Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code. - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal. So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

Pressure is BUILDING... Big Move incoming🔴 $MU sitting on top of the resistance turned support for almost 20 days now, with $NVDA trapping longs potentially at highs. Sector Rotation or Bears taking control?!👇

$SOFI is a shit stock I’m seeing this literally everywhere rn, thing is most ppl saying it have no clue about the fundamentals, HOWEVER the ppl screaming BUY BUY BUY were just as clueless Interest Rates are high and we just got another hike, when we broke out the narrative was shifting towards cuts and deflation… who could predict Iran + inflation spike from Oil? That directly hurts SoFi's business and anyone that relies on loans and refinancing, it’s just not a growth environment for those names, simple… That being said user growth keeps climbing and earnings have been steady to the upside, so if u understand this stock isnt exploding anytime soon its a decent name to sit on and forget about, same as when it was $11 a year or so back $SOFI wont get you rich quick thats for sure but ask someone to explain why it’s “shit” next time.

This COULD BE PRETTY BAD 🛑 $META Muse Ai looks at some short term headwinds with a slowdown on growth/downloads, but we need to know more wearables are coming... $MSFT $AMZN find BIG Buyers with Hyperscalers shrugging off OpenAi Fake news👇

Today would have been my Brother’s 35th birthday Over the last year and a half we just had a terrible relationship. I got bitter and held resentment towards him for a lot of things he probably wasn’t even aware of. Before things got bad between us he just sent me this last year, and he just said some stuff. Honestly probably the best talk or conversation we had in 10 years. You don’t realize how much it helps or benefits you, that someone who has known you your entire life sees who you are. Even when you don’t see it sometimes. It’s tough because these last 9-10 years it’s just been grind mode and you work these crazy hours, go to school, invest your time into your future and goals. And I got tunnel vision. I had to provide and focus on my son, then my wife and house bills just the future etc. Then you get to this point of like hey we did it, it was all worth it and the thought never hits you that some people won’t be there for it. I have very few regrets if any in life, but I’d give anything for just a hour with him again. Even if it was just sitting on smash bros on the GameCube for 30 minutes or watching some bullshit and hearing him yap the entire time. Miss you bro

Got my new Mac Studio setup and transferred everything from my M4 studio to my M5 Ultra studio in literally one click… Passwords, ALL my settings for my bots, my workflow completely synced. literally did everything for me I had to update nothing. Apples ecosystem dominates

$NVDA and $MU are buying about $300B of their own Stock... Nvidia's board added another $150B on sept 28 on top of the $80B from may, so theres $235B left to buy back through 2028, thats an insane amount of cash pointed right back at the stock Micron just went from a $10B program with about $2.16B left to a $35.16B max starting dec 9, it was in the 10-K that dropped oct 9, and they only bought $650M all of FY26 so this is a whole different gear companies dont throw this kind of money at shares they think are expensive imo, is this the floor under semis or just a way to make the numbers look good

THEY ARE GOING INSANE🛑 $SPCX & $NVDA just went NUCLEAR on the day, as mentioned from Friday, SpaceX continues just get fantastic news from the Government and new Compute deals with Anthropic. Nvidia finally gets the ATH breakout and confirms MAJOR Buybacks. THIS is next👇

$VST Not enough yet, we need to get over the 100 and 200ma to really be bullish. Still a great long term pickup. Could benefit A LOT from Nuclear hype and this Trump administration