Neoclouds: A Short Story
-> $NBIS: 242% YTD - "Nebius will take care of you" ( $NVDA's Jensen Huang).
-> $CRWV: 67% YTD - debt machine.
-> $IREN: 58% YTD - excessive dilution.
Nebius will become a $100B company in Q3.
Space Infrastructure
AI Neocloud / Power Infrastructure
AI Biotech / Digital Health
Photonics
Energy Storage / Grid Resilience
Physical AI / Robotics Sensing
Memory Infrastructure / CXL
Counter-UAS / Defense Tech
SiC Power Semiconductors
Seagate's CEO Dave Mosley says the neoclouds he once wrote off as pure GPU shops are now buying hard drives too, because as they mature they want their data sitting next to their compute instead of renting it back from a hyperscaler.
"Two years ago, I would have said neocloud is probably largely compute-based, but we're starting to see that even some of the largest neoclouds, they need a lot of data coming at them."
"And where did they get that data in the past? They might have got that from traditional hyperscalers, but there are some places where neoclouds are saying, I need instances close to me."
"By the way, I do not think that's necessarily competitive with the hyperscalers."
Increase in share count of the neoclouds over the last 3 year! - $IREN issued six shares for every one it had.
Three caveats with this data:
$NBIS is not a dilution story. Share count fell because Yandex divested and cancelled shares — 2024 count dropped 24% from 2023. Nothing to do with capital discipline. It's on the chart marked, because leaving it off looks like cherry-picking.
$CRWV has no real 3-year record — it only listed in March 2025. Pre-IPO counts are a private cap structure, not comparable. Its one-year number is the honest one: shares up 122% in the last twelve months.
$APLD's fiscal year ends in May, so its window is 2.2 years, not 3. Slightly flatters it versus the others.
The clean comparison is really $IREN, $WULF and $CIFR. IREN is the outlier by a mile — six shares for every one it had, while the stock still went up, which is why nobody noticed.
Disclaimer: $WULF share counts differ by source right now. Stockanalysis shows 424M while Morningstar shows 495.53M.
Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms.
Costco: sells $5 chickens.
Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”.
Stock Market: sells off Costco.
Doing extensive analysis on the wider neocloud ecosystem.
I'm curious: which one of these names is your favourite?
Ranked by market cap:
$HUT @ $13.38B
$GLXY @ $13.01B
$WULF @ $12.91B
$APLD @ $12.20B
$CIFR @ $10.02B
$CORZ @ $8.77B
$CLSK @ $4.23B
$SHAZ @ $1.04B
$HIVE @ $1.38B CAD
$WYFI @ $953M
Any others I should look into?
Other than the obvious $NBIS / $CRWV / $IREN type names.
Disclosure:
- I personally hold positions in a lot of these companies from 2025.
- Current research is to identify the ones to increase concentration in / start new positions in.
Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March...
And why Gemini got super nerfed.
$GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints.
Google's CEO said from last earnings computing power restrictions prevented Google Cloud from taking on more customer needs and made the department's backlog nearly double the previous quarter.
This is probably positive for the AI DC capex buildout since hyperscalers capacity is way below what is needed, and especially so if they can't rely on one another.