Leif Soreide
@LeifSoreide
US Investing Champion 2019 | Momentum/Breakout Stock Trader | Founder of Champion Team Trading | Think Beyond The Pattern | *Not Investment Advice
193 Following 63.1K Followers
The bond market has already done a lot of the Fed’s work.
With the 10-year above 5%, financial conditions are tightening before rates are even raised.
The market could actually rally on a dovish hike.
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$TWLO Just bought some over prior high.
Software still looks strong going into FOMC tomorrow.
Cup & handle, RS 92, RS line turning up..
That's leadership. Money's still showing up in the group even with data next.
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In this tape I scan theme strength first, then charts.
Great charts in a weak theme get hit easily here.
I almost don't want to see those setups.
Getting lured in is where I've been getting hit lately.
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$TWLO Just bought some over prior high.
Software still looks strong going into FOMC tomorrow.
Cup & handle, RS 92, RS line turning up..
That's leadership. Money's still showing up in the group even with data next.
Show more
The bond market has already done a lot of the Fed’s work.
With the 10-year above 5%, financial conditions are tightening before rates are even raised.
The market could actually rally on a dovish hike.
Show more
Semis were crushed and cyber ripped yesterday. $CRWD up 14%, $PANW up 13%.
When one side of a theme gets sold and the other side rips, that's rotation, not the trade breaking down.
The money didn't leave, it moved. Follow it.
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When the last hike is in sight, markets can run.
1994: hiking, SPX went nowhere (feels a lot like late-cycle growth tape right now).
1995: cycle looks done, launch.
AI worries will come and go.
Earnings + real infrastructure spend did the work then.
Same movie. Different cast.
Fed Funds vs SPX, 1994–99.
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Energy and utilities leading while breadth deteriorates. When defensives lead and $IWM can’t reclaim its 50-day, the burden stays on the market. Testing the waters, but I am very protective right now. That said, select AI names woke up and clawed back from the cliff’s edge.
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Cybersecurity ETF $CIBR is trading really well here, turning up off the 50sma as it is trending. Got lucky with $NET (plenty of other difficulty though) as some of those names shrug off today's weakness.
Chart by @marketsurge #IBDPartner#
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AI weekend: slowdown talk, evaluator talk, more safety noise.
That’s one side of the tape.
The other side is a wider attack surface as agents and prompts multiply.
$CRWD (long) sits in that problem/solution lane.
Solutions to real problems. That’s what I want to own.
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Parents: Say yes to coaching your kids. Say yes to the things you can do with them.
I know you're tired. I know you're busy.
But there are no do-overs.
One day, it won't be the money you left on the table that you regret most. It'll be the moments you left on the table.
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When the last hike is in sight, markets can run.
1994: hiking, SPX went nowhere (feels a lot like late-cycle growth tape right now).
1995: cycle looks done, launch.
AI worries will come and go.
Earnings + real infrastructure spend did the work then.
Same movie. Different cast.
Fed Funds vs SPX, 1994–99.
Show more
Focus names like $FCX gap up huge and then completely implode. We are scaling a profit whenever the tape gives us one, because odds strongly favor big winners reversing in this difficult environment. The burden is entirely on the market to prove it can hold. Survival first. The setups will be there when the tape turns.
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Cybersecurity ETF $CIBR is trading really well here, turning up off the 50sma as it is trending. Got lucky with $NET (plenty of other difficulty though) as some of those names shrug off today's weakness.
Chart by @marketsurge #IBDPartner#
Show more
Energy and utilities leading while breadth deteriorates. When defensives lead and $IWM can’t reclaim its 50-day, the burden stays on the market. Testing the waters, but I am very protective right now. That said, select AI names woke up and clawed back from the cliff’s edge.
Show more
Parents: Say yes to coaching your kids. Say yes to the things you can do with them.
I know you're tired. I know you're busy.
But there are no do-overs.
One day, it won't be the money you left on the table that you regret most. It'll be the moments you left on the table.
Show more
Calling it early, but yesterday changed the character of this tape.
$MTUM gave a clean pivot at the 50-day with $STX fresh off a double digit run. Nine times out of ten that setup is a buy, and it imploded. Now shorts have the ball unless things flag and reset properly.
A failed textbook entry is the tape telling you the odds just changed. The edge is recognizing it fast and adapting. I'm letting the new character show itself before I re-engage meaningfully.
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