Saw a lot of bad takes on Tether’s Q2 results, some quick thoughts:
- Headline loss of -$4.2bn is almost entirely M2M on gold, BTC and public equities (incl. XXI) rather than the underlying stablecoin business model
- Net operating profit of $1.5bn shows the strength of the stablecoin business: 4% running on $140bn of T-bills and repos with a very small cost base
- Equity movements from the parent for the second quarter in a row. The issuer was historically paying hefty excess profits to the parent (both due to operating income + BTC/XAU going up) so this is the first time capital has flowed the other way. Two takeaways: capital is fungible inside the group (am expecting $20bn+ of retained earnings at the parent) either in cash or in kind (the parent has a lot of investments), and there's a clear willingness to keep USDT overcollateralised, albeit buffer smaller than historically.
Tether bought the dip:
+1,796 BTC (+1.9%)
+14 tons of gold (+10.6%)
Tether's balance sheet mix keeps shifting.
BTC is now only 3% of assets vs. 10% for gold.
Secured loans are down from the 2025 peak of $17bn to $13.5bn: likely the least liquid asset on their books, but imo good quality as collateralised with BTC and to a lesser extent XAUT: may reflect either less demand for leverage in the broader crypto ecosystem or Tether shifting to a more liquid balance sheet.
One last change I don't think anyone noticed: minimum ratings for repos have reduced by one notch down to A-3. Cantor is rated F3 with Fitch (which is equivalent to A-3) so the change could have been done to allow them as a counterparty.
m2c.