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Santiago R Santos
@santiagoroel
founder @inversion_cap | posts are not investment advice
1.8K Following    133.7K Followers
Do you care how much time went into the task, or that it’s right? Everyone says right. But time spent is how people actually ascribe value, and that’s becoming less true with AI In industrial processes nobody argues you should burn more inputs to prove you care. In discrete complex tasks…TBD Sometimes you do need the time to understand the thing. But craftsmanship isn’t a function of time as much as taste. Time and quality can decouple, and will decouple more with AI Though the premium won’t disappear everywhere. Brands have sold “hand made” for decades and someone will sell “no AI” the same way
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If it’s good writing or product, who cares if it’s AI-generated? If you find value in it, that’s the most important thing The downstream impact of this is more people will publish and capturing attention will be harder Attention economy folks - if you can capture it, good for you!
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IMO the most interesting thing that happened in society today: The WSJ's leading op-ed today, by Stan Druckenmiller, was entirely AI generated. If you read the text, it's glaringly obvious. There's no way the editors at the WSJ don't have an ear for AI-written prose. They know what AI sounds like; they're not stupid. They published this anyway. Is this the new normal? Does it mean AI writing is finally good enough to publish in the WSJ, and we need to stop being so precious about AI-voice? Or does it mean that if you're famous and important, it's OK to just push out AI-written content so long as your byline is on it and you stand by the consequences? We understand that famous people have speechwriters, and so long as they deliver the speech, we consider it theirs. Maybe that feeling that something AI written is not your authorship is an anachronism that will fade away in a few years.
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"The people who eventually break world records, win Nobel prizes, and dominate grandmaster chess were total generalists early on." this is interesting. being a generalist young is really just being very curious, and curiosity is the thing that eventually disappears in most people. school and social media don’t help…neither one rewards curiosity. they train you to switch to instant gratification instead AI is probably the only tool that delivers the instant gratification and preserves the curiosity chat gives every kid a tutor who never runs out of patience. no question is stupid, and they’ll ask things they’d never raise a hand for code gives them an engineer. it feels damn empowering to watch your own idea come to life agents let them ship it and focus on the things that matter most i believe more kids will stay curious longer, because they can pursue many more interests as far as they want before picking one. that used to cost a lot more time and money and moreover, many more people are rediscovering their creative side and becoming curious again with AI
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Your parents lied to you. Researchers analyzed career trajectories of 34,839 top performers across multiple domains, including Nobel laureates, elite chess players, and Olympic gold medalists. turns out: - the "gifted kid" almost never becomes the adult legend - future world-class performers were AVERAGE in youth - they explored 2-3 fields before specializing - early specialization actively destroys long-term potential we have spent decades driving children into a single lane, demanding they pick a sport, an instrument, or a subject before their brains are even fully formed. the data shatters that entire philosophy. researchers looked at 19 massive datasets tracking elite performers across every major domain. the finding is absolute: Early exceptional performance and ultimate adult world-class performance are two completely different populations. the kids who dominate international youth competitions? they burn out. they plateau. they peak at fifteen and vanish by twenty-five. meanwhile, the people who eventually break world records, win Nobel prizes, and dominate grandmaster chess were total generalists early on. they played multiple sports. they picked up different instruments. they explored random subjects. they started slow. they built a wide, multidisciplinary foundation while the "gifted kids" were trapped in a narrow tunnel. by the time the early specialists hit their ceiling, the generalists had the cognitive range to blow right past them.
