THE BOJ IS RUNNING OUT OF REASONS NOT TO HIKE AGAIN Japan's core inflation increased to 2.1% in September from 1.7% in August, above the BoJ's 2% target. Inflation excluding fresh food and fuel, the measure the BoJ watches more closely, increased to 2.4% from 1.9%. That means price pressure is spreading beyond the energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Wholesale prices rose 6.8% in September, and Tokyo's inflation excluding fresh food and fuel already hit 3.0%. Core inflation was below 2% during both of this year's rate hikes but is now above target. Many BoJ officials remain cautious about raising rates at the October 29–30 meeting, but a rate hike in December is now widely expected. The problem is Japan's government debt sits above 200% of GDP, so every hike makes that debt more expensive to carry. The BoJ now faces a difficult choice between controlling inflation and avoiding higher debt-servicing costs as interest rates rise.

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