Steve Hanke
@steve_hanke
Professor of Applied Economics @JohnsHopkins | Senior Contributing Columnist @Fortune | FX & Commodity Trader | Reagan White House | Views are my own
6.3K Following 858.4K Followers
Mortgage rates have reached the highest level since 2024.
Prior to the US’s war of choice in Iran, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was near 6.0%. Now that same rate has surged to 7.1%.
PROSPECTIVE HOMEOWNERS CAN THANK TRUMP FOR THEIR MISERY.
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#PAKWatch🇵🇰#: Today, THOUSANDS, led by CM Sohail Afridi, took to the streets of Peshawar to DEMAND THE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF IMRAN KHAN.
PAK = MILITARY RUNS THE SHOW = POLICE STATE.
FREE IMRAN KHAN.
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America's rice harvest is forecast to fall to its LOWEST level in 33 YEARS. Rough rice futures prices have SURGED by 69% this year.
JUST MORE FUEL FOR THE COMMODITY PRICE SUPER CYCLE.
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According to a Pew Research Center survey, 60% of Americans would be not too or not at all comfortable with a new data center operating in their area.
AI = LOTS OF HYPE THAT THE PUBLIC IS NOT BUYING.
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TRUMP'S GRAB BAG OF INTERVENTIONIST, SOCIALISTIC ECONOMIC POLICIES IS SENDING INTEREST RATES TO THE MOON.
BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises to 5.44%, its highest level since June 2004.
We are nearing a +500 basis point gain from the 2020 low.
Where is the US Treasury?
The cost to transport a Supertanker from the Middle East to Asia has hit a STAGGERING $1.2 MILLION/day. That's the highest price EVER.
REFINERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU.
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Since the start of the year, the price of diesel has SHOT UP MORE THAN 40% for Europeans.
TRUMP'S WAR OF CHOICE = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES = STAY LONG DIESEL.
South Africa’s inflation came in at 4.4%/yr in August.
Money supply (M2) is growing at 7.3%/yr, ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate range of 4.3-6.3%/yr, a range consistent with South Africa’s inflation target of 2-4%/yr.
THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.
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#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷#: OECD expects Turkey's inflation to fall from 31.5%/yr to 24.7%/yr by end of 2027.
Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 21.40%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, expect the official rate to fall further.
INFLATION = ERDOĞAN'S ACHILLES HEEL.
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Poland's inflation came in at 3.4%/yr in August, ABOVE its target of 2.5%/yr.
Money supply (M2) grew at 11.3%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 8.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Poland's 2.5%/yr inflation target.
THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY.
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In September 2025, dry bulk grain shipments moving through the Bosporus averaged ~23 vessels per day. So far this September, traffic has PLUMMETED to 9 per day.
THE NATO-UKRAINE WAR AGAINST RUSSIA HAS SHUT OFF THE RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN GRAIN TAPS.
STAY LONG WHEAT.
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#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷#: As Turkey’s parliament prepares to reconvene on Oct. 1, the fate of jailed Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş remains unresolved. There is still no clear movement on his 10-YEAR IMPRISONMENT under Ankara’s peace process.
TURKEY'S KURDISH PROBLEM REMAINS UNRESOLVED.
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#IranWatch🇮🇷#: The rial has STABILIZED.
Today, it APPRECIATED 0.04% against the USD overnight.
Over the five days, the rial has DEPRECIATED 0.65% against the USD.
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷#: Turkey blocked 194 X accounts, including economists and journalists, for posting about the $18.3 billion fund scandal.
One economist's account was blocked for asking: "Who allowed this to happen?"
PRES. ERDOĞAN'S TURKEY = NO FREE PRESS = NO PROBLEM.
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#PAKWatch🇵🇰#: In preparation for the planned Sept. 27 protests against the military gov't in Islamabad, ASIM MUNIR'S MILITARY GOV'T PLANS TO ENACT AN INTERNET SHUTDOWN.
PAK = A POLICE STATE.
FREE IMRAN KHAN AND HIS FAMILY.
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Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in August, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target.
Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM.
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#IranWatch🇮🇷#: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 128%/yr.
That's the WORLD'S SECOND HIGHEST, behind Venezuela.
I REMAIN THE ONLY ACCURATE SOURCE FOR INFLATION MEASUREMENTS IN IRAN.
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FREE TRADE = PROSPERITY. PROTECTIONISM = POVERTY.
THREE CHEERS FOR FREE TRADE.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank plans to fund up to $7 billion in critical minerals and energy projects in Argentina.
IT'S ALWAYS RISKY TO MAKE LOANS TO THE WORLD'S GREATEST DEADBEAT.
Stay tuned.
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Last year, 48 tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 22.
This year, 2 tankers crossed on September 22.
THANKS TO PRES. TRUMP, THE STRAIT IS, FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES, CLOSED.
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