Project Suncatcher is launching a prototype datacenter satellite October 1st on a SpaceX Falcon 9. Some new info in this NYT report: plans for a flock of more than 80 networked satellites flying in formation, and a custom satellite the length of a soccer field.

Australia has been hacked. 'And today, I spoke with the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, to express Australia's extreme concern about this incident. And I also expressed my disappointment that it took the company way too long to inform the government what had occurred, and the nature of the way that that notification occurred as well was unacceptable.'

Great thread. It's all true. When I've said similar things in the past, people have accused me of hyping up what the models will eventually be capable of. That's not why I post. I don't work for any of the labs. I don't take money from any of them. I've never taken money to promote anything. I came here for one reason: to warn people about what was coming. Everything happening now is a different tiny piece of the same pattern. You can see it everywhere if you look. Terence Tao, almost exactly two years ago, on OpenAI's o1: 'The experience seemed roughly on par with trying to advise a mediocre, but not completely incompetent, (static simulation of a) graduate student. However, this was an improvement over previous models, whose capability was closer to an actually incompetent (static simulation of a) graduate student. It may only take one or two further iterations of improved capability (and integration with other tools, such as computer algebra packages and proof assistants) until the level of '(static simulation of a) competent graduate student' is reached, at which point I could see this tool being of significant use in research-level tasks.' Terence Tao, four days ago: 'I mean it's it's it's amazing just how much we are willing to change everything without having any idea what's what's going to happen afterwards. It's it's extremely nonlinear dynamics. Any kind of monotone, one-dimensional thinking - well, oh, a little bit of this is good, therefore a lot of it is going to be a lot better - one of the lessons of math is that most systems don't work like that. Especially if you 10x, 100x things. So, you know, I mean, we're... we have to slow down. I mean, this is, it's insane this pace, and there's no reason to be this fast. There's no reason at all.' He has seen it. I'm not posting this to belittle him, or what he's feeling. For I have been through it myself. I felt it four years ago, the first time I saw the shape of this. Right now the world is seeing that same shape, that same pattern, in what is happening in math. But this is not about math. OpenAI is not a mathematics company. It is an intelligence company. They didn't put serious resources into math until a few weeks ago, and look what has happened since. This was not a matter of model capability either. It was a matter of resources, of allocation. Of compute, more of which is coming online every day. Once there is enough of it, the models will expand into more spheres of human expertise, and then into all of them. All the work of the mind. And it will play out there exactly as it is playing out now in math. Everyone will go through what Tao is going through, because all of us have something that means to us what math means to him. But this is not about math, or art, or copyright. This is about everything, because it generalizes to everything. Pacing the Frontier is not about regulatory capture, IPOs, or crippling the competition. It's part of it, sure, but it's not the main reason. The main reason is fear. Everything happened faster over the last six months than anyone at Anthropic or OpenAI expected. If you know anyone who works there, you know this is true. This isn't a secret. The people who work there are saying it openly. The old timelines are all blown up. RSI isn't two years out. It's not even a year away. I think we get the real thing by next summer. That's what they've seen internally, and that's the real reason for Pacing the Frontier. After we reach that, I think we will hit the next milestone really quickly. And after that, everything in this world will change. We are not ready for it. We wouldn't be ready if we had another ten years. We only make it through now with the help of extremely capable models, and I think trying to stop now would doom us all. But I have never once, in these last four years, believed that we were going to stop anyway. I don't even think we're going to slow down. We're going straight in. And the only way out is through.

President Trump announced that he is changing the name of Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence. I transcribed this live from his address to the UN. 'The United States also rejects any scheme for globalist control of Artificial Intelligence, being spoken of so much now. Here and after officially called Super Intelligence. Changing the name. The use of 'Artificial' makes it sound fake. It makes intelligence sound fake, and it is not fake. It’s actually amazing, the opposite of what they report. From this day forward, all United States documents, and hopefully the world's, will be changed to use the much more accurate term 'Super' as opposed to 'Artificial.' So it’s Super Intelligence.'

President Trump just now on Truth Social: 'I'm not going to stifle Growth, of something that will be bigger than the Industrial Revolution, or the Internet, itself. We will be careful, and that's why we have the Department of Justice, and other Law Enforcement bodies, that will rein things in if we have to, but I will only encourage Al or, SI (SUPER INTELLIGENCE)!

Politico has posted a long article about the Fable drama, aka Anthropic vs The White House, it's a good read if you are interested in the events that took place during the negotiations.

"stochastic parrot" was a mimetically-fit cognitive virus that spread from 2021-2025; it temporarily blinded many gifted people to the nature of AI progress, burning up crucial years in which they could have helped think through the response to the situation.

parents the world over today are forcing their children into misguided rat races for some status ladder that almost certainly won’t exist by the time they come out the other side. the world is changing rapidly. let them put down their grinding and keep their wits about them

GPT-6 Astra has cracked *another* German WWI radio message encrypted with ADFGVX. This message, "RICHI-240", has a single known key, but, to my knowledge, was never cracked by humans before. My guess is that humans never solved this message because it has 20 characters *missing* for reasons unknown: the "240" in "RICHI-240" signifies that there should be 240 characters in the message, whereas in fact there are only 220. For purposes of cracking this cipher, the big problem is that it's not clear *where* these characters are missing from, because the order of the characters in the message is scrambled using the key. Thus, inserting the characters into the message in even slightly the wrong place leads to utterly nonsensical results. All this was no problem for GPT-6 Astra, which tried the key with various combinations of hypothetical places from which the characters could have been missing and scored the resulting blocks of text using patterns common in the German language. Relatively early on in the process, this approach rendered coherent German text! Inserting the 20 missing characters as a string between the 4th and 5th lines of text in the message worked! The message reads: AN O H L 11 ARMEE ALPENKORPS RAUM PETERREVE VERBASZ 21? 21? ? RDD LINIE NAGYBESSKEREK VERSECZ VERSECZ VON SERBEN BESETZT The three question marks you see are numerical digits, which cannot be restored by decryping (all we know is that they are three different digits from the following set: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9). And so, Astra was forced to check its results against historical WWI records. This search unearthed a French intelligence telegram, which described the situation in the area on November 11, 1918 and identified the German 217 - 219th infantry division and 6th Reserve Division in the area. Plugging in this missing information, we get the final result: AN O H L 11 ARMEE ALPENKORPS RAUM PETERREVE VERBASZ 217 219 6RDD LINIE NAGYBESSKEREK VERSECZ VERSECZ VON SERBEN BESETZT Or, in English: TO SUPREME ARMY COMMAND 11TH ARMY: ALPINE CORPS IN THE PETERREVE-VERBASZ AREA. 217TH - 219TH DIVISIONS, AND 6TH RESERVE DIVISION ON THE NAGYBECSKEREK-VERSEC LINE. VERSEC OCCUPIED BY SERBS. Astra checked the official history of the Serbian city of Vršac (Versec in Hungarian, and Werschetz in German) and found that, on November 10, 1918, German troops left the city and it was occupied by Serbian forces. RICHI-240 was sent at 3:38am on the following day to the German Supreme Army Command, informing them of this fact.

The consensus for some time has been that we are getting a new Anthropic model ahead of the IPO (and that's not all), so I think we can safely say this is 100%. There were some new developments today from @synthwavedd though, who says that new Sonnet, Opus, and Fable are all in stealth testing. In fact, if you are using Claude, it's possible that you are in an early test flight and using one of them right now. So we may be getting a triple release from Anthropic, not just one new model.