My take: When will Tesla’s new initiatives make a significant difference on the stock price? Wall Street needs to see more “evidence” to include the new business in the models. I also think the rerates will happen in stages as Wall Street keeps expanding out the assessable market for each product like FSD or RoboTaxi. Some potential triggers: ♦️A) There is a Surprise like Nationwide RoboTaxi regulation or OEM leasing FSD or ♦️B) WS sees revenues that move the needle on new business lines. We are seeing partial rerates on base assumptions now for FSD take rates and Tesla energy, but only placeholders for Optimus and RoboTaxi. ♦️C) WS expands both the TAM and/or market share. Events like these will propel TSLA to a higher range where we don’t see TSLA return to today’s prices. IMO they are coming soon; just not yet. We also need supply constraints - like chips - solved.

SHOULD TESLA SELL THE CYBERCAB?YES!! Tesla has two options to scale FSD: ♦️ Asset Lite: Get interest from the public of those that would be Robotaxi fleet managers (Tesla already has the sign up form and got over 77,000 clicks on it), ie let the public buy, charge and maintain RoboTaxi hubs where they live. This model requires less cash outlay from Tesla AND scales RoboTaxi faster and to more areas. ♦️Tesla Owned Fleet. Tesla will own and control the fleet (like now). This model is best while rapid iteration is desired and for large cities where Tesla wants enough vehicles to enable quicker wait times and more service. A few days CyberCab production could serve a city the size of San Diego reasonably with fast wait times, whereas private fleet owners might not. IMO, Tesla will use a combination of the two models. ♦️Tesla owned fleets where the data is needed (like initial rollout to a new geographic area) and the size of the city demands more vehicles; ♦️And private owner operated RoboTaxi fleets to scale rapidly outsize the biggest cities without excessive capex spend. At Elon Musk’s goal of 30 cents per mile fares at scale, Tesla earns the same per AV manufactured if it owns the fleet outright or has individuals own and operate RoboTaxis. So the business need becomes the deciding factor. 🧵

TSLA/SPCX MERGER Anyone still not see the argument for a merger? EXHIBIT A: The Terafab, the Tesla/SpaceX joint venture, extensive site prep, for a project just announced at the end of March ! Does this look like a buildout time frame that accommodates the endless bureaucracy and needless red tape required by conflict committees and the JV? Both companies need chips to scale. Suppliers will supply enough chips for some growth, but not that type of growth that sparks a rerate. Chips are a nonnegotiable. DELETE THE PART The companies operating separately remains the unnecessary process to delete. The merger would unlock tremendous potential upside - bigger opportunities than either company could accomplish alone. A share exchange ratio WILL look at near term revenue projections and be adjusted accordingly. We don’t have to wait for CyberCab to scale, that will be included. And most important: The missions have converged - and a merger will make Elon Musk’s life easier.

TESLA/ SpaceXAI The “Elon Musk is a distracted CEO” myth couldn’t survive 2026. The Tesla + SpaceXAI 2026 scorecard: Cybercab rides, Optimus lines, Semi volume, Starship V3, Starlink V5, X Money, SpaceX IPO, Colossus leased to Anthropic and Google. Just for starters. Ask yourself how much of this is in the Street’s models and DCF? Almost none of it! Ground is being cleared, supply deals inked, and new products launched. Both companies have tremendous upside if they monetize even a fraction of this list. We are still early.

WALL STREET UNDERESTIMATES ROBOTAXI ♦️Jason Calcanis predicts Tesla will get a 40% share of RoboTaxis. ♦️Jason Calacanis also thinks the whole sector will grow 30x - and has bets across many companies (a standard angel investment practice).

A TALE OF TWO COMPANIES: Tesla + SpaceX SUPPLY CONSTRAINT ♦️QUESTION: Where exactly do you think the chips are coming from to support Tesla’s growth - that in turn leads to the projected many-fold valuation increase for RoboTaxis and Optimus? TESLA NEEDS SPACEX - & VICE VERSA ♦️Elon Musk said chip suppliers told Tesla they “aren’t comfortable” supplying the volumes Tesla requires. Terafab solves this constraint. Companies without their own fabs may be capped at ~20% YOY growth. Tesla’s Terafab investment starts with ~$3B in the research lab; real-estate filings show SpaceX’s potential commitment on the Terafab at ~$50–55B (with total project value potentially far higher). ♦️Wall Street isn’t going to rerate Tesla without the chip-supply problem solved. That anticipated run-up you’re waiting for? It doesn’t happen without the SpaceX joint Terafab initiative. Terafab rollout encounters problems? Tesla RoboTaxi and Optimus growth projections are negatively impacted as is TSLA’s stock price. ♦️Tesla and SpaceX NEED EACH OTHER. SpaceX is already beneficial to Tesla. The joint initiatives — Terafab, AI Space Compute, and Digital Optimus — offer upside that dwarfs today’s trajectories. 🧵Next: Delete the Process Step