🇺🇸 GDP The New York Fed trimmed its Q4 2026 US GDP Nowcast to 2.82% from 2.83%, leaving the growth outlook virtually unchanged 👉 h/t @NewYorkFed #recession# #GDP# #realGDP# #economy#

The real 10-year yield is now 2.67% and is above the US economy’s potential real GDP growth rate of 2.5%. That is a significant and somewhat troubling milestone. Yes, margins are still rising and credit spreads remain tight and earnings are still booming, but investors are not paying up for what well may be peak earnings growth. The result is an S&P 500 that has treaded water since early June, with only 29% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 53% above their 200-day MA.

Consensus real GDP growth is 2.1% over the next year... with 1yr inflation swaps steady at 2.5%. All of it suggests 4.6% nominal growth... for as much as folks say we are humming at 6-7% nominal. And, of course, bonds look ahead (not behind). With the 10yr piercing 5%...

Crypto needs real GDP, not just speculation. @santiagoroel (Founder, @inversion_cap) returns to TOKEN2049 Dubai on 29-30 April. He's acquiring operating businesses and embedding crypto rails for payments, efficiency, and UX. This is what mainstream adoption actually looks like.