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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Author of The Great Harvest | @BitcoinForCorps | Advisor @saturn_credit | MSTR + MTPLF + ASST HODLER |
Joined January 2025
276 Following    85.3K Followers
On November 21, 2024, MSTR hit $543 intraday. They had 331,200 Bitcoin at roughly $98k per coin. $543 per share x 230.477m basic shares = $125 billion market cap Yes, a $125 billion market cap with around $32.5 billion of Bitcoin. That was around 3.8x the value of their Bitcoin NAV. With Strategy's current Bitcoin stack of 847,363 coins, a Bitcoin price of $98,000 would lift them back to $83 billion of Bitcoin. The same premium as November 2024 would be a $315.4 billion market cap versus them holding only $83 billion of Bitcoin. This is not going to happen. I would love to be proven incorrect, but there isn't a snowball's chance in hell. I continue to see this same suggestion for Strategy "wait until MSTR hits a 2.5x mNAV before selling shares". Uh, no. This idea that the market is just going to magically reward them a market cap of $207.5 billion when they have $83 billion of Bitcoin is nonsensical at their size. $124.5 billion in premium to MSTR? Not going to happen. 2.5x mNAV guidance would be foolish, this is obvious for anyone crunching the math. Pick a more reasonable premium number and continue to buy Bitcoin when advantageous for the long term.
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