🚀ASST MOON MATH🚀
I wanted to stress test ASST for 5 years with Strive buying Bitcoin using ONLY SATA, then funding the SATA dividends by selling Bitcoin.
Basically, a handicapped common equity model.
Assumptions:
100 BTC bought per business day
13% SATA dividend
Dividend paid by selling Bitcoin
No common dilution
No debt
Valued at today’s CEBE NAV multiple
Starting point: 15,009 BTC, $495.95M preferred outstanding
This isolates what happens when ASST common is funded by a 13% preferred cost of capital.
Year 5 results:
$100k BTC: negative CEBE
$150k BTC: $20.16
$200k BTC: $74.89
$300k BTC: $186.91
$500k BTC: $415.52
SATA is not free capital.
It is a 13% senior claim attached to the balance sheet.
So the common equity outcome becomes a race between:
Bitcoin appreciation + BTC accumulation versus the preferred dividend drag.
If BTC underperforms, the wrapper fee starts eating common alive.
If BTC performs, existing fixed-dollar claims compress in BTC terms while the treasury keeps compounding.
That is why the model gets ugly under $150k BTC, starts working around $200k, and gets completely feral at $300k+.
The common shareholder should see a capital structure stress test.
Bitcoin compounds, and each issued dollar claim stays fixed.
That spread is the trade.
And remember, this model is intentionally handicapped.
It assumes:
No ASST issuance, no debt, no alternate dividend funding, basically no other tools in the toolkit.
It only assumes 126,000 BTC purchased gross over 5 years, funded through SATA.
At $500k BTC by 2031, this model puts ASST around $415.52.
That is nearly a 25x from today’s $16.79.
Pretty crazy numbers, especially considering this version forces them to sell Bitcoin every day to pay the dividend.
I think they accumulate more than 126k BTC gross over time, and I doubt dividends are funded entirely through BTC sales forever.
But even in this brutally handicapped version, if Bitcoin hits $500k by 2031, the common equity starts looking absolutely deranged.
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