Anna Wong(@AnnaEconomist):Tomorrow, one possible outcome after the Fed hiked, is that we may discover that tightening doesn’t lower long-term yields. If that happens, it would confirm that fiscal is the culprit in the whodunnit saga. By raising the government’s marginal funding cost, a rate hike enlarges future interest deficits and increases the amount of debt Treasury must place with private investors. If investors doubt that fiscal policy will offset those costs, the term premium could rise, pushing long yields higher and reinforcing the deterioration in debt service.

2026.09.16 03:09

Tomorrow, one possible outcome after the Fed hiked, is that we may discover that tightening doesn’t lower long-term yields. If that happens, it would confirm that fiscal is the culprit in the whodunnit saga. By raising the government’s marginal funding cost, a rate hike enlarges future interest deficits and increases the amount of debt Treasury must place with private investors. If investors doubt that fiscal policy will offset those costs, the term premium could rise, pushing long yields higher and reinforcing the deterioration in debt service.

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