Semis and memory sold off hard. Oil keeps sliding. The S&P 500 has barely moved. Setup, or warning? Plus Fundstrat's top 5 large-cap and top 5 SMID-cap stock ideas for the month, with live technical analysis on every name. @fundstrat's Tom Lee and @MarkNewtonCMT go live Thursday at 2pm ET. Start your free trial to attend live:

All semis are down but $CBRS is rallying This is some modeling I recently did - basically, when the share price gets close to USD 200, imo the risk-reward starts to look attractive. Took a smaller position recently after the huge sell off. Obviously not investment advice

Tough to say if semis have bottomed now. With most AI infra names having green days. - From $SIVE, $AEHR, and $IQE up over 20%. - To $SNDK, $MU and $AAOI up over 10%. Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity: - 22 Jul: $GOOGL Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year. - 22-23 Jul: $AMD Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027. - 23 Jul: $INTC Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum. - 23 Jul: $IBM Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses. - 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative. - 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released - 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift. - 29-30 Jul: $META, $MSFT, $AMZN earnings: more capex datapoints. - 30 Jul: June core PCE And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis. Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon. All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees. AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.

SiC Power Semis - China’s Yangjie Tech says capacity is fully booked (SCMP) Positive indicator for $IFX $WOLF $STM The SiC industry has been in strong oversupply in recent years, so as more companies can't meet rising demand, this is a bullish indicator that orders will also be coming towards $WOLF. $WOLF's New York SiC fab remains heavily underutilized, so fresh order flow will give it tremendous operating leverage.

Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes. Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits. China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1. Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked. “Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs. Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these: - nonferrous metals like copper and tin. -Plastic molding compounds - chemicals, and packaging consumables “Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes) So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)