Today, more than 50 vehicles collided on a highway near Yambol, Bulgaria, due to thick fog, which is common at this time of year in Bulgaria. At least 10 people were killed and dozens injured.
Just more confirmation of Hanke’s Schoolboy Theory of History. It’s just one damn thing after another.
TODAY: One LAST CPI to cue a year-end RALLY or a SELL OFF.
The last CPI report before the Fed’s December meeting will be out in a few hours.
There will be no official YoY reading, as the 2025 shutdown left a gap in last October’s data.
So all eyes are on the MONTHLY numbers.
Economists expect October CORE CPI to rise by 0.2% MoM, while headline CPI is projected to add 0.3%.
What today’s CORE CPI number could mean:
🟢 0.1% → COOL. Hike odds drop, stocks and Bitcoin could rise
🟠 0.2% → AS EXPECTED. December hike stays on
🔴 0.3%+ → HOT. Bigger hike risk, stocks and Bitcoin could fall
A 0.1% difference could decide between a 25 bps and a 50 bps hike.
Markets now see an 99% chance of a December rate hike, up from 67% last week.
The macro backdrop:
1. September CPI climbed to 3.7% YoY from 3.4%. Today’s monthly print shows whether that momentum carried into October.
2. Over 70% of core services categories rose at least 3% YoY. Another hot services print would signal that inflation is still widespread.
3. Payrolls rose 165K and unemployment fell to 4.1%. With jobs holding up, a hotter-than-expected core CPI would strengthen the case for a bigger December hike.
Volatility is coming.
Today's CPI data is very crucial for the crypto market
At 8:30am ET, CPI data will be released with MoM expectations at 0.3%
If CPI MoM comes higher than 0.3%, the rate hike odds will go up, and we could see another dump
If CPI MoM comes lower than 0.3%, there could be a short squeeze
TODAY: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon sits down with CNBC's Leslie Picker for an exclusive interview at the Goldman Sachs Alternatives Summit.
Tune in to CNBC at 11 a.m. ET to watch.
Today I accepted the resignation of Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate of the Civil Division. Under his leadership, the Division pursued important affirmative litigation to challenge sanctuary policies and delivered key wins in lawsuits against local policies that endangered federal law enforcement. The Division also secured historic settlements to end illegal corporate DEI practices and shuttered dozens of clinics which were providing so-called “gender affirming care” to minors. We are grateful for Brett’s service at DOJ and wish him continued success.
Today is the day: Elysium Mainnet Day. ✧
Major trading platforms are integrating @Enter_Elysium, official RPC and explorer services are going live, and the network is opening up to everyone.
Volta is ready for day one.