliver price stability.”

The Missing Inflation Number And The Convenient Absence of Accountability The October CPI report on November 10 will omit annual headline and core inflation figures. BLS says the 2025 government shutdown prevented collection of the October prices needed for comparison. That explanation is legitimate. But the timing and absence of even a clearly labeled estimate raise questions about transparency. The Inflation Picture September CPI inflation reached 3.7% annually. Independent estimates suggest October could approach 4%, while hourly wages are growing around 3.1%. If those estimates hold, purchasing power is deteriorating amid an energy shock. Economists expect monthly headline CPI of 0.3% and core CPI of 0.2%. Following September’s larger increase, those numbers could be presented as inflation cooling. But a slower monthly increase does not erase annual price pressures. Omitting the annual figures removes a comparison Americans readily understand. The Methodological Contradiction BLS says missing October 2025 observations prevent an official annual reading. Yet BLS used interpolated figures for seasonal adjustments, while BEA estimated the missing month for other calculations. Estimates cannot recreate prices never collected. An observed figure and a modeled estimate are different. But if estimates are used elsewhere, why not publish an experimental annual range with transparent assumptions and uncertainty? Instead, the annual comparison disappears. Why December Matters The Fed meets December 8 and 9. The next CPI report is scheduled for December 10, making October the last scheduled CPI release before its decision. An estimated annual rate near 4% would sharpen an uncomfortable dilemma. If the Fed raises rates, it risks further weakening investment, refinancing conditions and employment. If it holds, it must explain why persistent inflation does not justify additional tightening. Much of the headline pressure comes from energy. Higher rates cannot repair refineries, increase diesel supplies or resolve shipping disruptions. They can increase financing costs for businesses already facing weaker demand and heavy debt. The Fed must still prevent energy inflation from spreading into broader prices. It targets PCE rather than CPI and has other inflation information available, so a CPI estimate would not dictate its decision. But it would make the tradeoff harder to gloss over publicly. A monthly increase of 0.3% is easier to frame as progress than an annual rate near 4% alongside wage growth of 3.1%. The Bigger Concern BLS announced the limitation in September. There is no evidence officials deliberately suppressed an unfavorable figure. Nevertheless, a genuine data problem creates an opportunity to emphasize a softer monthly number while avoiding a less reassuring annual comparison. The concern is not a hidden exact figure. It is that Americans may hear inflation is cooling while purchasing power continues to erode. If modeled values are already used elsewhere, publishing a clearly labeled estimate with caveats is reasonable. A missing inflation number does not mean inflation has improved. Nor should its absence justify portraying the economy more favorably than the evidence supports.

A mass homebuyer exodus is hitting Miami. Transactions have fallen 47% from their pandemic peak. From 3,600 in August 2021. To only 1,900 in August 2026. This represents the lowest sales activity Miami-Dade has seen since the end of the last housing crash. In fact, sales today are about 25% below pre-pandemic norms. The reason this is happening is because locals in Miami cannot afford the prices. The typical mortgage payment in Miami-Dade, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $5,000/month. While the local median income is only $80,000. The math simply doesn't make sense, and buyers are locked out as a result. Zoom in to your ZIP to see sales and price data at