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Alex
@AlexanderKim120
South Korea FICC manager with structured products(IR, Credit, FX, and Commodities) & Prop trading(cross-asset view)
Joined February 2023
314 Following    5.1K Followers
I completely misjudged the NFP. The print actually looks quite good. Therefore, I think the market reaction itself is very reasonable. I'm not reading too much into the rebound of the NFP headline number itself. Since I wasn't overly fixated on the July print, the rebound in Total NFP wasn't all that shocking to me. However, what I paid close attention to today was AHE. It seems quite significant that AHE showed slight rebound momentum, even when factoring in the revisions. Now, we just need to see if this kind of data can be sustained for two or more releases. What I am curious about, though, is whether the Participation rate will maintain this level going forward. A UBS report covered this in quite some detail, but seeing it persist like this for several months... is a bit puzzling. As for my positioning, I plan to wait it out until the upcoming CPI print. The immediate loss on my positions is quite painful, but this was due to an incorrect forecast for the print; I think it's still too early to say that my overall thesis has been significantly compromised.
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