Leif Soreide
@LeifSoreide
US Investing Champion 2019 | Momentum/Breakout Stock Trader | Founder of Champion Team Trading | Think Beyond The Pattern | *Not Investment Advice
191 Following 64.2K Followers
Does $NVDA look fixed to you?
The stocks ripping off their lows today are probably frustrating everyone trying to buy proper base breakouts.
A big green day feels good, but repairing damage and building something buyable are two different things.
I'd rather see the market reward constructive setups than chase every oversold bounce.
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We're all watching the potential Follow-Through Day, but how about the dollar?
We should have betting markets on how many times we FinX'ers say "Follow-Through Day" before the close. 😆
Big ramp in $UUP today. A stronger dollar can tighten financial conditions and create another headwind for risk assets.
Something worth watching before getting too excited about the potential FTD.
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A Follow-Through Day?
Today could be a follow-through day. That’s usually when we start looking for opportunities to put money to work.
But there’s a catch. The gap is being driven by semiconductors, still one of the weaker groups, following a strong $CRWV report. Meanwhile, most of our setups are in medical and healthcare, and that group is red this morning.
Half of all follow-through days fail. Watch @mwebster1971 videos on FTD's, that's your homework!
Here’s the question I’d keep in mind: Where do you think we’ll be one week from today? In a full-blown, glorious uptrend, or still dealing with chop, failed breakouts, and uneven leadership?
We don’t need to predict the answer. We need to manage risk while the market figures it out.
A follow-through day is a reason to get more engaged, not a reason to throw caution out the window. This may be a day to test small, or not at all.
Let the quality of the setups and the market’s follow-through determine how much exposure we earn.
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Great dinner in Fort Lauderdale with @RossHaber and @RichardMoglen
Always a great time getting together with these guys. They bring the energy and always leave me fired up!
Had a blast coaching my son’s basketball team this season. The boys worked hard and got noticeably better, which is the whole point at this age.
Proud that Champion Team Trading got to sponsor them too.
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I don't think it's time to start tracking relative strength just yet.
You'll find good setups somewhere. But get involved too early and you're likely to get stopped out.
Don't confuse being good at finding setups with having a good environment to trade them.
That's not low-risk action.
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The mutual holders rule-
When semis get hit with forced selling, the damage doesn't necessarily stop with semis.
The same funds own software, industrials, financials, and other market leaders. When they need to raise cash, those positions can become sellers, too.
That's how sector-specific liquidation spreads into broader market weakness.
The next stock to break down may be what you thought was safe.
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$HUM earnings pivot.
Cup and handle breaking out right here.
In a strong market environment, I'm buying this. The setup is there. Could work, but the market backdrop matters. Just a watch for me.
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I don't think it's time to start tracking relative strength just yet.
You'll find good setups somewhere. But get involved too early and you're likely to get stopped out.
Don't confuse being good at finding setups with having a good environment to trade them.
That's not low-risk action.
Show more
Gridlock is usually good for stocks. I’m just not sure the midterm playbook applies cleanly this time.
Historically, a Republican President with a Democratic Congress has been one of the weaker setups, positive but below average. And those stats were built in calmer policy environments.
Policy keeps getting more extreme. The market has to price conditions the old seasonal data never saw. A pattern is only as reliable as the conditions that made it.
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Warning signs usually show up before a Stage 4 decline. Trading gets harder. Breakouts fail, stops get hit, and stocks stop following through.
Wasn't necessarily your execution. The market was telling you something.
Now watching bounce-and-roll shorts vs. a false breakdown $QQQ
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$SMH short position opened up to downside. After big rally yesterday it closed down. That's a clue to hold because any weakness would likely launch it lower.
$AAPL. False breakout, false breakdown, now another breakout.
I got out flat on the first one. Now it’s back through the highs.
I know exactly what @taplot would say: the right side of this chart still isn’t clean enough. And he was right about these setups more often than not.
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Want a life worth building?
Build a career you’re proud of. Surround yourself with good people who challenge you. Pursue hobbies you’re passionate about. Raise a big family, and actually show up for them.
Success isn’t just what you accomplish. It’s the life you build along the way.
@taplot lived it.
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Gridlock is usually good for stocks. I’m just not sure the midterm playbook applies cleanly this time.
Historically, a Republican President with a Democratic Congress has been one of the weaker setups, positive but below average. And those stats were built in calmer policy environments.
Policy keeps getting more extreme. The market has to price conditions the old seasonal data never saw. A pattern is only as reliable as the conditions that made it.
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Your worst trade often comes right after your best one.
A big win makes the next big swing feel easier. Confidence rises, size creeps up, and suddenly the setups that weren't good enough yesterday start looking attractive.
Look at Washington. Venezuela went well, which made Iran feel easier to justify, and the stakes got bigger.
Trading is no different.
The best time to be careful is right after you've been right.
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I'm heartbroken to learn that @taplot has passed away after a long, courageous fight with cancer.
It's hard to put into words what someone like him means to this community. He was an incredible trader, always willing to share what he knew, but what I'll remember most is the person behind the screens.
The timeline won't be the same without him. Neither will the lives of the people who were lucky enough to know him.
His son's words that he never stopped fighting, and that in the end he won, really hit home.
Rest easy, my friend. Thank you for being you. You won't be forgotten.
If you didn't know him, I hope you'll take a little time to watch this talk. It's a chance to get to know the person so many of us were lucky to know.
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Hey everyone,
If you are reading this, that means TaPlot has unfortunately passed away.
I am his oldest son, and I want to take a minute to sincerely thank every one of you that supported him throughout this fight, you helped him keep his motivation, but you also helped me a lot. When I was feeling worried about him, I would often go to his page and read all the supportive comments, and they would give us both so much hope.
He was a great dad, he never stopped fighting, not even in his last week. I sat beside him and told him he could rest and I was proud of him, and he simply shook his head. He still wasn't giving up.
It hurts losing him, because, losing my father means I lost the only man who ever truly wanted me to be better than himself.
I will not be deleting any of his posts, everything will stay here as it was.
There's one more thing I want to leave everyone with.
When my dad died, the cancer died too. It wasn't a loss, it was a tie. He's at peace, and the cancer isn't. So if you really think about it, he won. 🕊️
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The next batch of @TraderLion Podcasts will be awesome
@StanWeinstein13 In person
@RossHaber In Person
@LeifSoreide In Person
@martinlukkt on another stellar year
Dr Wish @WishingWealth potentially
Looking forward to all of them.
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The S&P can look fine while the average growth stock gets taken apart.
A handful of mega caps hold the index up while the names most of us actually trade are getting hit.
Every stock I closed last week is lower or stalled. Sometimes doing nothing is the best trade. $SPY
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