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every company eventually becomes 11 people doing actual work and 64 people asking for updates
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In a bull market you’ll feel underallocated In a bear market you’ll feel overallocated
I’ve said this before and will say it again (I’ve seen many good soldiers killed by it): Leverage should be understood as an accelerator of time rather than a multiplier of risk. I am almost certain the person cranking it to 10x isn’t sitting there thinking, “I would like ten times the variance.” Nah, he is thinking: I have 100K and I just cannot tolerate how fucking long the unlevered path to 1M takes. The algo has completely fried our sense of how long that path is supposed to take. It disproportionately feeds you the 20-year-old who supposedly made $30M or the token that hit 100x overnight, and now with social trading you get to watch all of it happen live. So you end up recalibrating your clock against outliers. Add to that the fact that we are now being called uncs and plumbers at 30, and suddenly making it at 35 feels mediocre. It’s all a lie.....DO NOT believe it.....It’s an artificial deadline for success created by capitalist propaganda. If you are thinking or using leverage, understand what the actual fuck you are getting into. The more leverage you use, the less room there is for anything to go wrong. At zero leverage, being “right eventually” can still make you money, but as you crank it up, “eventually” starts disappearing. Being right on direction is no longer enough if the move happens too late or price takes the wrong path before getting there. And it gets worse once you understand ergodicity.....If you are a leverage junkie, you probably haven’t heard the word, so let me introduce you to it: Your outcome is determined by the sequence you live through, not by the average across hypothetical outcomes, and if one event in that sequence wipes you out, everything that could have happened after it becomes irrelevant. So when you say, “I only have a 10% chance of liquidation,” you are usually thinking about that trade in isolation. But you are going to trade again and again.....keep introducing a small probability of terminal failure into a long enough sequence and eventually that probability has a very good chance of finding you. Which is why the obsession with being early in life becomes so destructive. It makes you waste the one thing you have in abundance: future attempts. Do not collateralize them through leverage because you think you are running out of time. Get rid of that moronic idea.....You are not old at 30, 50 or 60.
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Memory contamination is an issue if you don’t verify
this might be one of the most f*cking useful things I've read about AI agents all week someone built memory into 4 different agent systems and found most of it is complete bullshit the real problem isn't agents forgetting things it's that they remember things they shouldn't trust and once one bad assumption enters the memory, every agent after it can treat it as fact
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Market always re-learns this Recurring is not the same as re-occurring Not all “recurring” revenue is created equal
Remember kids When someone says ARR is not annual reoccurring revenue It's annualized run rate, btw most this shit is 1 time and lumpy
listening to this week's All In Pod. They discuss the initiative to create a Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO) for AI It got me thinking…why haven't we created a SRO for crypto? I’ve been calling for industry-led best practices and self-regulation. Calling all crypto lawyers and reg experts to tell me why this is a bad idea…or legitimately the best path forward SRO seems like a way to get ahead of the most important issues: fair disclosures and consumer protection to promote market integrity
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One of the best things I’ve read in a while:
Citadel: AI Spending > AI spend per employee rose nearly 50% MoM in July among the top 1% of firms > AI spend per employee rose 25% MoM in July among the top 10% of firms Tokens are getting cheaper and spending is going up... $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $META
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This is actually insane. The website has HUNDREDS of FREE Grok Bots available for download. I went through the entire site and dug out the top 10 BEST Grok Bots you need to install now. 🧵: 10 Insanely powerful Grok Bots (install prompts included).👇
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JUST IN: AI reportedly played a key role in helping design Moderna's personalized skin cancer vaccine, which succeeded in a Phase 3 trial.
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Hard agree Been using nonstop
I think @bot is another “Claude Code” moment for AI. I would estimate my personal AI usage is up something like 100x. And for everyone who reached out about how to build a “podcast summarizer” it took me about 15 seconds in Grok Bot and is better than what I had before.
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🇳🇱 A robot called Aletta is now drawing blood completely on its own. Using AI and ultrasound, it finds the vein, inserts the needle, takes the blood, removes the needle, and puts on a bandage. No human hands required. Up to 98% patients said they would do it again. It's already being used in several Dutch hospitals. Writer: Sol
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Tokens aren't dead, but we need better disclosure standards. @santiagoroel says better disclosure standards could give investors the confidence to put substantially more capital onchain.
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Covered a lot of ground w @AviFelman on @1000xPod always a treat to sit down with him and share ideas
Ethereum is the federal government and instead of charging 30% tax it charges 1% and lets states and counties charge the bulk of the tax Security is the most mispriced asset in blockchain land federal states can make it hard for citizens to leave and few (ie US) can enforce worldwide tax - as a US citizen you pay the tax because they can use violence against you blockchains can’t and never will they are by design open source and easy to leave, so they will always struggle to grow GDP via taxation Users (builders and user aggregators) will always have an incentive to leave and go to a tax friendly jurisdiction once you get taxed any amount because they control the user. So Ethereum and others can’t tax too much I don’t see an easy solution to this problem other than being an integrated chain that owns the user relationship and can monetize the flow and enforce some control of who enters and leaves Robinhood can do this Stripe can do this Infra crypto-native providers can’t And if that’s the case then what’s the point of blockchains if you have a single entity that controls it. Databases all the way down. Robinhood is simply replacing citadel and monetizing the flow themselves via robinhood chain - as they should
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